YM!

Hereditary starts in a hour but what I am seeing in July. Eighth Grade Mamma Mia! Here we go again (aka how to trigger @WrathOfHan) Ant Man and The Wasp Mission Impossible: Fallout The Equalizer 2 Won’t You be my Neighbor Plan on catching Fallen Kingdom and maybe Hotel Transylvania 3 (me am toon loonie). I got to catch up on a shitton of movies I’ve only seen 7 movies this year.

Only like a few people said I2 over $700M, the forum as whole wasn’t thinking $700M

The most walkup based CBM is Homecoming here, but at the same time a lot of big movies here have easily passed Homecoming at the start, but at the same time the double whammy of I2/FK is still fresh on people’s minds so not surprised. We should have a clear concept soon. I’m not too concerned of it passing JL as it was the most frontloaded. There’s still a lot of time for the Ant Man.

No, not in the slightest. The original Incredibles is Pixar’s 4th biggest original out of 13 original movies behind IO, Nemo and Up, and places 8th overall. Adjusted, it’s at $385M. I agree $700M is insanity but $200M-$300M is just as much insanity if not even more so, especially considering the barren family market and only MU out of Pixar’s main 4 (TS, Nemo, Monsters and Incredibles) decreases From it’s predecessor and that was an unwanted prequel.

Been thinking about this since Pokémon: Let’s Go was announced but can Detective Pikachu do big like, $100M+/$300M+/$1B+ big?

July should be nice Box Office wise. Ant Man and The Wasp should at least do over $210M but I wouldn’t be surprised if it followed the first, smaller OW ($70M) great legs, HT3 will also benefit from lack of family movies and probably be about the same as HT2 ($170M), Skyscraper May miss $100M but an $80M-$90M finish would be good, Mamma Mia should be strong and do in the $120M-$150M range, Fallout at worst will do $180M, personally think $200M+ is happening and TTG, I’m thinking a performance around The Emoji Movie seems right.

Solid China debut for Incredibles 2, wonder how legs will be.

I’m finally going to see Hereditary today.

Speaking of unrealistic for Incredibles 2

JWFK should have solid legs, especially due to a lackluster next weekend, and the 4th Of July holiday soon. It may get to $400M, a huge drop from JW1 nonetheless but should bode well for JW3. I2 had a CBM esque drop but should rebound with summer weekdays and this weekend as well, after all Homecoming had a 62% drop and 2.86x multiple, not to mention will benefit from lack of big family movies as well as double features from Ant Man and Robin. Should finish at $550M at absolute worst.

When was the last time we had two back to back $150M+ OWs?

Especially Sky.

I bet 50 points to one person Teen Titans GO! To The Movies outgrosses Smallfoot domestically. I bet 75 points Skyscraper goes under $100M domestic.

North Shore Cinema Update: Ant Man and The Wasp is tracking 20% behind Homecoming ($94.1M) and 37% behind Justice League ($58.9M) at the same time. This is solid so far as AMATW has less showings than at least JL. If we use just Ultrascreen (PLF) it’s 28% behind JL ($66.5M). My guess is somewhere in the $70M-$90M range. Hotel Transylvania 3 has no tracking comps at the same point but is the fourth biggest start for an animated movie I’ve tracked (behind The Star, DM3 and I2) but that’s not saying much. Skyscraper has no tickets sold then again it’s not really a presale movie nor get a good idea a week or two before release.

But is he bald in this one?

Is Westworld good, I want to get into it.

Surprised at the delay especially because they already have a trailer finished.

Piracy tends not to have much of an effect here.

Thicc legs

Let me dream.

On a side note I can see a handful of films in the $200M-$300M range: Ant Man 2, Fallout, Venom, Halloween, Bohemian, Grinch, Beasts 2, Ralph 2, Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Spiderverse. Poppins and Robin will be at $300M+

Had Lego Ninjago and Lego Batman never happened, LEGO 2 would be gunning for $100M OW.

Beasts 2, Ant Man 2 and Venom have the best chance at an $100M+ OW but all look like longshots. Beasts 2 might suffer as Beasts 1 didn’t have people craving more, AM2 needs way too big of a jump and arguably opening after two big movies with the same target audience might hurt, and Venom although trailer views has been impressive depends largely on quality, if it is shit, it’s toast. Grinch killed it chance after shitty trailer, Halloween needs more buzz, Ralph 2 and Poppins have a five day, and Aquaman has too much competition.

I have over a dozen of failed clubs here (seriously look some of them up) but I own up to my miscalculations.