I’m conflicted about Coco.
On one hand, it’s a Pixar movie, has a Frozen short attached to it, great reviews, the last good family movie since Boss Baby and last big one since DM3, it has not to much competition to worry about (DH2 is going sub $100M and the other animated film next to it won’t make anything in comparison), there’s also the possibility that this can attract a lot of Latino families as well.
On the other hand, the buzz seems way muted for Coco, both of the recent trailer views combined is less than 3M, marketing can be a problem ala TGD, the Frozen short that’s attached to it can very well play on ABC a few weeks after, Thor and JL can also draw away a lot of families, I can $300M and $400M for both respectively, and even though it might attract Latino families it doesn’t always work (see PATF and BOL).
I am going to go with $50M/$220M.