The Fast and the Furiosa
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Posts posted by The Fast and the Furiosa
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Not sure about the Maleficent IM, you can spin it a great many ways. Aladdin this year was 12.8x with a boosted Sunday, but with much larger previews and being in May. Dumbo has 17 with possible spring break loading. I would settle in the 15 range given October
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I wonder how Parasite is gonna hold up, there’s some loose Jojo shows starting tonight
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19% of schools were off yesterday. Curious how that’s gonna affect the likes of Addams and Abominable today
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27 minutes ago, excel1 said:
$20m+ previews
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1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:
This is an oddly really good drop compared to past late September animation. -73% compared to:
Smallfoot -84%Ninjago -86.6%
Storks -85%
HT2 -84%
Boxtrolls -85%
Cloudy Meatballs 2 -86%
HT1 -86%
Viewed another way its 27% hold is basically double what these did (near exactly double Ninjago's hold). Was there a Canadian holiday or something?
Yesterday was Rosh Hashanah. Couple school districts out. See September 10th of last year
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5 minutes ago, Porthos said:
Beating Venom isn't that much to write home about given Atom's growth this past year plus, even with losing Regal.
Beating It 2? Okay, now we're talking as that's a direct R-rated comp from a movie released just weeks ago.
Also lower than John Wick 3 🤔 feel like the range is still wide on this one
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45 minutes ago, Porthos said:
Just took a spin around Sacramento for Maleficent 2, and you know what? It's not that terrible for a film 28 days out. I don't have many entries for family films that far out. In fact, all I have is Pika Pika, which had been on sale for only two days at that point.
Right now Maleficent 2 is running at about 94.3% of Pika Pika (5.38m).
Now, lots of caveats as always. Pika Pika started sales at T-29 and I'm using it's final number for the equivalent day, while Maleficent 2 has had tickets on sale for, what a little more than a week now? So a little bit of a lead time for it. Also Pika Pika didn't do THAT terrible in its T-26 to T-14 time frame, and I don't have any idea if Maleficent 2 can match it on those days if early demand has already been burnt.
Still, 199 tickets sold region wide a month before release for a family film isn't a disaster by any means. Not a sign of a breakout either, though. But, yeah. 5m previews might indeed be on the table. Might take another look in a week or so and see if the direct comp against Pika Pika is holding or not.===
*thinks*As ludicrous as the comp is, Maleficent 2 is doing 2.26x Hobbs and Shaw (13.11m) at the same point in time, and they had similar pre-sale length. Perhaps slightly more on point is that Maleficent 2 is doing 40.9% of It 2, which also had a relatively long pre-sale window, and that comps to 4.3m.
So comping somewhere between 4.3 and 5.3m at the moment? Maybe? 10x that (which sounds right for a family film that has 7pm previews) and we get 43m to 53m? Maybe 45m to 50m if we want to tighten the range?
Maybe tracking IS on point after all.
If anything, 4.3-5.3 would mean that Deadline is lowballing the tracking a bit. Have to think multi is at least a 12x in october
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Yeah there aren’t to be any comps at this page for Joker sales. The frontloaded nature of the DC audience has me at a pause; we know they will show up in droves, but can it get others in the room?
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22 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:
It 2 had sold 239 tickets by your T-1 day update so this seems really good.
The caution is It’s T-1 is at a different time distance than Joker’s T-1 to release
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1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:
Disney fumbling the ball how, exactly?
More like they inherited a really weak 2019 Fox slate.
Yeah it’s basically this, Ford vs Ferrari, and some of the searchlight stuff (we await Spies in Disguise). Other films like Art of Racing in the rain were DOA
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Deadline also said 2.2 for the sneaks last Thursday, which some of the members here had. Well done
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17 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:
A pretty different perspective! I dunno if I agree but I thought it was interesting.
I can see a slightly boosted Fallout type run from Joker, which would be excellent for it
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6 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:
Wait, Jatinder didn't specify but is that 26 mil pure friday?
Looks to be so
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Interesting, normally RTH reports the Friday including previews. Having a Preview - True Friday close to Halloween’s 3.3 would be very surprising given being a sequel and early start
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A note: week over week is about to be a somewhat useless metric as more schools enter the fray
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6 hours ago, 8wombi7 said:
Congrats to everyone who did well!
Brutal since we faced each other. Congrats!
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14 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
The nearest round off 5 or 0 on lower side for a conservative estimate.
Any chance friday and saturday gets adjusted upwards to hit 195? Not a lot of incentive at this point, but it’s a nice number
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10 minutes ago, cannastop said:
Why do you assume this?
Because its summer and not March
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8 minutes ago, Porthos said:
re: TLK's internal multi.
I have been harping on the fact that there were a TON of showtimes on preview night and how that might impact the internal multi for weeks now. I think we can't ignore that when we compare TLK to films that didn't come close to the same number of showtimes on opening night.
Not to mention that even though both are summer, July is a far cry from June
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13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
Did TS4 get the double feature boost from TLK I expected for Aladdin? Amazing hold. Totally locked to beat TS3 now and maybe by a decent margin too.
Not like either film needed it to hit the milestones, but toy story 4 did get the majority of them
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3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
I know it's not an all time juggernaut. At best it's a slightly more successful BatB. At worst, it's Ultron 2.0. Far cry from the movie that was supposed to break the box office.
Youll end up as an outlier as well ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:
No, but 500 is far from a lock. Not gonna be nearly as big of a fail for me as all of the people who said 600+ and especially not those who said 800+ (and there were many).
Youve seen 1 day of actual numbers. You know pretty much nothing
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1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:
Jon Favreau’s Lion King gets an A CinemaScore and 4 stars throughout with general audiences, parents, and kids under 12 on PostTrak.
Uptick for kids, slightly down for parents from Thursday
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For every far from home, there is an endgame. He gave an unfathomable number and ended up underpredicting lol
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Weekend Thread: Estimates - Mal2 36, Jokah 29.2, Zombi2 26.7, Addams 16, Gemini 8.5 | Parasite 1.2 (37.6K), Lighthouse 420K (52K), Jojo 350K (70K avg)
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Thanks for all the updates Charlie