[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo]

9 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

I have a question about Top Gun 2. Could we expect it to be a box office hit after we see no position in Fandnago's list for it? I couldn't remember the last time a A-level military Hollywood movie earned huge money, maybe American Sniper? But can we expect TG2 to be another AS because I'm not sure if the former could bring the same feeling to audience. 

I think it’s being fairly overpredicted across the board. Something like this would be perfect for Father’s Day. It should do better than 100 mil total but more than 150 would definitely be an overperformance

[Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Yesterday first read was 30. 27.5 was from Keyser's number.

Yep, and Keyser’s number would have indicated that due to Canada business yesterday that he cannot see with the MTC numbers 

[Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019]

14 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

LW rounded up to 6m?! Nice!

 

hmm seems like a steep drop for Gems 😕

Seems normal. Wolf of Wallstreet dropped 27%. The drop from true Wednesday is actually better than that here

[Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019]

1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

SW: 30

J2: 10.5

F2: 5.5

LW: 5.75-6

SiD: 4.25

KO: 3.25

Did Uncut Gems drop out of the top 6?

[Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Talk about eyes spinning lol 🤯 lets hope that J2 doesnt drop that much

Yeah, it’s weird that Jumanji plays so much like a kids movie but doesn’t follow frozen for the holidays. Did this in 2017 too. I’m guessing this shows the power of Frozen in Canada versus Jumanji

[THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE]

1 minute ago, Thelasttroll said:

the fact of the matter is no one has been able to explain how we have supposedly gotten too much Star Wars since 2015 when the mcu has put out 3-4x more films and absolutely no one (by which i mean fans not old out of touch directors) is complaining 

Mostly due to the fact that almost all Star Wars movies look and feel the same whereas Marvel as of late switches up the genre and tone

[THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

I thought they already did that for previews...I doubt $40.0M, it probably did fall about $38.5M, but they'll just even it out in the Fri number b/c a 4 looks WAAY better for a front number than a 3...

Who knows. It’s also possible that our MTC tracking underindexed slightly because we don’t have the 3rd one, now fully operational with a subscription plan

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo]

Let’s rely on the nationwide data. It’s always gonna vary from area to area. For example, mine showed a 48% bump in this 24 hour period compared to the previous 

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo]

For my area even with bigger cineplexes, black Christmas is getting split starting tomorrow. It’s just gonna vary from place to place based on need

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo]

Not to mention Solo was the first Summer Star Wars movie in 13 years. Behaviors change with the season 

[Weekend Thread: Actuals - Jumanji 2 $59.25M | Frozen 2 $19.07M | Knives Out $9.14M | Richard Jewell $4.68M | Black Christmas $4.24M]

7 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Ko 2.6

RJ 1.7 True Friday

BC 1.2 TF

Any word on Ford Charlie? Thanks as always

[Monday Dec 09]

Gonna assume it’s the globes helping those films out 

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo]

11 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Dont see any signs to it really out opening TLJ unless it is far more backloaded. 

Sunday should be better percentage wise as all schools are gonna be out on Monday the 23rd. Small difference at the least

[THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Frozen 85.25 3-Day, 123.75 5-Day. Thanksgiving record! | KO 27/41.7, FvF 13.2/19, ABDITN 11.8/17.3, Q&S 11.7/15.8 | BLACK FRIDAY SALE UNTIL SUNDAY - GOLD ACCOUNTS 25% OFF]

Anyone who knows what SW9 is going to do is just throwing a dart at the board at this point. Doesn’t belong in this thread anyway

[THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Frozen 85.25 3-Day, 123.75 5-Day. Thanksgiving record! | KO 27/41.7, FvF 13.2/19, ABDITN 11.8/17.3, Q&S 11.7/15.8 | BLACK FRIDAY SALE UNTIL SUNDAY - GOLD ACCOUNTS 25% OFF]

Drop for Frozen probably expected given how high tuesday and Wednesday were. Very good for Knives Out, 40+ 5 day is close to guaranteed if that holds 

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo]

4 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Yeah, see this is what I am thinking too. The comps say $25-$30 million and it has not really changed much in the past month. Frozen 2 tickets never took off at the last minute. $12-$13 million was expected early on. Then it went to $9-$11 million. It ended up with $8.5 million because the last week never saw much of a spike. I am not sure how we can expect TROS to jump up by double.

 

So, @Jedi JatWhat do you think the preview number will be? 

Aren’t those comps for final count from our trackers, as in, if today was day of previews, 25-30 is where it you’ll be today? 

[FROZEN II WEEKEND THREAD | 130.26M OW | BLACK FRIDAY WEEK SALE: Gold Accounts 25% OFF | I like warm hugs and I cannot lie | No Knives Out Spoilers :)]

Thank you as always for the numbers Charlie. Interested to see how F2 legs out in the long run

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo]

14 minutes ago, Menor said:

Less than 25% to next week from the data I scraped. Thus if we know that F2 is more than 150% of TS4, take 75% of that you still get 113%, and we know it's lagging TS4 in preview sales as well. Remove that, FSS should be ahead by an even bigger margin. I am relatively confident that Friday presales will be $15 million+ leading to 40+ pure OD and 55+ Saturday.

Better comparison would be the Wednesday close numbers then.

 

I2: 129193

Toys 4: 77032

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo]

24 minutes ago, Menor said:

I2 was more than 50% ahead of TS4 on Pulse like @The Fast and the Furiosa said. The two were not even close. To beat it by Thursday morning is quite impressive especially since we know it's way way behind for previews.

Yep, the only caveat being how much is going to next week. Still a good number is incoming regardless

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo]

10 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Hmm, might have gotten that one mixed up. Still I2 is like 17 months ago and selling much less for days 4-9, so was likewise expecting to beat its PS without trouble. If I2 was a lot ahead of TS4 then doing it with this timing is a bit more impressive.

Luckily this was the last weekend of the Akvalley data. I2 had 183850 fandango transactions at the close of Thursday. Toy story 4 had 114041

[Frozen II Box Office Contest | Winners Receive Month of Gold Status | And Now We Wait Six Months...]

Three day domestic opening weekend: 144,000,000

Domestic Total: 525,000,000

OS-Total: 900,000,000

Worldwide total: 1,425,000,000

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

I will try to get numbers beyond OW this weekend. But Menor may not be that far off.

FvF sales looking okay? Hoping for 33+

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo]

Yeah, Halloween will save it from a likely 11-12x but it’s certainly not shooting all the way up to something like a 17x either

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo]

Any tracking for this odd IMAX Kanye film?

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo]

The weird thing about atom is didn’t they lose Regal in between Endgame and now? I know they added some as well but that was a big loss