The Fast and the Furiosa
-
Posts
543 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by The Fast and the Furiosa
-
-
17 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:
For me, the issue over TLK's IM comes down to its preview size. If it really does hit 20M+, that is a large amount of demand already taken care of. Sure, it won't play out like a Marvel, SW, or HP joint, but it's still a lot of money being made and a large chunk of its target audience satisfied. Especially since we're in the peak summer season, there's going to be more kids flocking to see it on Thursday, and while there will still be a big chunk of kids during the weekend, it's not going to be as large as, say, Beauty and the Beast which opened in the spring.
And yeah, Incredibles 2 managed to do 9.875x off its preview in the middle of summer with an 18.5M preview haul, but that also had Father's Day to inflate its IM, which Lion King won't have.
I dunno, I think 8-10x is the range we're going for, with the lower and higher end all dependent on early audience reception.
But as we already saw, a large film can have a great sunday without fathers day (looking at you TS4). I think the sweet spot is 9-9.5x in the end
-
July 4th is tricky. Let’s split into tiers:
Monday-Thur: having the 4th will boost over a typical July weekday
Friday-Sunday: weaker than a normal July FSS day, but the difference gets made up in the weekdays surrounding (with the exception of Saturday, that’s a heartbreaker on those weekends as Friday benefits only slightly)
-
Let’s say this. It’s unprecedented for a movie to open midweek on July 2nd. During this week in the calendar, the choice has always been July 3rd for opening day.
-
3
-
-
This is so exhausting. Yes ER’s are worse now than 10 years ago. Yes the market has expanded quite a bit since then. Yes, more and more studios put more effort into promoting their films internationally (which is one of the largest differences when comparing top 10 now and previous decades). Let’s move on
-
2
-
1
-
-
50 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:
Perhaps there are industry rules about opening previews before midnight unless OD is a Friday? I don't really know, otherwise.
The thanksgiving releases do Tuesday previews, but because this is Monday it’s a bit weird
-
1
-
-
16 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
Among others
CP : 4.25 (5.9 inc Previews)
Aladdin: 3.3
MIBi: 3.25
SLoP 2: 3.25
RM: 1.7
A:EG: 0.55
Thanks as always Charlie. Any news on Godzilla and John wick?
-
4
-
-
2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:
Why did Disney decide to have Vanity Fair release all that Star Wars stuff right now? It's taking away buzz from Aladdin.
What buzz? If this thread is any indication, there wasn’t a whole lot of hope for this one
-
1
-
-
I’d just be cautious on the Friday increases in particular. Its already setting non-holiday weekday records. One should not expect much higher than 100% if it even gets there
-
1
-
-
The fact that the 3rd/4th presale day for TFA was Christmas Day the following Friday tells me that money was left on the table for OW. Idk about 300, but definitely higher than 247. Also it’s in way less theaters opening in the winter
-
2
-
-
1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
And you thought Captain will drop today. 😏
What’s the good word on the slate? Marvel +5%?
-
16 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:
I like how basically all the days are the same except Sat, which is + almost 50 vs + almost 0.
One is Easter weekend and one is not
-
1
-
1
-
-
39 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
HB 2.85
PS 2.5
Us 1.7
What about the number everyone here is waiting for (After 😂)
-
1
-
1
-
-
8 minutes ago, Nova said:
@The Fast and the Furiosa provided the numbers and said it was for I2’s first 24 hours though. But maybe they can clarify.
Yeah this is my bad. I was looking at May 11ths data and incorrectly assumed 24 hours of sales. 1967 for that day compared to Pika’s 1300 or so
-
4
-
1
-
-
8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:
Generally curious: Is there an example of a PG-rated film with heavy presales at all? Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory are the only ones to come to my mind when thinking about that and both of them were sequels to beloved first films and both nevertheless - in my memory - didnt lean that much into hefty presales.
Spiderverse is really the only one I can think of that didn’t truly take off like normal PG films
-
1
-
-
Just now, Porthos said:
Would like to point out that I've been taking pains not to hit any sort of panic button. Just saying that it's going to play like a traditional family film.
You do a good job and always love your posts.
Not saying they’re equivalent by any means, but I2 had 1967 for its first 24 hours. Not exactly Earth-shattering
-
2
-
2
-
-
Before anyone hits the panic button, anyone care to guess how many Pulse transactions Incredibles 2 had on its first day? (May 11th, so similar gap to opening day)
-
5
-
-
2 minutes ago, Barnack said:
5,119,495 last Wednesday to 2,330,380 this week Wednesday would be a 54.4% drop, is that a particularly good week 3 type of hold ?
The Nun did -51.4%, the Conjuring 2 -48.8%.
Last week had more college breaks though, a bit harder to tell than a straight comparison
-
2
-
-
6 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:
October 9th
It was one of the two 😓
-
3 minutes ago, pepsa said:
What day was that so I can check how stong the movies where on that day.
Should be October 16th I believe
-
-
1 minute ago, MattW said:
I was kidding about under glass, but 8pm thursday isn't the final total? The weekend has started, if that's not the final then what is?
Final as in after the weekend is complete
-
2
-
-
It doesn’t have to have massive overlap. The effect is already complete by shoving Captain Marvel out of the largest auditoriums
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, EconomySize said:
So, I have the preview numbers and prior sales for Us together, and it looks like I was mostly right. The gap between Halloween and Us last week was mostly related to a catch up in sales, since Us had more pre-sold in the weeks prior. As of the monday before release the cumulative numbers look like:
Us Halloween Ratio OW Proj OW Total Tickets 25386 27307 0.929652 76.221 70.85899
The Thursday Preview numbers now look like this
Us Halloween Ratio Previews Proj Prev. Thursday Previews 8964 8927 1.004145 7.7 7.731914 These are both plus projections on the numbers coming out last week, and give some backing to Us lining up for a probable 60+ opening, which is outstanding - and way above the initial tracking numbers.
If you look at the ratio of tickets sold in presale between Us and Halloween it looks like Us has sold 92% of the tickets Halloween did up to the same point. However, Us has actually outsold Halloween in Thursday previews. To measure front-loadedness (if that's a word), we can figure out what the Thursday preview sales would have been if it had only sold as many tickets as Us by applying the presales ratio to the thursday preview tickets (.929 * 8927 = 8299). Once that is calculated, you can look at the ratio between Us's actual Thursday preview tickets, and the Halloween's expected Thursday previews, and we find that 8964/8299 = 1.08. So from this estimation Us looks like it may be 8% more frontloaded than Halloween.
I have not done this analysis for a large enough set of movies, but the numbers make sense to me, and provide a data driven forecast for the relative OW/PG ratio of Us.
So the tricky thing here is, yes Us has a slightly higher Thursday % than Halloween. Halloween’s Friday tickets are higher than Us, but Us also leads Sat/Sun advanced sales. Difficult to project frontloadedness imo
-
1
-
1
-
-
29 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:
Btw I'm sure this will be panned out in @CoolEric258 #s, but it appears Us beat Halloween's comparable Fandango sales yesterday.
The fact that it was even close is pretty telling imo
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by The Fast and the Furiosa
The good news is while kids tickets will be a plenty, theres a sizable audience here that:
A. Wont have kids, at least in comparison to TS4
B. Are willing to pay for PLF
Two advantages i can possibly see compared to the more family films