Barnack

I think you make it even more complicated then that. No sequel almost ever got in in the history of the award. Top 20 in the USA is filled with them. Top 20 in the USA is filled with title everyone could have predicted they would be in the top 20 a year before they even started to shoot, them being in top 20 has for the most part nothing to do with the quality, for many it could have been a black screen for 90 minutes and they would have made the list with the pre-sales. The more you disconnect the TOP 20 from the movie quality, most of them being there from the OW-franchise connection, more likely that you would not have a strong correlation between them an awards. Look at all non-sequel/franchise movie reaching the top 5 domestic, how many are excluded from the best picture, even when they are giant CGI/fantasy affair a la Avatar, Martian, Inception, etc.... ? How many missed the BP nomination ?

No but King Speech (414m), Life of Pi (609m), Gravity (723m), Revenant (532m), La la land (446m), Shape of Water (195m) were all very popular movies. Birdman doing only 103m and The Artist (133m) being the least popular best director winner of the 2010s, neither being obscure title either.

My guess committee without any clear line and that would be giving a priority to the movies that have an hard time award wise because they are sequels/movie universe type. A lot into how many movies get made and distributed and how little % of movies are studio made has a lot to do with it. When studio were making a lot of movies and independant did little of them and had an hard time to show them to voters a studio movie had more chance ending up at the year end top. Now that you have 100 little movie for any big one, chance of a big one being the best is getting thinner and thinner. Now consider how logically it is harder for a sequel to succeed in award voting and how much popular they are. Has for popularity it is hard to tell because of how little box office is in term of actual movies popularity, specially for the Oscar movies type, but if you look at say 1978-1981 popularity at the box office of the best picture movies), 1$ in 1978 is 3.87$ now, 2.77$ for 1981 (wow the inflation) 1978: Heaven Can Wait (1978) Paramount $81,640,278 The Deer Hunter Universal $48,979,328 Midnight Express Columbia $35,000,000 Coming Home United Artists $32,653,905 An Unmarried Woman Fox n/a 1979 Kramer Vs. Kramer Columbia $106,260,000 Apocalypse Now MGM $78,784,010 All That Jazz Fox $37,823,676 Norma Rae Fox $22,228,000 Breaking Away Fox $16,424,918 1980 Coal Miner's Daughter Universal $67,182,787 Ordinary People Paramount $54,766,923 The Elephant Man Paramount $26,010,864 Raging Bull MGM $23,334,953 Tess Columbia $20,093,330 1981 Raiders of the Lost Ark Paramount $212,222,025 On Golden Pond Universal $119,285,432 Chariots of Fire Columbia $58,972,904 Reds Paramount $40,382,659 Atlantic City Paramount $12,729,675 ------------------- Under 100m adjusted at the box office Oscar movies were not uncommon back in the days, you had the Rain man, Kramer Vs Kramer box office giant, but many of them were not more popular than your today Dunkirk, La la land, Hidden Figures, Martian, Revenant, The Post, etc... type.

No it always be eligible for BP, like you can still get a BP nomination when you are an animated, foreign language or a documentary movie. They will never block feature film of a certain length that played in theater. Popular will not be linked only or mostly to a box office threshold I imagine, because of Netflix/Amazon that could have a very popular movie that got only a 100 theater mini release for eligibility and because movie box office run will not be over by the time the list is made. That the kind of movie that require to have seen so much stuff before that could still very well miss it.

I think the footage at the end made the heavy winking in the dialogue ok, at least it was fully assumed. Less comedic that I thought it would from the few moments of trailer I saw, it had really high moment but was not Do the right think perfect script level with some moments a bit forced (like when they send him as a personal security of Duke escort risking everything)

I doubt we have a good sample size of 9 figures budget giant production shark movies with 3D release, that got made with no name actor in the last 10-15 year's. We have a RelishMix report that indicate that Statham was a factor, at the minimum for the previews crowd: RelishMix reports that the word-of-mouth on social media shows that audiences “are having a very seasonal, popcorn/air-conditioned feeling of fun. Fans of ‘Shark Week,’ the original Jaws, horror films, thrillers, Jason Statham action pics, all things Ruby Rose – they’re all showing up for The Meg.

He has an home video following too, that can have decided to go to the theater because of the giant spectacle/budget versus is small action movie they rent. It is also the message it send to audience has a casting choice of what the movie tone will be about. You know it will be fun violence with a close to superhero protagonist, cheesy pun humors/one liner, it send a strong don't worry about anything serious ever going on here signal to the target audience. The shark and the brilliant marketing sold most of the movie no doubt, but how would it have opened with Clive Owen in the lead for example or even Butler ?

Yeah it was a very hipster stuff, I had friend that made a MadMen themed party around that era. You cannot have if something is bad it is all the same level of bad moral code and society law. If you have get cough to have murdered someone 20 year's ago it obviously is not the same than for having made a joke 20 minutes ago. And something cannot just be called wrong, disgust/being offended cannot be use strongly has a moral system either that how we end up with sodomy is illegal laws, one need to explain who and how they were hurt and it need to be reasonable. Otherwise it is moral/taste police type of stuff.

It is a party with the theme of a tv show: the theme of the party was “To Catch a Predator,” which is the title of a popular NBC investigative series that ran from 2004-2008. Using hidden cameras, the show would catch alleged sexual predators who had arranged to have sex with children as young as 12. Yes stuff, something that is way different than jokes no one were reading and made no victims.

Saying pedophilia stuff online is way too broad of a term to say that it is bad to do. Same for racial stuff. It need to actually be bad with arguments. A racial joke is not the same as a racist one. A pedophilia joke is not the same as a pro pedophilia comments.

Yes an no, those movies have a completely legit shot at Best Picture and are not perceived to need a new category for recognition.

Yeah I do not see how I2 would have any shoot, would be a really strange pick. 8 sequel in 90 year's got nominated: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD (2015) ... TOY STORY 3 (2010) ... THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING (2003) ... THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS (2002) ... THE SILENCE OF THE LAMBS (1991) ... THE GODFATHER: PART III (1990) ... THE GODFATHER: PART II (1974) ... THE BELLS OF ST. Would need an exceptionally bad year for something like I2 to join that exceptional group with how the voting work.

It will be taken into account by the committee and no movie with a low gross will make it, but I doubt it will be a top 5 made determined just by something like box office. Not absolutely in no way a movie that played for the requirement amount of time in a paying theater in los angeles and didn't release first on home video will be excluded from BP. Animation/foreign/documentaries/etc... are all valid pick for BP and it was said to be the same for this new one if it happen. There is some change that making BP would disqualify you for best popular too, I could see that happen, so the best popular is not always won by the Gravity / Life of Pi / Martian / La la land / Revenant / Get out / etc... the 2-3 popular movies that always get nominated in BP winning each year.

Many movies run is not done by the time they announce the nominee usually. It will almost certainly be a committee pick process a la best SFX/foreign/etc... with a short list created were a top 5 is picked from by regulars voters.

Penguin, Lex Luthor, Catwoman, Magneto & Loki are probably up there in the conversation below the Joker and above Quinn, well known by the GA is probably purely driven by how many time and for how long you have been in giant movies.

With how well that movie opened, the blame can fully go into a lack of quality versus the previews 2 I would imagine.

Both could have made half without creating much of a surprise.

Following the very beloved Spider Man 2 in a growing industry with exchange rates getting better ? One Euro at the box office was making 0.95 USD in 2002, 1.24 in USD in 2004 and 1.37 in 2007, using box office to access popularity is a bit of a dangerous metric for many factor. First spider man made 821.7m in 2002 and was the most popular movie of the bunch, it did $947,04 in 2007 dollars that significantly more than Spider Man 3 and with a much more difficult exchange rate. Not sure a Spider Man movie will ever re-reach the popularity of that 2002 one, it was something else.

Agree with Talisman, Bad Oscar decisions talk is almost a constant after The Departed/No country pretty much all winners had that in some ways (with Crash being an extreme case just before).

Except maybe for Office Christmas Party of those I saw (I do not remember much), I think the issue is that she felt in her own different movie on the side in many of those, Rough Night being an extreme version of that. She has yet to have a director use that right (and I imagine her achieving to reach a middle ground with the actual movie) or try to make the movie about it and make the rest of it play in that energy instead of being side-sided/looking like improve.

Not sure why you think I thought it was defamatory, but who does it, who saw the top sheet and calling ? Insurer company people ? I am not sure how a source be great and not be exactly right, the claim is that it is from peoples that have actually seen the movie top sheet, so it is either completely right or someone lying, no ? what could be in between ? The why stay a valid question. Has for deadline not planting hit pieces they have a really fishy past about it.

IF someone have any idea about a movie budget it would always be quite the precise number too no ? Round number are way too suspicious, too the dollar before all the tax credit are processed/sold also, but to the million estimate sound about right. Who could possibly have a clue about a budget but not know precisely about it, that could pretty much only be competition that bidded on it and just knew the planned budget ?

Yeah looking at the list there is only 11 real 2018 release, still quite more than Fox 6 (half of those being small budget affair).

Or the amount of release, by studio: Rank Distributor Market Share Total Gross* Movies Tracked 2018 Movies** 1 Disney 34.8% $2,631.6 10 7 2 NBC/Universal 15.1% $1,144.0 20 15 3 News Corporation (Fox) 11.2% $849.3 14 7 4 Time Warner (WB/New Line) 10.2% $768.0 25 14 or I imagine the ranking was about by looking only at the specialty division of the studios to WB at third (removing from Fox their Shape of Water / 3 billboard success that were mostly in 2018 and isle of dogs): Rank Distributor Market Share Total Gross* Movies Tracked 2018 Movies** 1 Buena Vista 34.8% $2,631.6 10 7 2 Universal 13.8% $1,046.5 12 10 3 Warner Bros. 10.2% $768.0 25 14 4 20th Century Fox 9.8% $738.7 11 6 5 Sony / Columbia 9.2% $692.2 15 10 Tiny bit above Fox but with 14 more movies counted and almost 250% the amount of new release.

Did it change from deadline, they seem to be saying: Finance sources tell me that the production budget split between U.S. and China on a pic like this is really 49% studio to 51% Chinese partners. The upside here? Warner Bros. gets access to 43% of the China box office and also a percent of the pic’s Middle Kingdom ancillary revenues as the title falls outside the regular mandated China quote of Hollywood pics. CMC also covers The Meg‘s P&A in the PRC. Typically, a studio only receives 25%-27% from a pic’s China B.O. I’m hearing if The Meg gets to around $400M worldwide it could potentially breakeven, I guess that : Di Bonaventura Pictures Flagship Entertainment Group Gravity Pictures And others are also co-financier that 50% studio share of the cost too.