Barnack

That a roller coster, we went to 150m to 130m to Deadline phone ringing saying 178m. Who are the people calling deadline and why they do it.... we will maybe never know.

Maybe if I would have seen Spider Man 3 I would know him I guess, but with that movie reception it became a more fans type that seen it. He is popular among the comic-book crowd I do not doubt that, that crowd became big enough to boost online metric very high also, I do not doubt that. For a certain type of movies achieving to get theater is more than half the battle and having a draw or not has the lead will be a great determinant in how many theater they get. That why it is really hard to access star powers, movie not having a star in them never get the treatment movie with known face get, outside genre/franchise/crazy great reviews and those can be sold with unknown. 45m+ OW for non franchise movie ? I mean even Denzel never did 45m OW in is life, that something almost only Smith did on a regular basis. the only time DiCaprio did it outside the adaptation of one of the most popular book ever was with Nolan, etc... Sure Smith cannot pull that off now, no one can. Has for the comparable, yes is movies does not get pick by studio very often but I am not sure I would call Warrior an arthouse movie and it started wide, Legend was distributed by an giant MPAA studio Universal, if they dropped it it could be that it had terrible tracking type metrics and made a terrible PTA on is limited run, why a good reviewed movie supported by a studio didn't work, who knows but maybe if it stared a draw it would have helped it. You could be right about Hardy being bigger now than a 2016 Smith, but it is a very shaky claim, has no Hardy lead movie ever had any commercial success yet, ever (if I am not missing one ?, I could). Some nice success has one of the or the main supporting player like dark knight Rises, This Means War, Fury Road, Inception, etc... But when he is the lead, has yet to happen, Smith was still pulling 160m out of a movie like Focus (not that far from a Skyscraper outside China).

I think it is simply reading comprehension issue here, he clearly did not he explicitly stated that he was not talking about prime Smith.

All of those are still much higher than any Tom Hard lead movie no ? Yes Venom will destroy non superheroes Smith lowest, but does not mean that it will make Smith lowest superheroes performance (that would be Suicide Squad, for the era Hancock was bigger I think)

I do not know him at all, first time I heard of him what on this message board with this thread / movie announcement, maybe it is different in the USA too were people follow those things way more. But you could be overrating average joe SH knowledge and interest here a little bit. Tom Hardy lead movie have an hard time making 10m at the box office, I think none did reach 15m ever, that the movies box office when Hardy is the lead (copy pasting from here: https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/26519-venom-under-100m/?do=findComment&comment=3598671 If I am not missing / had too many in there, those are the sold on Hardy / list of Hardy when he is the clear lead movies (or was Joel the lead in Warrior ? I do not remember that movie much outside that it was quite fun): DBO Rotten tomatoes Legend 1.88 61% Child 44 1.22 26% The Drop 10.70 89% Locke 1.37 91% Warrior 13.65 83% Bronson 0.10 76% Smith is not half of Pursuit of Happiness Smith in term of drawing power, but if you put him in a summer blockbuster with a fun trailer and him saying funny thing, it is still freaking Will Smith that started to the biggest draw of the late 90s/early 2000 level he did not fall to a Kevin Costner level. Hardy has good appeal for that crowd natural audience and a good choice, but no necessarily the type that will help the movie reach outside is natural audience and break out, like a Will Smith can.

“Maybe if they’d had the category before, we’d have won a couple of them,” Mark Wahlberg told Variety on Thursday Here Wahlberg produced movies: Worldwide (Unadjusted) Rank Title (click to view) Studio Worldwide Domestic / % Overseas / % Year 1 The Fighter Par. $129.2 $93.6 72.5% $35.6 27.5% 2010 2 Contraband Uni. $96.3 $66.5 69.1% $29.7 30.9% 2012 3 We Own the Night Sony $54.9 $28.6 52% $26.4 48% 2007 4 Patriots Day LGF $50.5 $31.9 63.1% $18.7 36.9% 2016 5 Entourage WB $49.3 $32.4 65.7% $16.9 34.3% 2015 6 The Gambler Par. $39.3 $33.7 85.7% $5.6 14.3% 2014 7 Broken City Fox $19.7 $19.7 100% n/a 0% 2013 https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000242/?nmdp=1&ref_=nm_flmg_shw_1#producer Missing deepwater horizon/Lone survivor on that list. Not sure what he has in mind that he could have won in that category. If he talking about a movie he acting in, well he won one with the Departed and that would have been is only shot in the popular category. Maybe he is talking about movies he invested in but was not a credited producer.

Looking at all the betting place of the time, that what the odd maker / people betting money on it seem to think, about 4th 2010 Academy Awards – 82nd Oscars Betting Odds - March 7, 2010 Best Picture Avatar -250 The Hurt Locker +120 Up in the Air +800 Inglorious Basterds +1400 The Blind Side +1500 Precious +2500 Up +5000 A Serious Man +5000 An Education +5000 District 9 +6000 Early in the race before the nomination were announced: https://www.betus.com.pa/sports-betting/other/articles/oscar-betting-early-odds-on-the-best-picture/ The Hurt Locker -135 Avatar +300 Up In The Air +300 Precious +700 Invictus +800 Inglorious Basterds +900 Nine +1200 An Education +1200 The Lovely Bones +2500 Up +3000

Sadly the movie take a big stop right the middle and is riddle with issue. Some fight in the editing room way too apparent happen when the shark attack the station and everyone go search for the little girl a lot of the sequence didn't made sense. Lot of the action/scene didn't work, maybe it is the first movie I see after Mission Impossible and it is unfair, but it always seem like an half second was not well done, did it had a R vs PG-13 debate ? The movie almost seem like those movies that change director during the project and was quite different than the marketing, the opening felt strong enough but the movie does not seem to know what to do with most of those characters and plot points, The letter written to is wife for example and Statham ex-wife character in general, just fade away once a different movie start. The movie is trying to be in a fine line between being just a big fun joke like the Jurassic Worlds or being more serious and does not find it, you have the parody and non-sense going on, like people having fun swimming in the sea just after we have just been shown that it is an incredibly sharks infested water like big group just after throwing and still dripping blood in the sea, play all tension moments for laugh, etc... but does not fully go with it. Bing bing seem adorable and lot of charisma when she was doing her gestuel, but the acting in English didn't seem easy there, in general outside the little girl/Statham the cast didn't seem to be able to work here. Quite loved it, until it stop at the middle and just some part of the second half after that.

Suicide Squad is quite the different animal than Venom imo. I doubt the trailer reaction among regular people is close, you have Will Smith, you have classic characther known by the general audience like Batman/Joker, Harley hype, the classic clear assemble of hard to control asset for a mission narrative high concept, a bit of diversity appeal a la Fast and Furious going on and so on. People knew the movie right away with Suicide Squad before needing to watch it, Venom look less obvious. That said, even if I do not buy a Suicide Squad level phenomenon yet, should open over 35m almost certainly.

Why would it not win BP because of the new category ? Has for Disney being afraid that Black Panther would win so they are pushing for a new category , how does it make any sense ? 1) The show popularity, Disney has 1 billion on the line here 2) When powerful people/studios making a lot of money for the industry are unhappy with the Oscar they create category, like Monster Inc / Shrek not getting recognized by the Oscar brought best animated.

BkB warned us ! We didn't listen. If it does a terrible for a 4m preview start 80m dbo and not so good in China 95m that will give it a already a 70m on Geostorm 221m, pushing it nearly at 300m Need 100m more than Geostorm from the rest of the world, I guess very possible if it started well relative to the 426m Rampage, not much competition coming for it also I think in August.

That is almost 100% true, Sony made 57.3m from Skyfall.

From what I understood of that proposition was to make sure of having 3 audience favored movies or more getting int, not letting the 3 highest dbo automatically in. The rough idea, as I understood it, would involve having two ballots with one listing only the “popular” movies. Three top vote getters from that ballot would then be integrated into the other ballot in which all films were eligible

Not sure about that, except of an rule change. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/82nd_Academy_Awards Up won best animated and was nominated in best picture not so long ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/71st_Academy_Awards Life is beautiful nominated in BP and winning best foreign language film at the same time. I think you are mixing up with actor that cannot be nominated for 2 different role in the same category.

No feature film that played in theater will not be allowed to go in regular best picture because of this, like animated movie, foreign language and documentary are not disallowed in best picture. Animation are allowed in BP.

So few sequel ever made it, but yeah maybe Force Awaken would have (Toy Story/Mad Max doing so). Maybe some that missed since the change (like Inside Out) would have got in, but on the 2009-2010 list that made it in, in live action it is hard to imagine one missing in 2017.

First time I hear of that one. Do you remember a source for it, a bit hard to google for me cannot seem to find anything about it. A remember Disney saying to Forbes they were right about the movie going over budget after they saw their UK filled accounting of the movie: https://www.forbes.com/sites/csylt/2015/01/27/disney-reveals-guardians-of-the-galaxy-was-over-budget-at-232-million/ For the codename company mentioned in the article: https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/08176070/filing-history

But most of the hits on that list, the Inception, Black Swan, Blind Side, Avatar, King Speech would still made it nowaday no ? It is not like the equivalent of a giant Nolan/Cameron original movie with great reviews and giant blockbuster numbers starring a DiCaprio missed it since the rules change or a well liked Tarantino/DOR type success story at the box office. What the slate of movie they can vote for also matter quite a bit here (like for the OscarSoWhite and so white anymore stuff that was a lot the product of the slate than the new voters changing something), probably more than the voting system. I think that 10 votes system can be the difference for the Toy story 3/Up going in vs a Inside Out not making it now too, it is sure that movies almost everyone saw get a great boost with the system versus what they use now.

The fix the snobbery will be hard it is almost just math You have what 15,000 movies in a year, 25 of them would not count for a snob pick according to how people talk ? (If putting Dunkirk, La la land, The Martian, Hidden Figures, Get Out, etc.... in does not count has accepting that popular movie can also be great). I doubt that A quiet Place will have is chance hurt because it had been such a popular movie. It is just much much unlikely for one of those to get nominated or win, the fact that they get nominated so much to an ridiculous higher rate have many reason, one being that the voter prefer them to the average small movie because they tend to be much better.

At least this time everyone on this message board do seem to fully agree that they are all art and should all compete in the same category. The Baby Driver, David Lynch stuff and Doctor Strangelove are not artistic creation crowd does not manifest itself too much here.

Have you seen many people agreeing with the idea in this thread ?

Will end up close I imagine, between 296 and 301 is the most likely. But the last Die Hards were big hits in Japan (32m and 21m) so who knows. Non franchise Johnson movie often do not get released at all in Japan and Jumanji was not particularly big there too.

A 10.415m weekend with a 279.64m total. That a under 3 multiplier needed with Japan yet to open, Rampage did 4.5m in Japan if this does 3m it would need 17m after a 10.4 weekend.

People talk about not being relevant, etc.... But the only for an award show to be relevant is for it to create movies (or at least give a different budget, make it easier to see it in more theater) that would not exist otherwise. Being watched by 65m people to promote movies that would have existed and wide released anyway, how would they be relevant under that model ? They are arguably more relevant when an industry exist because of the weeks between nomination and the show.

I also feel it is more ABC than the movie division, contract is until 2028 and a 75m a year one, the show make over 100m a year in revenues, that is big enough by itself to not need any big movie person being piss at the Oscar intervening.