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Everything posted by Barnack
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I think being big participated a lot on how big it ended up to be. We are really sheepish/heard like creature, that opening weekend record probably created a lot of legs, I know I went to see it in theater just by curiosity of what that amount of success could be about... I imagine lot of legs and later market were a bit like that. And this, for the same reason the first one opened big, it is still a giant dinosaur movie, nostalgia or not they can be big but not massive breakout without much other reason or high quality.
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I cannot imagine JW2 doing near 200m OW dbo, but that said was not imagining the first one to do over 140m either. Quite and hard to read franchise for me, it broke the all time opening weekend record 3 time already, so at this point I will try to stop being surprised by it, but I know I won't. I will be again surprised if it does a better drop than Lost World from JP 1 (in today sequel tend to retain better reality adjusted)
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Rash being the best is true, that said everyone was funny and good, that what a good show is (you know this is a bad and made up take, because you cannot have a good comedy show and so much of is consistently unfunny at the same time, unlest it is some form of who had the most unfunny characters some must have type of thing)
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Could it be linked to China blackout period ? in 2017 the blackout started august 1 I think: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/03/hollywood-blackout-china-is-giving-domestically-made-films-a-boost.html This year's annual summer blackout coincided with the commemoration of the founding of the People's Liberation Army on August 1
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Reading the contract with Netflix, they seem to not even use studio box office numbers but third parties one like Rentrak. Probably why they go through all the re-expansion, drive in dual feature and so on trouble, they probably cannot cheat at all or not much, being audited both by the people getting bonus and by the people paying them money according to the performance and both group using third party entity to track sales, not trusting the studio.
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100m and 200m are relevant number movie for some type of TV/stream contract I think, trying to reach those has nothing to do with looking good or not (and obviously nothing stupid about it). For example the leaked deal between Netflix and Sony for the US market for Sony big animated movie: They pay 32.5% of the first $10m made at the DBO 28.0% of the box office between $10m and $15m 23.5% of the box office between $15m and $25m 19.0% of the box office between $25m and $75m 15.0% of the box office between $75m and $100m 10.0% of the box office between $100m and $125m 5.0% of the box office between $125m and $150m Nothing between 150 and 199.9999 1 million bonus if you reach 200m And I would imagine there is many similar contract with bonus at certain round numbers of the DBO, motivating studio to spend 200k making 100k missing to reach them if they need to. And there is often people (producer, actor, writer, director) that do not get points directly linear with the performance, but rather set amount that jump if the movie reach X at the box office, say for example Jennifer Anniston deal on We're the Millers: bo bonuses: $250k @ DBO $70MM or WWBO $140MM $375k @ DBO $80MM or WWBO $160MM $375k @ DBO $90MM or WWBO $180MM $500k @ DBO $100MM or WWBO $200MM $500k @ DBO $110MM or WWBO $220MM $500k @ DBO $120MM or WWBO $240MM $500k @ DBO $130MM or WWBO $260MM That you could piss off if you didn't try to reach them as much as you did on other project.
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I imagine you are just joking but 2 400m+ franchise movies openned during Avatar second weekend with a 200m rom Com. Titanic openned the same weekend than James Bond and a 300m RomCom opened during it's second weekend. But that is just normal for movies opening around Christmas, you will always have competition right away, if you leg it out you can take advantage of a usually dire February.
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China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26
Barnack replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
When people said in some other thread, never seen a record breaker reception being so negative, I thought for a second, wait what record are we talking about, so made up record like best OW for a Hollywood SH movie or something. No we are talking about the biggest openning ever in China and it was true that reading the thread one would have not known that was the case. $200m is a totally made up irrelevant number (specially when you consider that it is volatile to the exchange rate and other factor), biggest openning ever is the big bar. Would not surprise me if the movie fall like a rock after that, having people going right away so much in that market and for that type of movie effect combined, but still..... 196 vs 206 vs 210m OW are like 5% difference. -
It got a B and a B+ from female over 25 Cinemascore. Would take too much effort to know, and with such a small number of user rating it could be easy to be troll manipulated, but even if not, that would be a case that the very small subset of people that have seen the movie and rate movie on RT taste is different than the general audience for that movie.
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That would imply you can predict year's in advance from the script before shoot the quality of something from a first time director to an high %, for project like those... I really doubt that is the case (that is not even often the case for not first time director), the numbers of black list multi million bid script ending in bad movies is really high.
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Cinemascore will not have issue with this, cannot be affected by troll, it is actual movie goers opinion. When you get bigger amount of people that have seen the movie cheaping in, score become more normalized (less affected by fan upvoting before seeing the movie or the first nights and troll downvoting movies)
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China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26
Barnack replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
The recent est got between 47.5% and 51.8% seem to be quite consistent around a 2x multi, I would imagine that around where we can expect this one also ? -
China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26
Barnack replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
Last Marvel OW share of the box office for the big opener, should be close to 2x if it achieve that. Avengers: Age of Ultron: 65% Captain America: Civil War: 51.8% Spider-Man: Homecoming: 59.5% Iron Man 3: 53.2% Thor: Ragnarok: 47.5% Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: 48.2% -
Not necessarily more than elsewhere, but: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/careers/how-an-ethnic-sounding-name-may-affect-the-job-hunt/article555082/ Almost all study show that if you send 2 exactly the same resume in Canada but change the name: The study (titled "Why do some employers prefer to interview Matthew, but not Samir?") found that English-speaking employers in Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver – who should have an awareness of the diversity of talent in the work force, given their city's multicultural populations – are about 40 per cent more likely to choose to interview a job applicant with an English-sounding name than someone with an ethnic name, even if both candidates have identical education, skills and work histories. And that is in the biggest multi ethnic cities. That tend to be like that all around the world too, that just how humans tend to be. A lot of that buy local/support local enterprise mentality is not rooted in saving shipping environmental pollution.
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One of the only trick is to wait for cinemascore and see if there is a major delta... Really hard to have a clue before that, for those less high profile movie it is not necessarily the case. But for the curent breaking in IMDB score for example, you see a 81 one male vote (with an average 4.6/10 score) for just 7 female vote (with a average 7.7/10 score): https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7137846/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt On those platform even with trolling removed, if it is a 100% honest from people that has seen the movie, you still often have a score that is completely unrepresentative of is actual audience (unlike cinemascore): What happen for critics on a website like RT: https://www.salon.com/2016/07/31/the_tomatometer_gender_gap_is_real_we_crunched_numbers_on_reviews_of_100_films_aimed_at_women_and_heres_what_we_found/ Often happen on audience score, those platform being often more populated by the 12-45 men group.
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China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26
Barnack replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
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Is there a big twist with the other man that appear in the show at some point ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Man_on_Earth_(TV_series)#Cast