Barnack

Moral of that story, if you give betting odds to someone, always put a cap.

The mob boss with the flower shop was memorable too imo.

This, it will not hurt a movie of that type, but will not help it either.

There is more then offshore deals (those are pre-sales of distribution market) that make them off the hook. They pre-sold some in France too (it is the norm to preget some of your potential box office, TV), their is a massive tax credit and I would imagine co-investor.

On http://www.theyshootpictures.com/21stcentury_allfilms_table.php It lost more than 100 place last year thought, 556 from 437. While Hot Fuzz and Shaun of the Dead went up (bit time for Shaun to 131) It is a movie that start so good but to a pace that I'm not sure can work for a full feature movie (versus a short) that it lost is energy in the way to me and didn't had much choice to do so.

Really do not know much, but it would still be one of the most asked (one of the rare asked) MCU entry no ?, no one was asking for a Guardian of the Galaxy or Ant-Man movie, I would imagine Black Widow would start with some interest just with the title versus those. (were people asking for a Captain Marvel movie?) One aspect of this, is that they probably want all those movie to match the Disney brand and keep a reputation that it is fully ok to bring kids of all age, from 4-5-6 year's old and up to those movies without having to ask yourself any question as a family/parents, not sure a Black Widow origin story really fit that model. And would it not be a bit politically heavy too ?, she is young her origin story would be pretty much under Putin Russia (he was prime minister 1999, president in 2000), do they need to invent a fantastic Russia like they usually do with fantasy country (like in Ultron, Black panthers, etc...) to make it easier on that side ? It would be a bit strange to do so for something has well known has Russia. Not sure the ship sailed at all, Johansson is so young (we are often mislead to think she is getting older because of how long she was in the industry, but she is just 32), specially if they do not do an origin story but just a Black Widow movie they can still do it in 2023 no problem. Maybe at one point they will probably make a branch studio, a darker one, like they had in the pass for the Punisher/Blade/Daredevil/Ghostryder, for those Netflix character and some other on the movie side they will get back or to tell some Zombie/Horror type of movie using the MCU brand, Black Widow could launch it.

I think I read someone saying one time that some theater inside some outlet mall and other building (say IMAX attached to a city museum) that can only play PG/G movie ?

Extreme audience resistance build up (maybe even more than something like Civil War), the movie need audience to have watched previous entry (and not good one), legs cannot express themselves in those case, in both case low legs are because of a combination of genre/big OW/large resistance. A movie like Wonder Woman is pretty much 100% free of any previous requirement, mouth of word can fully express itself like for an original movie (the not has high as the best original movie is just because of the crazy high opening weekend)

The official devis (production budget) is out: http://www.profession-spectacle.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/La-production-cinématographique-en-2016.pdf That is nice for French movie, pretty much all of them have known budget if they use French state help. 197,47 million Euros or about 221m US in today exchange rate. The document is in french but they mention some of the pre-financing Besson talked about, it is not just intl market, but also in french TV channel pre-paid some of their future buying cost (I would imagine will adjust for the real movie performance in the future) . I imagine that 209m US was maybe an expectation of the net cost after tax credit, seem a bit high to me, when it was planned for a 180m euro movie it could have got as much as 30million euro rebate because of a law change to make the movie eligible for the Animated movie credit (could not get regular credit because it is in English). Real net cost is maybe closer to 185m

Nope thanks, I'm a bit surprised that: While box office manipulation has long been a major issue in China, the vast market has increasingly vowed to crack down on cheats. Now, the MPAA has hired an accounting firm to audit Middle Kingdom ticket sales on a select number of films. This is the first time the Hollywood studios are availing themselves of a clause in the longform agreement with China which gives them the ability to take their own close look at the books. Was not already the case and for all of them since the beginning.

Not saying that the numbers prove under any doubt that they are wrong for every case, but female director get in average worst critics than men directors (from male or female critics, both gender has that same difference). Stats seem to show that clearly it need much more than that.

Not significantly less (if it still get the same release date, theater count, marketing budget, etc...) otherwise well the majority of know lead actor are draw. Replace Gerard Butler or Clive Owen for unknown actor and a vast part of their filmography box office would stay pretty much the same. Using Brad Pitt one of the biggest movie star of all time, that could push a Burn After Reading type of movie over 100 million oversea has not being a draw is pushing it. If you use an other star with perceived box office clout you are not looking if using a star in the movie helped it or not. Maybe I do not understand you correctly, is being a box office draw definition for you is being a bigger one than Brad Pitt, that he would be a good cut-off to use ? Could you give a definition of what you mean by box office draw (I suspected people saying that there is none are not using the word like what I think it mean) ?

Mel Gibson did talk about it a little bit in that long interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HjZVx6xK4k How no studio would get close to it and how a lot of bad talk in the trades about that movie before it's release and then all you could hear was the sound of money being made after it released. There is at least 3 different exceptional aspect to that giant world run 1) death language element 2) non commercial/gruesome element 3) Very limited studios involvement, all the way through distribution in most market totally independent movie.

If the movie deliver once again it is almost certain the studio will give a giant push (4 to 6.5 million phase one), probably start to push for an special achievement award for Serkis. Lobying already started: http://variety.com/2017/film/in-contention/war-for-the-planet-of-the-apes-special-achievement-oscar-1202469625/

Dicaprio filmography and director collaborator are certainly a strong part of the story and it would be hard to dissociated the 2 most of Dicaprio appeal come from the audience being confident the movie will be good, if he did choose it when he got an offer for 14 others he said not to and it will be the best of the best working on it. But both Jack Reacher (one of the biggest book franchise of modern time, over 60 millions sales according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_books, with a big 17 entry so not dan Brown, Girl on a train or Life of Pie but that is still a very solid fanbase) and Edge of tomorrow (Giant action-comedy movie with an commercial high concept + being one of the best blockbuster of the 2010's) had a lot going for them more than the lead actor and were has commercial project can get. The exercise is hard to really do, those Cruise movie were so much Cruise movie that they would have been totally different without him being involved, maybe DiCaprio doing a Cruise movie would not work much better, but I think that yes both those 2 would have opened higher domestic with Dicaprio and that the Revenant would not have made 400m with Cruise.

Often curse stuff are people cherry picking small sample size issue, you could do it for Stallone being the next Brando according to Roger Ebert cursed him ? Shyamalan being the next Spielberg ? Stalone became the biggest movie star in the world for a while and Shyamalan look like will do extremely well for himself. Very few of the over 100k SAG member will become legend, being compared too some on some small Internet movie bubble platform almost no one follow is not necessarily part of the reason it didn't happen.

So I would ask you (to try to define what people mean when they say draw): Do you think that if the movie Tammy: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=tammy.htm Would have got the same marketing budget, trailers, free awareness giving by the media, theater at the same release day with total unknowns actor that it would have reached 100m ? That Identity thief would have been one of the biggest money maker of the year: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=identitythief.htm With a unknown actress ? I mean, how Kevin Hart not a draw, him completely alone on a stage with a mic can open above 10m: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=kevinhart2016.htm

Jurassic World is a good recent example and will be a copied model in the near future.

Write down are big news because they happen before a movie is released, I am not sure what you mean by Hollywood doesn't make movies that don't make money especially at the highest level, outside some safe IP/sequel it is always a big risk and they often make movies that don't make money (GITS, king arthur, long list of them), they share risk so much now knowing very well how often they make movies that don't make money.

200 could be, 170m sound low. It depend also for how much they sold them, for Louisiana the worst case scenario is 85 cents on the dollars for the state tax credits. Estimated Total Budget: $235,329,191 Total Granted Tax Credits: $26,421,007

Like pointed above the last one had a worst case scenario net budget of 212.86 million. I doubt they did cut much budget to the same director on it's sequel, by how successful the previous entry was, I imagine that it will be about the same with a similar 170/180m throw around in the trades.

If I had a Transformer 7 with a 2019 release planned + spin off, that performance would make me loose sleep.

You expect different number at different time. When you greenlight the movie Beginning of the year in your budgeted expected annual result When marketing start and tracking start to get data (at different time before release) When people talk about a movie expectation they often talk at greenlight time, when they decided to say yes to the project.

That was true before 2013, but since he seem to have augmented is base with more diverse mens in it. Is sample size is small and it has been a while since he had a really non special movie, but he seem to have reached is own level, with him alone on it with a clear step above everyone else. Even outside the US: Django: 262m intl Gatsby: 206m intl Wolf: 275m intl Revenant: 349m intl That is really an impressive run, combine that by being clearly a safe 40/50m above Cruise domestic and I think he is clearly over Cruise worldwide now. He can make close to Mummy WW money with a Great Gatsby movie that made only 13.3m in China, and more with Django (and Django made only 2.65m in China).

That what make it hard, you rarely have a good comparable (non IP movie/big commercial big concept without big stars just never get worldwide ultra wide release on good release date, only the very best movie performing really well in limited release grow and grow over time, movie with perceived stars or IP/high concept hook do so) Isolating the star factor is nearly impossible I imagine, specially without access to exit poll and other metrics studio has, but the fact they spend money on them (could just be loving having them has an excuse they can give when a movie do not work to keep their job) seem to indicate there is something really there, and someone like Kevin Hart or Denzel track record, seem way too lucky at this point for them to be non factor, Denzel opened 16 of is 17 last wide release movie, that is just too good and they were not that better than is competition.