Barnack

If the 217 million net budget rumors is true and do not include rebate from distribution market pre-sales, maybe you are right (specially how fishy it can get once you consider toy sales for a movie like that). But if it does it's 700m with a 140m dbo, 280m china, 380m intl and get 54% of it's revenue from theatrical, it will do around 550m in total revenue. Amazing spider man 2 would have lost money with revenues like that, a Transformer 5 with Walbergh, Bonaventura, Spielberg getting points, , Bay getting lot of points, they could be giving as much as 20% of the gross, could loose money. Depend a lot on how the release end up costing with all those aggressive product placement.

We will need to adjust, before mid 2016 I pretty much always expected a grow from every new entry popular franchise in China, we need to expect them to sometime drop hard or just stay flat. Those franchise getting huge jump between a 2011 or before release to 2013 and after release because of some market explosion (and in some Case 3D) kind of blurred or expectation, usually franchise movie goes down not up, that was maybe just an unique phase.

Well sure, but a draw is simply someone that the same movie, with the same reception would have made significantly less at the Box office if it would have been an unknown at is place, or maybe I'm not using the right definition. Not someone that always make what a studio hoped for (specially when those expectation are influenced by is presence in the movie in the first place)

Do you think that if the movie Tammy: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=tammy.htm Would have got the same marketing budget, trailers, free awareness giving by the media, theater at the same release day with total unknowns actor that it would have reached 100m ? That Identity thief would have been one of the biggest money maker of the year: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=identitythief.htm With a unknown actress ? It is hard to know (maybe impossible) because usually those movie do not exist and if they do, do not get the theaters/same amount of free awareness from the press, without actor perceived as draw, and probably that most of their power is into getting theaters and good release date, it will be hard to distinguish those 2 elements from their actual drawing powers, the comparable with unknown will very often just not exist. But I doubt it is the case.

I don't know, a bit like using a rotten drama called the Judge that still did more than the average wide release argument for RDJ not being a draw, I'm not sure Baywatch say that about Johnson, that movie will still reach an impressive 140m with a 19% RT score. Depending on how strong that IP still was outside some market were it really was like Germany, it could be showing on much of a draw Johnson is. Fist Fight got a really big marketing campaing and made 40m ww, 32 dom. Neighbors 2 made 108m WW, 55 dbo

I would need to ask you to define draw (if Dicaprio is barely one oversea) to answer that. Hard to imagine how Kevin Hart, Melissa Mccarthy, Denzel Washington and a long list are not fully proven draw (to me it is someone that is very presence change in a significant way the box office of a movie, specially the opening). The average studio ultra wide release do around 14m first weekend, if an actor often do usually more than that you need to start to look for a reason (could be the projects, etc... but it could be being a draw). Maybe, but why Passenger did 3 time has much as Life or almost twice as much as GITS or that her last 2 Christmas movies opened so much higher than Will Smith one. 78% of the people there at first weekend of Passenger said it was because of the actors in the movies according to the cinemascore exit poll, that is a lot for a movie nowadays (if is often in the 20-30% range), maybe she is not a draw (would need you to define that term) but with Pratt she certainly was. I think one issue is people loosing track on what live action non sequel/strong IPs tend to do at the box office, the last 2 year's it was around 37 million domestic/79 million Worldwide in average for big release, if your movie at a frequent enough rate does more than that, your are possibly a draw (or you are getting the better project commercially for an other reason, could be luck).

One possible explanation is the level of effort T4 made for that market, setting a massive part of the story there, multiple products from China involved, casting what I think was a big star at the time in Bingbing Li. I have not seen T5 but it does not seem to have push for the China market as much. Combining that with terrible reviews and a market that surprisingly (to many) stagnated since 2015, we should have expected the possibility of a significant drop even before the ticket pre-sales indicated that it would be the case.

I don't know how similar those 2 case are but they could be (deadline seem to be using the same kind of deal Sony have with Marvel for merchandising than Paramount with Hasbro, a bonus that cap at 30m depending on the BO to have made a movie), not too dissimilar domestic/ww ratio either. Amazing Spider man is a good example that show how the margin got smaller for Hollywood since before 2012. Per sony estimate: Amazing Spider-Man At break even point Net direct Production cost: 261.712 million Releasing costs: 269.59 million Participation bonus: 34.25 million Overhead: 26.17 million Estimated break even point: 170dbo/390intl = 560 million WW for total revenues of 613.7 million 15% ROI (108 million in profit) should hit at 740m WW. At that time a movie with a production + bonus cost around 300 million and a over 200 million world release P&A needed around 560 millionWW to break even, they expected to get 59% of the domestic box office and to make 45% of the revenue from theatrical. Market changed quite a bit, for Amazing Spider Man 2: At break even point Net direct Production cost: 260.95 million Releasing costs: 242.58 million Participation bonus: 39.5 million Overhead: 31.21 million A bit cheaper, but much higher estimated needed break even point: 216.7dbo/400intl = 616.7 million for total revenues of 578.38 million And the co-financier are still loosing around 10 million at that point. I imagine transformer also went from a Dvd best sellers to a much lower after market business and that 600m would have been really great for a movie like that in 2006 or even 2010, not so much now specially by being so much China heavy, it could be a money looser if you adds the performance of everyone involved together at a 600m WW box office.

I doubt Disney pre-sales much for a movie like Force Awakens, they distribute themselves in most market and do not sales their movie revenues that much, they don't need it specially not on a safe shot like a Star Wars. Not sure I fully get the distinction between the 2, pre sales is I think the short way to say pre-sales of distribution rights, they are synonym.

I think everyone know this, even Sony when greenligthing it did it mostly to get loyalty from Edgar Wright and Joe Cornish, to have them develop and work on more commercial projects, being happy if end up only loosing a little.

Well German, Irish and English descent, it could be just from joke from some comedy but I thought Hasselhoff was a really big deal in Germany. From wiki German/Austrian popularity[edit] While his star status waxed and waned in the USA, his popularity endured longer in Germany to the end of the 1980s. In 1989, David trained with Patsy Swayze at Debbie Reynolds' Studio in North Hollywood for the Austrian segment of his Knight Rider tour. His music career took off in the late 1980s and achieved success at the tops of the charts, with his album "Looking for Freedom" which went triple platinum in Europe. He had one #1 hit in the German pop charts in 1989 ("Looking for Freedom").[58] He was noted for his performance of the single at the Berlin Wall on New Year's Eve 1989, days after the collapse of the wall. Wearing a piano-keyboard tie and a leather jacket covered in motion lights, Hasselhoff stood in a bucket crane and performed the song along with the crowd. The performance has had a lasting impact on German pop-culture with Hasselhoff commenting that the song became an "anthem" and "song of hope" for the people of East Germany. In 2004, Hasselhoff lamented the lack of a photo of him in the Checkpoint Charlie Museum in Berlin

I understood that from your message, my point is that for Opening day, audience hating or loving the movie cannot have an effect yet, no ?

Not sure how the opening day can be influenced by what the audience think of the movie, they have not seen it yet. I know it get faster and now audience opinion affect even the first weekend, but opening day ?

And that would be Wright biggest domestic success, this movie high concept make it easier to sell than the previous one, so I also predict it to be is biggest box office ever, 40 to 60m sound the most probable range Adjusted for Ticket Price Inflation Rank Title (click to view) Studio Adjusted Gross Unadjusted Gross Release 1 Scott Pilgrim vs. the World Uni. $35,053,400 $31,524,275 8/13/10 2 Hot Fuzz Rog. $30,371,100 $23,637,265 4/20/07 3 The World's End Focus $29,287,200 $26,004,851 8/23/13 4 Shaun of the Dead Rog. $19,278,400 $13,542,874 9/24/04

Must be because baywatch was a bigger deal there than most market with a German actor being the star of the show.

The 6 studios are almost private entity of public conglomerate and give no break down what so ever of new vs library, but Liongates do (the only public kind of big enough to look like a studio ?) and that can give an idea: https://www.lionsgate.com/uploads/assets/2016 Annual Report.pdf The divided their revenues entry by annual slate and give a list of movie making them, you can see the result for the movie from 2014, 2015, 2016 and a category prior that include the library of older stuff. I think library value are going down quite a bit, at least for Liongates quite a bit and for Sony also (removing the giant goodwill was in part caused by that), I would imagine that it is a bit like that for everyone, at least until they figure out what to do with it in that post tv/dvd world.

Monster Truck yet again not achieving to even be remembered when people mention 2017 list of flop, that is a bit like Mars Needs Moms exceptional level of flopping.

If you are talking about this: http://deadline.com/2010/07/studio-shame-even-harry-potter-pic-loses-money-because-of-warner-bros-phony-baloney-accounting-51886/ That was just click bait and just all around very bad reporting imo. The biggest revenue source for those movie were Dvds and they are not there, Domestic TV had yet to start also (or was not including in the revenue poll giving bonus), for me that paper is what was used to calculate the bonus going on to the talent and producer (if you look at the line negative cost, it is augmenting by 30% of the revenues made) with the studio protecting the real cash cow, the dvds from that giant 30% of the gross revenues after distribution expense bonus. The studio was paying 315 million to Heyman and climbing for the movie and people were trying to pass that has an Hollywood accounting trick to not pay the participation bonus ..... Has if you could play games with a producer like David Heyman or someone has powerful has JK Rowlings (both are still working with WB 10 year's later) David Polland explained in a blog entry how much studio were ready to give and run everything else at a lost to keep people away from DVD money during that time Harry Potter movie was made (2004 to 2008), giving huge gross point on theatrical if needed:

Those were mostly synonym: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_box_office_bombs In the film and media industry, if a film released in theatres fails to break even by a large amount, it is considered a box office bomb or box office flop

I wonder how much we can use physical sales to asses HE now, and it is really not reliable but Emily Blunt said that some movie had really good life for their box office naming Looper and Edge Of Tomorrow in a interview.

Tarzan is so far from a flop that he is in too close to call to even know if the studio didn't made a profit out of it, same for Edge. Flop is loosing a clear and large amount of money, it is Mars need mom, Ben-Hur, Live by Night, King Arthur, Monster Truck, etc... type of performance, that hurt a year slate. Edge of Tomorrow (getting a sequel) is clearly out of that conversation, same for Tarzan.

A bit like Craig returning being the most probable to me, I would say even if Sony has less chance than the rest of complete field, they are probably the number one candidate, the franchise did so incredibly well under them (outside the writers strike one) that they would not change, friction will come from Sony actually wanting to make real money of what become a giant world franchise after Casino Royal success.

That is being really optimistic, we know nothing yet of most of them, no trailer anything. The last Cloverfield had some of the best marketing of the year with arguably the best trailer, JJ Abrams at the peak of is popularity, raving reviews at a 90% RT score and did that 70m, the first one made 80m. The new one would need to deliver if it is the same formula to reach 70m. Just 2 live action without a strong IP did 70m this year at the box office and some strong like Aliens/Mummy barely reached it, a movie like that has no floor. That is even more true for something like mother! that open against a traditional commercial horror movie from Blumhouse with what seem a nice hook or a Clooney movie. The rest of the slate is very responsible filmmaking financially that should do well and not loose much in failure, but outside the safest IP there is certainly no guarantee any of them will work, Daddy home 2 feel the safest but a lot comedy sequel failed recently.

Eon Productions (private family business) will probably continue to do them for a long time, the distribution rights (now a partnership between MGM/Sony and a bit of FOX on home video) are for grabs for the next Bond movie.

That could be true or not, when those franchise started in the early 2000's, I'm not even sure they got China release, it was certain that those movie would get sequels only if they did well domestic. What happen with Warcraft and resident evil could be an indication if Intl only franchise from US studio has some reality on it, or if it is not the time yet (they need to build some China Netflix or other ancillary better base for it to become reality).