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upriser7

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Posts posted by upriser7

    MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, M37 said:

    I’m going to work up a more formal projection tomorrow, but looking at the last couple of years that does seem to be the case (though I’m not sure why?), and that ~$21M number is probably too low, more like $24M as starting point 

    I feel like this is the first time during A2's run - you are more optimistic about A2's next weekend number than general consensus on BOT

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    MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, hw64 said:

     

    29% drop from a non-holiday weekend to a holiday weekend.

     

    25% drop from a holiday weekend to a non-holiday weekend?

    It's not unusual..Drops tend to stabilize more in later weekends of the run...NWH last year had 38.5% drop in its 5th weekend (same MLK weekend) but only 30% drop in its 6th weekend. Considering A2 is a weekend heavy movie, 25% drop is possible. . Also it's not like the holiday boost is huge..if there was no MLK day, then Sunday would have been 9.7 instead of 11.7, overall weekend would have been 30.5 (33% drop)

    MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

    AVATAR: TWOW's overseas weekends

     

    $300.5M / 1st weekend

    $176.6M / 2nd weekend

    $185.5M / 3rd weekend

    $136.7M / 4th weekend

    $088.6M / 5th weekend

    At this point, I would be very surprised if 5th weekend's actuals don't come in higher than Disney's estimate of 88.6M. Looking at their estimates of some of the individual market,s they seem to be lowballing a lot

    UK Box Office Thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Dale Cooper said:

    The estimate for M3GAN seems to be 20% drop based on the information in this thread.

    Thanks. I am just surprised to see why they'd be projecting such a huge drop for A2 when at the same time they are projecting a 20% drop for M3GAN. 

    Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    1 minute ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

    what is nwh do os this weekend? what was its gross at this point in time?

    NWH did $33.4M in it's 5th weekend internationally So Avatar is like 2.75 times higher. Difference I think is NWH had no China but it had Russia and Japan was just in its 2nd weekend as NWH released 3 weeks late in Japan 

     

     

    • Like 1

    MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by upriser7

    56 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

    If the NFL games really do have the effect some poeple say on here, it makes you wonder what kind of weekend numbers A2 would be having if there was no football.

     

    Would the NFL schedule of been the same back in 2009 with the first AVATAR?.

    NFL games will definitely have significant effect because 90% of the top100 most watched events on TV every year in US are NFL games. I would estimate the impact of NFL games on boxoffice to be around 10-15% on an average. You can notice this during the weekends where we have no NFL games...you tend to see lesser drops at boxoffice on these weekends than previous week when NFL games were being played. You will see lesser drop in Feb 3rd-5th weekend for Avatar2 as that'd be the first weekend in a long time without any NFL games.

     

    NFL schedule was also slightly different back in 2009. There were slightly less number of games back then and season would be finished by February Week1 whereas now, season finishes by February Week2 as NFL added an extra week to schedule 2 years ago. Also there were less number of playoff games back then than now...until 3 years ago we typically used to have only 4 playoff games this weekend but due to playoff expansion, we now have 6 playoff games this weekend spread across Saturday - Monday

    MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, chaos said:

    puss holds very well and  .. and A2 will make 35+ mIllion till sunday (7.5/14/14)

    it's extremely unlikely that A2 makes 14 on Sunday...I don't see a reason why it wouldn't decrease. There are more playoff games on Sunday than Saturday, starting from 1PM ET and going on until 11PM ET and also Monday isn't holiday for some people.

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