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upriser7

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Posts posted by upriser7

    Weekdays Thread (23rd to 26th of January 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

    1.3m Thursday would probably mean 14-14.5m weekend for a2

    I'd probably expect a 15M+ weekend with a 1.3M Thursday. Last weekend was 11.5 times Thursday number (if you ignore the impact of Popcorn day). Also there are no NFL playoffs this Saturday..that should result in even bigger Saturday bump this week.

    • Like 3

    Weekdays Thread (23rd to 26th of January 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, DAJK said:

    Not sure how many theatres Pathaan is in today, but the theatres that it IS playing in are selling tickets like crazy. If it's in enough theatres, I could definitely see it taking the top spot when numbers are reported tomorrow. 

    I think it will take the top spot..I am expecting A2 to be around 1.3-1.4M and Pathaan should cross 1.4M.

    Indian Box Office Thread | Jawan overtakes Pathaan, becomes highest grossing Indian movie of 2023

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

    Where Is this person getting hourly grosses from? Shit use it during weekends for the rest of movies 

    I think they have access to Comscore which has hourly updates..This account usually gives North American BO updates 3-4 times a day on weekends and once a day on weekdays for South Indian movies and major Bollywood movies.

    Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, druv10 said:
     

    that's a very strong Tuesday number for OS. OS last Tuesday was 9.9M with China's contribution of 2.9M. OS-China last Tuesday was 7M and it's also roughly 7M this Tuesday too...effectively flat without China. Korea is one major market where it increased this Tuesday (+155%) due to Spring Festival..wonder if there is similar effect in some of these South East Asian markets

    Weekdays Thread (23rd to 26th of January 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    9 hours ago, M37 said:

    December opening films grossing more than 3x their MLK week gross for the rest of their runs, 2009 - 2020:

    • Greatest Showman = 3.54x
    • Avatar = 3.51x

    The next highest in my data set is Jumanji TNL at 2.82x (nearly 25% lower), just to show how much an outlier Showman & Avatar are ... or at least were before last year

    • Sing 2 = 3.45x
    • NWH = 3.38x

    And that's the issue: 2021 holidays into 2022 Jan and Feb were such anomaly, with COVID/Omicron concerns and even closures over the holidays into January delaying demand until later, plus an extremely weak release calendar. Showman and Avatar both dropped just ~15% over the MLK weekend, indicating the were already holding monsters, while Sing 2 and NWH were -31% and -38% respectively, only later playing catch-up and posting a lot of sub-20% starting 2 weeks later. There is absolutely no reason to expect Avatwo to follow that kind of nearly flat line trajectory for no particular reason starting in week 7, and the -38.7% drop this past weekend suggests it may not even get to 2x MLK week, much less 3x

     

    Best to just remove any December 2021 movie from comp lists, because they won't be useful for mapping out future January/February late legs

    Thanks for your perspective..I didn't realize how much of an outlier 2021 was in this aspect. I used NWH as a reference as it's the only major December release in pandemic era.

    • Like 1

    Weekdays Thread (23rd to 26th of January 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by upriser7
    d

    22 minutes ago, Verrows said:

    Remember that NWH got a re release so that skews the numbers a bit.

    this is without the re-release numbers. NWH was at 721M as of 6th Monday and it ended it's initial run at 804M. Re-release added another 9M.

     

    NWH's weekly numbers and drops - 

     

    hS6cHwN.png

     

    Bit surprised that it didn't have a big drop in the week of Batman's release

    • Like 2

    Weekdays Thread (23rd to 26th of January 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

    if the movie always follow this way it will beating TGM,what i worried is that Antman's coming

    But,they both disney's film ,so I think for the yearly champion,disney gonna do something

    If A2 outperforms NWH by 40% for rest of it's run, then it will fall slightly short of TGM by < $5M. I just hope it can touch $700M mark

    Weekdays Thread (23rd to 26th of January 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    A2 vs NWH comparison in post-holiday period so far -

     

    Weekends:

    4th weekend: A2 was 40% higher than NWH

    5th weekend: A2 was 61% higher than NWH

    6th weekend: A2 was 44% higher than NWH

     

    I considered 4-day weekend for 5th weekend (MLK weekend )

     

    Weekdays:

    4th week: A2 was 48% higher than NWH

    5th week: A2 was 53% higher than NWH

    6th week: A2  is  62% higher than NWH (only Monday)

     

    Atleast so far, A2 has been consistently outperforming by atleast 40% in every weekend, weekdays in the post-holidays period. NWH did $80M+ from here on for rest of the run. 

    • Like 5

    Indian Box Office Thread | Jawan overtakes Pathaan, becomes highest grossing Indian movie of 2023

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    Going by BoxOfficeIndia, looks like roughly 50%+ of Avatar2's India gross came from South India. Population wise, South India is only 18% of overall country population but there is a significant difference in movie going culture in South India vs North India.

     

    https://www.boxofficeindia.com/report-details.php?articleid=7492

     

    Quote

     

    Avatar - The Way Of Water has beaten all the big South holiday releases as it finishes with a 189-190 crore nett from the South Indian territories. This is more than the four major South releases over the holiday period where the Telugu film Waltair Veerayya may turn out the biggest with around 160 crore nett but this is well short of the numbers of Avatar - The Way Of Water.

     

     

    Not only has Avatar - The Way Of Water  beaten these Pongal / Sankranthi releases but it is just outside the top ten grossing filmes ever in South India. The only films with bigger numbers are Enthiran, Bahubali - The Beginning, Bahubali - The Conclusion, 2.0, Ala Vaikunthapurramuloo, RRR, KGF2, Vikram, Ponniyan Selvan and Kantara and these form the top ten and are listed in terms of release order. The comparison between Avatar - The Way Of Water and the holiday releases in South India (Nizam / Andhra, Tamil Nadu, Mysore / Karnataka, Kerala)  is as follows.

     

     

    Avatar - The Way Of Water - 190 crore

    Waltair Veerayya - 160 crore

    Varisu - 150 crore

    Thuniva - 105 crore

    Veera Simha Reddy - 90 crore

     

     

    Avatar - The Way Of Water has practically finished its run and collections will be as above while other film still running and could be a littel more or less but still well short of the Avatar - The Way of Water numbers. 

     

     

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