BobDole

Week 10: January 4th Weekend: - Will Eli enter in the top 8? No

Week 9: December 28th Weekend: - Will Mary Poppins Returns increase by more than 45%? No

Oh so now that we've tied (according to my back-of-the envelope math) you drop this double-week monster? This abomination is definitely gonna cause me to lose my lead for good. Part A: 1. Will Aquaman Open to more than $64M? Yes 2. Will Aquaman Open to more than $80M? No 3. Will Aquaman Open to more than $72M? No 4. Will Aquaman's Friday and Saturday be higher than Mary Poppins' 5 day? Yes 5. Will Aquaman increase on Saturday from its Friday gross without previews? Yes 6. Will Bumblebee open to more than $19M? Yes 7. Will Bumblebee open to more than $24M? No 8. Will Will Second Act have a higher PTA than Welcome to Marwan? Yes 9. Will The Favourite make more than Mary Queen of Scots? Yes 10. Will Mortal Instruments stay above Creed? Yes 11. Will The Mule have a smaller percentage drop than Ralph? Yes 12. Will Robin hood have a bigger decrease than Hannah Grace? Yes 13. Will Bohemian Rhapsody have a PTA above $1500 Yes 14. Will the top 4 combine to more than $150M? No? 15. Will Bumblebee drink a refreshingly cool Bud Light? Yes THIS SECTION IS ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY OF CLOSE TO IT 16. Will Aquaman increase more than 110% on Christmas Day? No 17. Will Mary Poppins increase more than 160% on Christmas Day? No 18. Will Bumblebee increase more than 125% on Christmas Day? No 19. Will at least two films in the top 10 have a bigger Christmas Day gross than every day from the 21st-24th? Yes 20. Will Holmes and Watson Decrease more than 32.5% on Boxing Day? No THIS SECTION IS ABOUT THE WEEKEND STARTING DECEMBER 28th 21. Will Aquaman drop more than 20%? Yes 22. Will Mary Poppins increase more than 40%? No 23. Will Mary Poppins win the weekend? No? 24. Will Bumblebee increase? Yes? 25. Will The Grinch increase? Yes 26. Will Holmes and Watson enter in the top 5? Yes 27. Will Green Book increase more than 55%? No 28. Will Ralph finish above the Grinch? No 29. Will Second Act have one of the two worst percentage changes in the top 12? No 30. Will this be the moment that Mortal Engines kicks into gear and saves my preseasons with a monster $20M weekend out of nowhere? No Bonus: 18/30 3000 19/30 5000 20/30 7000 21/30 9000 22/30 12000 23/30 15000 24/30 18000 25/30 21000 26/30 25000 27/30 30000 28/30 36000 29/30 42000 30/30 50000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Aquaman make for its 3 day? $68.9 2. What will Spiderman's Percentage drop be? -44% 3. What will Mary Queen of Scots percentage increase be? 220% (or whatever the % increase is for $2,2350,000) 4. What will Mary Poppins make on Christmas Day? Plum tarts, probably (worth $9.56M) 5. What will Bumblebee's percentage change be on Christmas Day? +85% 6. What will Holmes and Watson's Domestic total be by the end of its opening weekend? $34.9M 7. What will be the difference between Grinch and Ralph's Weekend grosses on the 28th weekend? $2M 8. What will be the difference between The Mule and Instant family's total domestic gross by the end of the weekend of the 28th? $9M Part C There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 21st weekend 2. Mary Poppins Returns 4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 7. Second Act?????????? 9. Welcome to Marwen Christmas Day 1. Aquaman 3. Bumblebee 6. The Grinch 8. Ralph Breaks the Internet 28th weekend 1. Aquaman 4. Holmes & Watson 7. Ralph Breaks the Internet 11. Bohemian Rhapsody 1/12 1,000 2/12 3,000 3/12 7,000 4/12 12,000 5/12 18,000 6/12 25,000 7/12 32,000 8/12 40,000 9/12 50,000 10/12 62,000 11/12 75,000 12/12 90,000

Week 8: December 21st Weekend: - Will Aquaman and Bumblebee's end the weekend within $12M of each other? No

After 7PM Thurs but I'll take bets through the weekend if allowed I bet 50 points to 3 people If Beale Street Could Talk will have $50k+ PTA this weekend

Part A: 1. Will Spiderverse Open to more than $25M? Yes 2. Will Spiderverse Open to more than $35M? Yes 3. Will Spiderverse Open to more than $30M? Yes 3b. Will Spiderverse Open to more than $50M? Yes (worth 50,000 points for gumption) 4. Will Mortal Engines open to more than $12M? No 5. Will Mortal Engines open to more than $16M? No 6. Will The Mule more than $13M? Yes 7. Will The Mule more than $18M? Yes 8. Will SPiderverse make more than the two best new entries combined? Yes 9. Will Deadpool make more for its 3 day than the Favorite? Yes? 10. Will Vox Lux enter the top 10? (that's a No) 11. Will the top three films all be new entries? No 12. Will Fantastic Beasts stay above Bohemian Rhapsody? No? 13. Will Creed have a PTA above $2000 No 14. Will Grinch have a better percentage drop than Green Book? No 15. Will this be the moment Sony finally releases the superspy Aunt May character into their Spiderverse? Yes Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Spiderverse make for its 3 day? $56,000,000 $51,000,000 ahfuckit I'll be bold $55,000,000 Maybe less bold $53,000,000 $50,500,000 2. What will be the difference in gross between Mule and Mortal Engines? $9,000,000 3. What will Deadpool make on Saturday? $1,330,000 Part C There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. The Mule 4. Mortal Engines 6. Creed II 8. Bohemian Rhapsody 10. Green Book 12. The Favourite 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000

Week 7: December 14th Weekend: - Will Spiderverse and Mortal Engines combine to make more than $100M? No

L 12 Days of Deadpool Total box office $80M How to Train Your Dragon's OW doubled. Into the Spiderverse domestic total - H

Part A: 1. Will Schindler's List Open to more than $2M? No 2. Will Schindler's List Open to more than $4M? No 3. Will Schindler's List Open to more than $3M? No 4. Will Ralph make more than $15M? Yes 5. Will Swimming with Men open to more than 225k? No 6. Will Creed 2 make more than $10M? Yes 7. Will any of the top 5 finish in a different position to last weekend? No 8. Will Robin Hood stay above Green Book? No 9. Will any film in the top 10 drop more than 62%? No 10. Will Bohemian Rhapsody stay above $2000 PTA? Yes 11. Will Bohemian Rhapsody overtake Crazy Rich Asians' Domestic total? No 12. Will Instant Family increase more than 140% on Friday? Yes 13. Will Hannah Grace increase more than 45% on Saturday? Yes 14. How many films in the top 10 will not drop a place from their position last weekend? 6 won't drop and stay still + 1 will rise = 7 won't drop 15. Will anything ever be released in cinemas ever again? Yes Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Schindler's List make for its 3 day? $1,435,000 2. What will Robin Hood's percentage change be? -43.67% 3. What will Green Book's PTA be for the Weekend? $2563 Part C There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 3. Creed II 5. Bohemian Rhapsody 7. Green Book 9. Robin Hood 11. The Favourite 13. Schindler's List 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000

Week 6: December 7th Weekend: - Will the Grinch have a larger percentage drop than Ralph? No

Another comp: Winchester did $615k/$9.25M OW

Yes. I can keep playing I'll just get lesser points for any questions I get correct right?

@chasmmi Since a movie like How to Train your Dragon is coming at the tail-end of the winter season, I'm assuming its total will include its out-of-season grosses for this SOTM? How many weeks' worth of grosses after the end of the season will count? If only grosses from November-February count: -Full 25k - Mary Poppins Returns -Partial 4k - Into the Spider-Verse -Partial 1k - Escape Room If the entire movie's run's grosses count irrespective of winter season: -Full 8k - How to Train Your Dragon 3 -Full 6k - Into the Spider-Verse -Full 12k - Lego Movie 2 -Full 4k - Mortal Engines Full 4k - Mortal Engines Full 6k - Into the Spider-Verse Full 12k - Lego Movie 2 Full 5k - Holmes & Watson Full 3k - Happy Death Day 2U

Part A: 1. Will Hannah Grace Open to more than $2.5M? Yes 2. Will Hannah Grace Open to more than $5.25M? No 3. Will Hannah Grace Open to more than $3.75M? Yes 4. Will Ralph make more than $30M? No 5. Will Will Hannah Grace make more than 40% of its OW on Friday? No 6. Will Creed 2 make more than $20M? No 7. Will Will Creed and Ralph combine for more than $47.5M? No 8. Will Robin Hood stay above Green Book? Yes 9. Will Fantastic Beasts and Grinch combined make more than Creed? Yes 10. On what day will Instant Family pass Nutcracker's total (Fri, Sat, Sun, or None - If it does it early everyone wins)? None 11. Will Head full of Honey make more than 50k PTA? Hell no 12. Will Robin Hood have a bigger percentage drop than Overlord? No 13. Will A star is born increase more than 200% on Friday? No 14. Will Widows drop more than 37% on Sunday? Yes 15. How about this weekend? Will Robin Hood finally have its moment? Will Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Hannah Grace make for its 3 day? $4.98M 2. What will Grinch's percentage change be? -46.9% 3. What will Head full of Honey's PTA be for the Weekend? $3799 Part C There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Creed II 4. Fantastic Beasts: Crimes of Grindelwald 6. Instant Family 8. Widows 10. Green Book 12. The Favourite 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000

CASH OUT. Week 5: November 30th Weekend: - Will The Possession of Hannah Grace realise that it missed Halloween by a month Will Hood drop more than 53%? No

Part A: (Everything is 3 day) 1. Will Ralph Open to more than $45M? YES 2. Will Ralph Open to more than $55M? YES 3. Will Ralph Open to more than $50M? YES 4. Will Ralph make more than 2.4x its Wednesday and Thursday for its 3 Day weekend? No 5. Will Ralph Increase on Saturday? No 6. Will Creed Open to more than $30M? Yes 7. Will Robin Hood Open to more than $10M? Yes 8. Will Creed open in the top 2? Yes 9. Will Creed and Robin Hoods combined 5 day totals be higher than Ralph's 3 Day total? Yes 10. Will Robin Hood make more on Wednesday or Sunday? Wednesday 11. Will Green Book make more than $5M? Yes 12. Will Dragon Tattoo drop more than 60%? Yes 13. Will Overlord stay in the top 12? Yes 14. Will Instant Family stay above Widows? Yes 15. Will Grinch drop less than 15%? No 16. Will fantastic beasts drop more than 45% on Sunday? Yes 17. Will Nutcracker have a PTA above $1000? Yes 18. Will A Star is Born be closer to Grinch or Venom's domestic total by the end of Sunday? Grinch 19. Will any non new opener or major expander increase on Saturday? Yes 20. Will Robin Hood? Or won't it? Will Bonus: 12/20 3000 13/20 5000 14/20 8000 15/20 12000 16/20 16,000 17/20 20,000 18/20 26,000 19/20 32,000 20/20 40,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Ralph make for its 3 day OW? $59.9M 2. What will Robin Hood's Wed + Thurs be as a percentage of its 3 day? 42% 3. What will Overlord's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? $1200 Part C There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Creed 2 3. The Grinch 5. Bohemian Rhapsody 7. Instant Family 10. A Star is Born 12. Overlord Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000

PART A: Below are 10 films due for release between this weekend and January 11th, along with their predicted total grosses according to https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-dogs-way-home-upside/ 1. Creed 2 - $113M TOO LOW 2. Robin Hood - $28M TOO LOW 3. Possession of Hannah Grace - $5M 4. Mortal Engines - $55M 5. The Mule - $80M 6. Bumblebee - $100M TOO LOW 7. Second Act - $40M 8. Vice - $65M 9. Escape Room - $32M 10. The Upside - $39M All you have to do is predict whether the predictions above are too high, or too low. You can choose to predict for as many or as few films as you wish. If you wish to go further, you could also choose to wager that a film will make less than half or more than double the above predictions. These predictions have bigger risks and bigger rewards. Too High - the prediction is too high Too Low - the prediction is too low Double - The film will make more than double the prediction Half - The film will make less than half the prediction Predictions will be scored as follows: Correct High/Low Prediction - 8000 points Correct Double/Half Prediction - 20000 points Incorrect High/Low Prediction - Minus 6000 points Incorrect Double/Half Prediction - Minus 15000 points PART B: Here are 10 questions: 1. Which film will be the lowest grossing except Hannah Grace? The Upside 2. Which film will be the highest grossing without making more than $100M? Second Act 3. Will exactly four films make the Domestic top 15? Of the above 10 films? No 4. Will any film double its predicted gross? No 5. Will any film fail to reach half of its predicted gross? Yes 6. Will the actual combined total gross for the films be higher or lower than the predicted total gross? Higher 7. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's best prediction? Creed 2 8. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's worst prediction? Possession of Hannah Grace 9. How many of these films will open in the number 1 position? None 10. Will 4 or more of these films open in 5th or lower? Yes

Week 4: November 23rd Weekend: - Will Ralph 2's Domestic Total by Sunday be higher than the combined Totals of the other three wide releases? Yes

If there aren't (or hell, even if there are), let me vouch for Wildlife. Solid domestic drama not too dissimilar from Asghar Farhadi. This film's awards seasons chances have mostly dissipated as it came and went at the box office with its only Oscar hopes being a lot-shot Best Actress for Mulligan and a mid-shot for cinematography (although looking at the latest Feinberg Forecast, maybe not). Gyllenhaal is reliably good (but definitely supporting), I want to see & am interested in whatever Paul Dano directs next, and Ed Oxenbould was quite good to me as the child stuck in the middle of it. A very blank-faced/fairly stoic on-the-surface performance but you can intuit what's going on in his character's mind throughout the movie. Haven't seen much written about him from the movie but hope he gets more work in good movies in the future. Montana (and Oklahoma) are beautiful beautiful beautiful. Not locations you see often in movies but they are majestic af in this movie and, while you'd still get a good sense of it watching on a phone/laptop, seeing the vistas and landscapes on the big screen are worth it if you get a chance. As for the movie itself, it's a pretty straightforward domestic drama that doesn't get too highfalutin or have too much scenery-chewing but that's probably why I'm drawn more too it, a lot more grounded and slice-of-life than typical awards contenders imo. Not to give away too much but there were definitely parts of this movie where I got upset at a character, I'm more of a quietly-taking-in-movie kind of viewer (even comedies) but I remember my face being visibly scrunched in borderline anger. I wish I had seen this with some female friends, it'd be a good discussion as the two sides could see things differently. [Thank God for the editor on this site, I accidentally backspaced/go back a page and thought I just lost all this] If not this weekend then do make a point to check out this movie, it's definitely one that could easily be forgotten as some of the more high-profile remaining awards contenders (Vice; Mary Queen of Scots; Favourite) suck up all the air in the room.

I bet 100 points to seven people The Favourite has a a six-figure per-theater average this weekend

Wow, every player got burnt by Burn fucked over by BtS

Part A 1. Will Fatastic Beasts Open to more than $65M? Yes 2. Will Fantastic Beasts Open to more than $80M? No 3. Will Fantastic Beasts Open to more than $72.5M? No 4. Will Widows Open to more than $14M? Yes 5. Will Widows Open to more than $17.5M? No 6. Will Instant Family open to more than $14.5M? Yes 7. Will Green Book have a PTA above $17,500? Yes 8. Will Bohemian Rhapsody stay in the top 4? Yes 9. Will Grinch make more than half of Fantastic Beasts' weekend total? Yes 10. Will Nutcracker stay above Star is Born? No 11. Will Halloween's PTA stay above $1,500? No 12. Will Overlord have a bigger percentage drop than Spider's Web? No 13. Will A Private War enter the top 10? No 14. Will Smallfoot drop below the top 16? Yes....???????????? 15. Will Johnny Depp transform into somebody more GA friendly by the end of the film? I dunno maybe Mel Gibson? No Part B The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Fantastic Beasts make for its 3 day? $72.4 2. What will Nutcracker's percentage change be? -50.44% 3. What will Venom's PTA be for the Weekend? $1850 Part C There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: potential 0 points incoming... 3. Bohemian Rhapsody 4. Instant Family 6. Overlord 8. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 10. Nobody's Fool 12. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Week 3: November 16th Weekend: - Will Fantastic Beasts + Instant Family's combined OW be higher than Grinch and Spider's Web's Combined OW? Yes