Taruseth

What do you guess is that films production budget?

I agree, 2027, as I already said, would be a good year (50 Years SW etc.)

Probably the problem of simply not connecting with OS-audience and in Uk, Germany, Japan, France and Australia the situation is basically the same as it is in the US.

Right now it is dated to open on the first of November. I disagree, second monday is veterans Day and it has Thanksgiving and November should be less crowded. And I would say that Bond (likely 65-85 Mio Opening Weekend) is weaker competition compared to going up against SW IX and Wicked in it's second Weekend (Despite VIII drop, I think both together will be like 225+Mio big, I want to say 275+Mio, but the performance of VIII has me doubting that) and Frozen 2 basically opens just in it's fourth weekend and I think Frozen 2 might play more Christmas concentrated than their normal Thanksgiving-release. While if Wonder Woman 2 opens on 14th December it would open on the third weekend of Frozen 2. And I think it has a certain advantage being the first big film of a season.

Okay, just hoped this might come true. But let's wait for RTH to give us some numbers (in 12 hours or so) I think it might drop. gave like 10+ pages ago a daily prediction where I have it dropping 5 or 6%. Compact to both TFA and Rogue One it has the disadvantage of not being an off day for most.

Deadlines one article said 0.1m meaning that they underestimated the weekend by a bit. Didn't know that, thought it was similar to Germany, where Cinemas are only opened in the morning of Christmas Eve and fully open again on X-Mas Day. I hope it performs in Germany something like this 2.6 $ (monday, I think they might have underestimated the weekend by a bit too, so monday might be closer to 2.5 Mio$) 3 and 3 Mio (presales for the 27th at the local cinemas I checked are actually ahead of tomorrow). Puuh, doesn't look that promising, to be honest. That DM3 hold is incredible, considering how awful Minions was. That happens when a franchise simply for whatever reason (never watched the OT (and PT) etc.), doesn't connect with most OS-Markets, to be honest it only performs well in Europe, Japan and Australia and New Zealand. That honestly would be awful, dropping 75 to 85 %.

Definitely, everything else would be pretty lame. I doubt anyone ever thought TLJ could be #1/2 of all-time, but most, including me thought it could finish #4/5 ww (around JW). The will make money but i agree with you they might have hoped for more. Is that really an estimate for today and not one of the Christmas eve estimates for X-Mas Day?

I think the problem is that TLJ most likely will fail to get a 3x multiplier while Rogue one got a 3.43x Multiplier! and TFA had a 3.78x that it would drop from TFAs multiplier was clear, but to drop that much from Rogue One's is surprising. But You are right, TFA's Run was amazing. It's second Week (261.1 Mio $) would rank as 5th highest Week ever (only TFA (390.9), TLJ (296.6), JW(296.2), Avengers (270) Opening Weeks are higher). The Next highest second Week Rogue one (153.4) is 107.7 Mio less.

That would mean it grossed just 0.5 Mio in the Uk, 2.6 Mio in Germany, 1.8 in France, 1.1 in Japan and 0.3 in Australia on X-Mas Day, so combined that would be 6.3 Mio so all other markets grossed 8.5 Mio.

I think the December slot non the less is more crowded. In November it plays against James Bond (I think 200 Mio $ at best) and in December it would have IX (500+ Mio $) and a lot of Holiday releases. So It would drop showtimes faster.

That would be a lot, especially considering the fact that JL's one is as most say 100-200 Mio below that. And I doubt TLJ was that much more exspensive, I actually saw more marketing for JL compared to TLJ.

I would say there is more as a chance that it misses that, would need 660 Mio for that and right now it looks like it will fall short of that. I think 600-620 Mio is were this movie is heading. That is a real monopoly.

I think the biggest thread already moved with Wonder Woman 2 moving to November.

I would say that is based on the next 8 days or so. If it increases today and barely drops after that and increases on the second weekend. It could be basically at 200 Mio on New Years Day.

I would say Spiderverse. I think bumblebee will gross below 100 Mio $, Spiderverse looks okay probably something like 150 Mio $, I think Engines at best behaves like Bumblebee and Aquaman and Poppins are the two bigger films, but I think most people expect those two to play well, so unless they really overperform I doubt I can call either a breakout, but I think Poppins will be #1 film in December.

Edit.....spoilers....careful please. THE STAFF The second part has a certain truth in it.

You of course are right, I should have wrote it a bit different, because I meant direct sequels and TFA, JW are basically new starters, I don't really need to know what happened in the other films to understand those, which especially is true for JW. That still would mean that there were movies that increased.

What Do you consider The Hunger Games, because Catching Fire increased from The Hunger Games, actually the only Sequel to increase from a first film that grossed more than 400 Mio $.

Would be cool, but I honestly doubt that. I just tried to give this film okay daily etc. drops and according to that the film would finish with just 605 Mio, which seems awfully low.

It surely does, but that especially show how gigantic both Titanic and Avatar were. This really leaves me wondering how well or not well Solo will perform...

I agree with you on all points. Actually TFA was the first SW film I watched in Cinema.

Only Hobbit 3 increased that much, Hobbit 1 increased just 63% and Hobbit 2 just 77%

I think we all are:))

Those increases would be good to really good, as 125 % would be 40,25 Mio $ on Monday. So I have my doubts about that, but I still hope it pulls that off. I honestly have no Idea to expect from this day, something like +65% (=>29,5 Mio$) or +100% (35,8 Mio $) or totally crazy 125+%.

Jep, for both films, but I am also really interested if the other films managed better drops than the average did in 2006. What I think is really interesting, TLJ had the second highest Opening Weekend and Week, just the 14th second Weekend, but (if Friday and Saturday hold with RTHs Sunday so 71,25 mio Weekend) it would just need 82,2 Mio over the four weekdays to get the second! highest week of all time (right now that is Rogue one with 153,4 Mio and that film made 89.4 Mio during those four weekdays). I think that really shows how crazy the end of December really is.