Taruseth

Those holds are awful, but isn't that typical in germany, holds normally are a lot worse than in the us on Christmas Eve, as far as I know.

That would be incredible (everything above a 100% jump)

At the nearest cinema (Germany) to me that day has larger presales (25% higher) than both today and tomorrow I actually think the same, most would want to see how this trilogy ends, furthermore they brought back JJ Abrams for this. And I think the same about the Calendar. Christmas Eve on Tuesday means the weekends won't be effected and both the 25th and 26th are part of the first week (Wednesday & Thursday), I think that will be a giant first week (I would guess the only week from any releases in the near future that has a chance of grossing something that is less than 50Mio lower (so 340+ Mio $ (Of course I hope it will be the First film with a 400 Mio $ first Week, but for that I think the Opening needs to be really close to TFAs one (like 240+ Mio Close) and it would need great reception)) than TFAs first week (I doubt JW is able to do that, same for Avengers Infinity War, the only one I think might have an outside Chance is The Lion King if Disney does everything right) I think TFA will adjust to something like 275 Mio $. I think even average ticket prices won't take it that far up, because there are just 4 years inbetween. From 2008 to 2012 they increased by roughly 10 percent (would be close to 275 Mio for TFA adjusted in 2019) and by 9% between 2012 and 2016 (=> 270 Mio $) I agree with you, but I still think both might fall short by a bit (like opening to TLJ numbers), but I also think that if Disney does everything right SW IX has a chance (and I have honestly no idea how TLK will perform, I can see everything between 80 and 250 Mio right now, because it is so far out). Episode IX or something like that. So if 18.xx is very close and 16.xx is getting warm... Okay honestly, I am really confused right now, but I am laughing because I have no idea what that means. Also how do you come up with this pictures?? Thank you so much Estimate was 14.6 if the Saturday holds with 29.178 Mio, that would be just a 40% Drop and a weekend of 71,26 (-67,6%), would be good. So for 100 Mio four-day Weekend it would need 28,4 Mio (just a 65.2% increase) should be doable. And Merry Christmas to everyone.

What do you see TLJ finishing with? and I noticed something really interesting at the local cinema: Presales for 25th: 393 26th: 401 27th: 482 (Probably the Carrie Fisher effect) I didn't thought the 27th might be that strong.

So this has me asking myself which movie took No. 1 in Germany this weekend (it was TLJ)

I actually asked myself if that isn't the better calendar configuration. I am at least sure that the 2016 was horrible Christmas Eve and NYE on Saturday isn't that good. I honestly have no Idea how it will perform domestic or in Europe, because Avatar was gigantic, but if someone can pull that off again than James Cameron. But that China run can be anywhere, If it performs like the original in comparison to the market, that would be incredible. I hope it edges past that, but I start to doubt it. Just hoping the week will be a bit nicer. Oh yes, Most blockbuster don't reach a single day above 40Mio$ apart from their opening Day. I don't know if changes anything and I would say it is really hard to say if it does or if it doesn't. But as wee see with Rogue on it had a 'bad' weekend Weekend and really good Weekdays resulting in a good second overall week drop (Actually because of the weaker first set of Weekdays an overall better drop). I just hope the overall drop for the Week for TLJ is similar to TFA (-33.2 %) and Rogue One (-30.9%) would leave TLJ with a second week of 198 up too 205 Mio$ so based it would need to cross something like 130Mio+ on the second set of Weekdays and that seems to much. I think Disney is releasing SW on Memorial Day Weekend because they want to keep some place for Infinity War. Yep, as far as I know about box office (so nothing) it seems like that. Hope that TLJ number holds. So Friday and Saturday combine to roughly 53,5 with a 14 Mil Sunday the weekend would be 67,5. Thanks, that PP3 number looks awful. Wait is has Thursday preview as part of it's opening day, but it still dropped from it's true friday. I really hope that won't happen at least the part with Episode IX, and if Han Solo behaves like Wonder Woman compared to the other movies, it would gross something similar to TFA, that would be crazy. Probably something like (I have no idea about that Fox /Lighstorm film) Aquaman (Opening Weekend) Bumblebee Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Mortal Engines Probably something not yet dated or a hold over, so Wreck-it-Rakph 2 I agree with that. So SW, Avatar, SW, Avatar, SW, Avatar, that would still give them a big film in December. Actually if the sale of FOX goes trough, Disney would be the studio with the main Blockbuster in 2015 SW VII: The Force Awakens (936 Mio$) 2016 Rogue One: A SW Story (532 Mio $) 2017 SW VIII: The Last Jedi (675+ Mio$) (2018 I actually think Mary Poppins (350 Mio$) might be bigger than Aquaman) 2019 SW IX (700 Mio $) 2020 Avatar 2 (It's Cameron, I actually think if he really has a story to tell and the right technical idea, this movie could cross somthing like 900+ Mio$, that Avatar adjusts to 900+ Mio$ might help too) 2021 Avatar 3 (I think this will drop 700 Mio$) 2022 I think they will come with a film for this year 2023 same for this year 2024 Avatar 4 (This will drop 500 Mio $) 2025 Avatar 5 (600 Mio $) I just Guessed some numbers for Avatar2-5.

If those numbers would be just true for the whole market, that would be amazing. You certainly love SW.

I hoped SW8 would increase a bit from the other estimates, but seems like yesterday was not that strong. Based on the first Thursday estimate I thought PP3 would open with at least 230k, but if I remember correctly that day was way overestimated. Are those the estimates from Insidekino? Because they have Ferdinand and Paddington a bit higher. Merry Christmas

Agree on the Saturday jump, but the Sunday drop isn't way too small, it most likely will be to small (drop around 51-53%) and could happen as TFA and RO also hat 'good' Christmas Eve holds.

Those would definitely be better, so lets hope those come true.

Let's see what happens today. Didn't expected Jumanji to be that strong. Didn't Deadline expected Coco at 2.9mi that would be brutal in comparison. With that 25,5 Mio Friday what is the possible range for TLJ for the 3-(&4-)Day Weekend? Something like 25,5+27,5+13= 66 Mio up to 25.5 + 30 + 16.5 = 72 Mio.

I just want to remind you that some people expected crazy numbers this week and while they were good, they weren't over the top crazy good and I think that those negative comments about it might hurt it's gross perspective. And Rogue one jumped just 9% on it's third Friday. I am not telling you the School and Work situation doesn't matter, I just think that it needs to be taken into consideration that the first weekdays have a higher demand than the third set, especially when in-between the second set of weekdays includes the 25th and 26th December. Okay, I admit I thought NYE dropping like Xmas Eve, despite both Rogue One and The Force Awakens suggesting the drop should be less ( ) and NYD increasing less than Xmas Day leading to that big WoW drop for that day and the WOM being not that perfect with people saying how much they hated it will hurt the next Days too. And during TFA second Week everyone was off to, yet it decreased from the first despite having just NYE in it and not Xmas Eve. That was my idea for the next days (With the 50% Drop on New Years Eve and the really low increase the next day): day Daily Cume % Weekend % 8 28.300.000 324.902.356 58,1681821843 9 34.500.000 359.402.356 21,9081272085 10 17.200.000 376.602.356 -50,1449275362 80.000.000 -63,6379476996 11 35.000.000 411.602.356 103,4883720930 115.000.000 12 35.000.000 446.602.356 0,0000000000 150.000.000 13 25.000.000 471.602.356 -28,5714285714 14 20.000.000 491.602.356 -20,0000000000 15 25.000.000 516.602.356 25,0000000000 16 30.000.000 546.602.356 20,0000000000 17 15.000.000 561.602.356 -50,0000000000 70.000.000 -12,5000000000 18 20.000.000 581.602.356 33,3333333333 90.000.000 19 10.000.000 591.602.356 -50,0000000000 20 8.000.000 599.602.356 -20,0000000000 21 7.000.000 606.602.356 -12,5000000000 I used Rouge Ones drops from the 26th to 27th to 28 th (29.8% and 20% drop) But that was just a rough guess.

Thanks, Really looking forward to how the following weeks turn out to be. And I really hope that TLJ will be able to have that high grosses all trough out the holidays.

I honestly really hope you are right. I don't really no if the 3rd sets of Weekdays will be that strong (New Year's Day aside, as I think that Day has a solid chance at 20+Mio$ hopefully a lot more). What do you think might those weekdays roughly look like all above 10Mio$ or Thursdays and Wednesdays below? First Weekend: 220 Mio First Weekdays: 76.6 Mio => 296.6 Mio first week Second Weekend: 80 Mio => 376.6 Mio Second Weekdays: 115 Mio => 491.6 Mio (Something like 35 + 35 + 25 + 20, could be higher, could be lower) Third Weekend: 70 Mio => 561.6 Mio (This is the weekend were I think anything can happen, No new movie releases here, that is an advantage but I don't think that will be enough to compensate for a drop) Third Weekdays: 45 Mio => 606.6 Mio (Something like 20 + 10 + 8 + 7) Would mean it needs to cross 153.4 more after the first three full weeks. Rogue one grossed 77 Mio more (so it would need more than double that) And TFA grossed 166 Mio more but that film came of a higher Weekend (90 Mio $) This are just some ideas, and most likely something totally different will happen. So in other words, let's wait and see Really interested in what you think.

TLJ around 200 sales per minute right now on pulse. (Seems low compared to the previous weekdays count)

I really hope that happens, but 27% increase seem really optimistic. But to be honest I have no! idea what the next days will bring.

Those Estimates seem really good in general. So Deadline thinks TLJ will have a 34.4 Million Monday. And that Friday would mean Saturday and Sunday would need to gross 55.3 combined, that seems to optimistic, but would be really, really good if it happens

According to BOM only: Scream 2 (32.9 / 101.3 Mio$ =>3.08x) The Day the Earth Stood Still (30,5 / 79,4 Mio $ => 2.6x) The Golden Compass (25.8 / 70.1 Mio $ => 2.7x) Exodus: Gods and Kings (24.1 / 65 Mil $ =>2.7x) Star Trek: Insurrection (22.1 / 70.2 Mio $ => 3.18x) Beavis and Butt-Head Do America (Why would anyone name a movie like this ?!?) (20.1 / 63.1 Mio $ => 3.14x) and of course Star Trek: Nemesis (18.5 / 43.3 Mio $ => 2.34x) Krampus (16.3 / 42.7 Mio $ => 2.6x) the others opened below 13 Mio $. and finished below 31 Mio$.

Thank you, of course you are right, so the true list is:

Thanks, so TLJ most likely will just make 20-50k on Christmas Eve. In the local cinema they have the same times of shows on saturday and monday, that is surprising to say the least. So I assume that most of this went on the 25th.

To many new Films and it dropped 57.3% last weekend despite adding 20.2% Theaters.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV 142,889,379 21.12.2015 – 24.12.2015 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV 111,908,355 28.12.2015 – 31.12.2015 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story BV 89,345,263 26.12.2016 – 29.12.2016 The Dark Knight WB 80,203,728 21.07.2008 – 24.07.2008 Finding Dory BV 78,257,629 20.06.2016 – 23.06.2016 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV 76,800,425 18.12.2017 – 21.12.2017 With that Thursday it would be the sixth biggest set of Weekdays (I didn't include headstarts) if I didn't forget any other films with really big first weekdays. That Jumanji number looks good. EDIT: The Date is Day.Month.Year

That definitely looks better. Do any of you know how many admissions Rogue One and The Force Awakens (or any other big Christmas Blockbuster) sold on Christmas eve. The nearest Cinema is open Sunday morning and has sold 156 ads. till now compared to 581 on the 23rd (75% drop) So a weekend (to get to 750K) could look like: 185k + 250k + 260k + 55k ?

That doesn't look that good, would be a increase of just 3.5% Based on presales on pulse I expected 19Mio$+. (If it would have the same ratio as Monday and Wednesday actually even more, but I doubt that.)

Movietickets right know: Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 56.2% Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: 13.3% Pitch Perfect 3: 6.7% The Greatest Showman: 4.9% Ferdinand: 3.2% Pulse: TLJ presales per minute in the evening at 16:40 EST: Monday: ~180 Tuesday: didn't count Wednesday: ~140 Today: ~170