Taruseth

Solo? They basically produced it twice, so it most likely is expensive (if they are unlucky it could cost up to $250M I just hope it doesn't cost even more) and this won't play like Rogue One.

I think low end is $1325+M ($625+M Dom, $50+M China, $650+M) with a small chance at $1400M ($645M, $70M China, $685M). So I think it most likely will end somewhere around $1360M ($630M, $65M, $665M)

Okay I somehow thought the main holiday was in the last week and ends today with NYD and $80+M would be impressive and a drop of less than 20% 1.5M admissions would be bad, considering the fact this past weekend had 835k and TFA having 2.5M admissions after the third weekend. For Germany to drop less than 20% TLJ would need to gross $89.1+M, that seems to be a bit to far away, but if the next sets of weekdays are good and the next weekend is good that should be doable to.

Happy New Year

Frohes Neues

Top 10: 1: Avengers: Infinity War: $202.5M / $496M (WW: $1.4B) 2: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: $180M / $483M (WW: $1.35B) 3: The Incredibles 2: $135M / $428M (WW: 1B) 4: The Grinch: $115M / $403M (WW: 1B) 5: Marry Poppins Returns: $67M / $342M (WW: $700M) 6: Solo: A Star Wars Story: $142M / $325M (WW: $600M) 7: Deadpool 2: $125M / $322M (WW: $700M) 8: Black Panther: $110M / $300M (WW: $600M) 9: Aquaman: $85M / $300M (WW: $700M) 10: Ant-Man and the Wasp: $80M / $225M (WW: $650M)

This December was the highest grossing ever with Based on estimates $1,320.6M (2015: $1,305.0) and the 5th highest month ever, if the actuals go up more than $300K combined than it will be the 4th highest month ever. The total year ($11,064.3M) still is down compared to both 2016 ($11,377.5M => -2.8%) and 2015 ($11,129.4M => -0.6%) And Disney expects a $13.11M Monday (-2.45%) that would be atrocious and mean Avengers might be high end of the possible gross range ($93.1 after Monday to top Avengers). And Sony a $16.43M Monday (+24%) that seems reasonable.

Deadline: "Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi has made the jump across the coveted $1B mark worldwide, grossing $1.04B through Sunday. The Rian Johnson-helmed installment is the 4th movie to pass the milestone in 2017, and the second for Disney after Beauty And The Beast. The international box office cume is now $523.3M after a $68M 3rd weekend in 54 material markets. The Resistance held very well overseas this session, dipping just 12% from last weekend which included Christmas Eve. Several markets saw increases including France (+37%) and Germany (+17%). Overall, the EMEA region was 2% ahead of last weekend. Jedi is the No. 1 movie of the year in Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Norway and Sweden and held the top spot for the 3rd frame in a row in such key markets as France, Germany, Spain and the UK. It also held No. 1 in Japan. The top market remains the UK which is approaching a milestone, coming out of the weekend at $91.5M. It’s followed by Germany ($62M), France ($45.6M), Japan, ($40.4M) and Australia ($35.1M)." What do you think will this movie finish with? Something like $650M (so $126.7M) and $50M from China for $700M international. (Last week means: Monday (25th) through Sunday (31st)) Total: $126.7 Needed for $650M (Last week: $142.1M) Uk: $30M (=> Total: $111.5M) (Last week: $24.1) Germany: $25M (=> Total: $87M) (Last week: $22M) France: $15M (=> Total: $60.6M) (Last week: $16.3M) Japan: $20M (=> Total: $60.4M) (Last Week $11,9M) Australia; $10M (=> Total: $45.1M) (Last Week $8.2M) So the others would need $26.7M that should be doable because for those the last week was $59.6M.

So I am really new here, but I will just try predicting some numbers too:)) Opening Weekend (always the 3-day) / Total January: Febrauary: March: April: May: June: July: August: September: October: November: December:

Good Analysis, but I think the fact that RO had a 3.4 multiplier makes TLJ potential one of 2.9 look a lot worse. Okay one could look at this and say 2.9 (it would need $638M ($627M for 2.85)) it would be the the 6th best (after TFA, RO, TDK, JW, TA and four out of this five were a really big event)). I think it most likely will be a mix, the bad WOM definitely plays a important role in this. I think IX might get a better multiplier than TLJ, especially if JJ Abrams is able to find a way to make a good movie without ignoring TLJ.

I would Say OW amazing, Total a bit dissappointing, especially if it ends close to TA, if it ends over $660.1M the total would be okay, as it would be #3 dom and Legs, well they are bad (especially if it misses the 3x, above 3x would be meh, above 3.2 would be good and 3.4x and above would have been really good).

Yeah definitely. It's James Cameron so we could be looking at something like $150M / $1000M (Inflation will have taken Avatar near $1B and SW VII over $1B in 2020) or if it performs like a normal sequel $150 / $500M. I am really interested for the marketing, because I have no idea what he wants to tell in Avatar 2, 3, 4, 5,... New Technology? Do the same character appear in 2,3,4,5 as they did in Avatar?

Okay. It definitely is.

It's Avatar, honestly those characters weren't memorable.

Those three surprise me. SW is overperforming in Brazil. And Frozen as for Moana etc. Brazil was the 5th biggest market.

Doesn't that mean it is really close to Rogue one? So something similar to Rogue one, maybe 10% higher?

I am a bit confused did you adjust them and kept the order they were unadjusted? Definitely agree with you. Star Trek is far better as a TV show, like right now with Discovery. In 2018 I think Infinity War is the only film, that has a chance if grossing more than TA unadjusted, I would give it less than a 1% chance to gross more than TA adjusted on Opening Weekend. In 2019 I think three other Disney films have a chance Avengers 4, The Lion King (I think this will be their biggest Live Action film, the release Date alone shows that, it's the same as TDK etc.) and SW IX. And after that I have no idea. I doubt that the Avengers Sequels will be able to top the Avengers, so I think SW IX will kick The Avengers out of the unadjusted List. To be honest I think by 31st December 2019 the list unadjusted might look like this: 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens $248.0 (12-18-15) 2. Star Wars: IX $240.0 (12-20-19) 3. The Lion King $225.0 (07-19-19) 4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 220.0 (12-15-17) 5. Jurassic World $208.8 (6-12-15) So Adjusted it might look something like this: 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens $275.0 (12-18-15) 2. The Avengers $247 (5-4-12) 3. Jurassic World $244 (6-12-15) 4. Star Wars: IX $240.0 (12-20-19) 5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $238 (12-15-17) So I think TFA and Avengers will stay in that list for quite some time. Of course TLK, IX could perform stronger and become the first $250+M Opening Weekend(s), but right now I don't really want to make any guesses in that direction. What I think is really interesting though is the fact, that HP1 wasn't really a out of this world opening weekend, while in Germany it is the highest Opening Weekend of all time and the only one to ever top 2.5M Admissions, actually the three highest Opening Weekends are HP1, 2, 4.

I think next weekend Jumanji will overtake TLJ, especially on Saturday and Sunday.

$22.7M means it is down $4M! from Wednesday and that despite staying flat in the UK with $4.9M and increasing by 2% (so basically flat) in Germany to $4.4M. I hope this is a sign for good legs in these two markets. That means the gross for the others dropped from $17.5M (Wed) to $13,4 (-23,5%), that isn't really good to be honest.

Maybe they want to avoid the Opening Weekend of Aquaman and Bumblebee, those two as Superhero/ Transformer spin off are front loaded, so higher Opening Weekend. If all three would open on the 21st, that weekend would be really crowded, three big releases. With first two most likely opening to 75+Mio (if Mary Poppins would open on the 21th and Disney get's the Trailer right) and the other to 30+Mio or something like that. I honestly am looking forward to this.

If that would hold that would be impressive for all films an TLJ third weekend would be above TFAs third weekend and nearly twice Rogue Ones Third Weekend. But Jumanji and DBH with good increases.

I think the increase was mainly due to UK (Tue 3 M up to 4.9 M Wed) Germany (Tue 3 M up to 4.3 M Wed) So they increased 63% and 43% (Those two are amazing) and together they increased by 3.2 Mio that is more than the total increase of 2.56. So taking those two out the other markets dropped a little bit.

Might develop some legs. Can anyone explain me, why The Star! has the biggest auditorium for next weekdays for the morning show. And SW doesn't for the evening the main shows 16:10 and 20:00 got changed from a 582 to a I think 150 auditorium. That auditorium has nothing after 15:00. Probably they change SW back into that.

I totally agree with you on that, I again agree with you, to be honest that trailer really makes me want to just ignore that film. I hope the final trailer is better. We don't know the Thursday number yet if that would drop more than most here expect it would need better increases and they are estimating the 4 day drop and that most likely will be higher, because NYD is weaker than X-Mas Day. So a 20% 4-day weekend Drop might mean something like a 15% 3-Day Weekend drop. Again I totally agree. I love the music.

Okay I thought you meant December Openers in general and the Third Narnia film opened on the 10th;) so that film also didn't opened in the week before Christmas, but even ignoring those, that would be the other December opener (Top 200) to miss 3x: The Golden Compass (25.8 / 70.1 => 2.72 x; opened on the 7th) Exodus: Gods and Kings (24.1 / 65 => 2.7x, opened also on the 12th) Star Trek: Nemesis (18.5 / 43.3 => 2.34x, opened on the 13th) Krampus (16.3 / 42.7 => 2.62x opened on the 4th) Honey ( 12.9 / 30.3 => 2.35x, opened on the 5th) Aeon Flux (12.7 / 25.9 => 2.04x, opened on the 2nd) In the Heart of the Sea (11.1 / 25 => 2.25, opened on the 11th) Analyze That (11 / 32.1 => 2.92x, opened on the 6th) Psycho (10 / 21.5 => 1.15x, opened on the 4th) POINT BREAK (9.8 / 28.8 => 2.94 x, opened on 25th of 2015, so X-Mas day and Boxing Day were OD/first Friday and Saturday) Brothers (9.5 / 28.5 => 2.995866 ~3x, opened on the 4th) So just 12 of the Top 200 OW (06%) missed the 3x multiplier and of those just one! opened later than the 13th.