Taruseth

The first was good, so I was really excited for the second but I didn't like it and the trailers for the third looked absolutely atrocious. On Friday. The Weekend was won by TLJ and Commuter was just third. It wins the 5th weekend in Germany Has anyone any Idea what film were the latest to top for five weekend straight. DM3 was for four than in the fifth in #2 and than in the 6th returned to the Top for one last week. Okay, it was Minions that was on the top for the 1-5,7,10! Weekend

SO Deadline: With its 5th weekend counted, Star Wars: The Last Jedi has become the No. 10 movie ever at the all-time worldwide box office with $1,264.9M. That moves it into the position previously held by Disney’s own Beauty And The Beast (it needs another roughly $12M to beat Frozen). The Rian Johnson-helmed Episode VIII also has also become the No. 1 movie released in 2017 on a global basis. This session was worth $19M in 52 material markets to lift the international cume to $673.4M. In Europe, Jedi is now the No. 8 movie ever, passing The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. Germany and Switzerland both held the No. 1 position for the 5th weekend in a row. Also keeping grips on No. 1 after five weeks is Japan. China is the No. 6 market for the film overseas. The Top 5 are the UK ($107.3M), Germany ($77.6M), France ($60.1M), Japan ($58.1M) and Australia ($42.2M). China won't enter the Top 5 OS-Marekts. Compared to being second biggest OS for TFA and RO only behind the UK. (Last week means: Monday 8th) through Sunday (14th)) So the OS-China-Cume is $634,6M with a Top 5 Share of 54.4% and 51.3% of OS incl. China and 27.3% WW. Total: $15.4M needed for $650M (Last Week: $30.6M) UK: Last Week: $4.4M So that leaves $5.4M Germany: Last Week: $4.1M So that leaves $5.9M France: Last Week: $2.5M So that leaves $7.5M (Impossible) Japan: Last Week: $5.9M So that leaves $14.1M (Unlikely) Australia: Last Week: $2.4M So that leaves $2.6M So the other markets did $11.3M that leaves $3.7M-$8.7M and their Share actually increase by 0.6% to 36.9%. So Total OS-China might be 670M or a bit more. That would leave $610M Dom $40M Ch and $670M OS for $1320M WW for a OS+China Share of 53.8%, Would mean HP8 won't be overtaken. Seems like I am always too optimistic

Especially if SW8 and DbH both drop less.

Some Thursday estimates (source Insidekino): New Releases: The Commuter: 21K Wonder Wheel: 3K Holdovers: SW: TLJ: 27K (-74%) Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 18K (-72%) I think actuals will increase. The Greatest Showman: 14K Pitch Perfect 3: 10K (-74%) Jumanji: 9K (-85%) I think actuals will be double. Insidious: 7.5K (-82%) Aus dem Nichts 7K! The Leisure Seeker: 2.3K (-62%) Loving Vincent: 1.7K Based on this I would say either SW (I really hope it will, would be the fifth weekend and that alone means it most likely won't) or Dieses bescheuerte Herz will win the weekend. I doubt Jumanji will win. And with those estimates I think the Commuter won't win, normally New Releases have a bit worse internal multiplier.

Because Actuals than would be just 1.6M They should just report 20M, Actuals normally come in like 0.1M lower

Wow that Screen and Admissions/Box Office increases. From 2008 to 2017 the admissions sold nearly tenfold, that is crazy.

That looks awful Challenged for what. After 2015 being a good year, 2016 was horrible and 2017 is (based on the 52 weekends Top 10 on par and based on the fact that 2016 had 53 in a way, 2017 is behind) I think in total 2017 won't be ahead by much compared to 2016 if ahead ot all. And I think 2018 looks worse. No SW to safe the end of the year. No Fack You Goehte (at least many people watch that movie) And the rest also looks underwhelming. I hope 2019 will be better (at least there are going to be Frozen 2 and SW 9 in Dezember)

Clickbait. Like Cain. Yep, I was one of the people overpredicting that week, I thought 35 and 35 were possible.

Thanks for that.

I will disagree with you there. The Markets not named US, Can and China are responsible for 55% of the worldwide gross. So they are just as important. And movies already made profit before China was a big market. Even Expensive ones did.

That means Black Panther is cursed. JL will do let's say $230M (will be less) that are 38.3% so this would mean BP does a OW of $69M, that wouldn't be that good. Is it 3-day or 4-day? I am out for both (3- and 4-Day).

You don't need a good result in China if the result everywhere else is good. Yep I definitely do.

That doesn't always happen. And without Domestic most movies wouldn't do profit right now. I think China in generell isn't as important as Dom right now. Most movies would make profit without China, SW, BatB, most Superhero movies, Animation films (outside of Coco) etc. Even Fast & Furious would be profitable without China. China will continue to save franchises, yeah. China will become more important one day (maybe 2020, maybe 2200), because 1.3B vs. 330M people that might watch a movie.

I think this movie can go either way, as it still is one and a half year till it's release. Either it will get back into normal regions after BatB (so somewhere around Alice and Jungle Book ($330-370M) I doubt it will fall in the region of Cinderella, Oz and Maleficent ($200-240M)), or it will explode and gross more than BatB. If Disney does everything right, than the sky is the limit. I also think Beyonce in the cast might help too. I think the Opening Day has a Chance of being over Alice 2 and Opening Week might (if it is good!) be over Maleficent. As long as we now nothing apart from that I have no solid idea.

Were did Avatar over perform that much in Europe to beat Philosopher's Stones Admissions count by 30M million? France and Great Britain and probably in most smaller markets? But Philosopher's Stone really was impressive, both Dom an OS. In Germany it still holds the Opening Weekend Record with 2,590,464 admissions.

You expect $640M Domestic, that would surprise me. I think it will gross less.

As of 7th January: Deadline: With $67.4M in 55 material markets this session, Disney/Lucasfilm’s Episode VIII in the long-running saga is at $632.7M overseas[, only $28.7M came from China] [...] Globally, it’s risen to $1,205.2M. [...] In other Jedi news this weekend, it has become the 10th highest grossing movie ever in Europe and the biggest of films released in 2017. The UK has crossed $100M to make Episode VIII the 5th biggest film of all time in that market. In the UK and Germany, it’s the top title of 2017. In IMAX, Jedi is the No. 4 movie ever for the format globally ($115M). The international cume is $50M. It held No. 1s for the 4th weekend in a row in Japan, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary and Switzerland. Russia increased by 2% while other drops were low despite some competitive play. The UK leads all markets currently at $102.9M followed by Germany ($73.5M), France ($57.6M), Japan ($52.2M) and Australia ($39.8M). (Last week means: Monday 1th) through Sunday (7st)) So the OS-Ch-Cume is $604M Total: $46M Needed for $650M (Last week: $80.7M) Uk: $10M (=> Total: $112.9M) (Last week: $11.4M) (So $18.6M left for the initial $30M) Germany: $10M (=> Total: $83.5M) (Last week: $11.5M) (So $13.5M left for the $25M) France: $10M (=> Total: $67.6M) (Last week: $12M) (Just $3M left for $15M, underestimated the legs here) Japan: $20M (=> Total: $72.2M) (Last Week $11,8M) (Just $8.2M left for $20M, forgot the New Years etc. Holidays (Monday - Wednesday) Australia: $5M (=> Total: $44.8M) (Last Week $4.7M) (So $5.3M left for $10M) So just with that added Money Os-China would be $659M (and 57.8% would be from UK, Germany, France, Japan and Australia) The other Markets did $29.3M in the last week, they should add $15-20M more. $29.3M are just 36.3% of the Weeks gross, compared to 41.9% last week (so legs in the other Markets are worse Would leave TLJ with a Total of $674+M-$679+M OS-Ch, that would be between my most likely and high end. As of now I think UK and Germany still have a chance at grossing $18.6M and $13.5M instead of $10M each, but I wouldn't count on it as legs in Germany at least don't look that good anymore. That would put the OS-China gross at $686.1+M-$691.1+M, that certainly seems to high, because that would be above the small Chance, so Germany and the UK might really just gross $10M each Well, I certainly got carried away with the gross in China (Presales ahead of RO, on par with JL/Thor etc. ) and Domestic also now looks worse. Now I would put those at: low end: $1310M ($605M Dom, $35M China, $670M) (OS (including Ch): 53.6% most likely:$1332.5M ($620M, $37.5M, $675M) (OS%: 53.3%) high end: $1355M ($625M Dom, $40M China, $690M) (OS%: 53.7%) TFA: OS: 54.7% RO: OS: 49.6%

I thought it would finish with $32.5M

That would be better legs than both Titanic and Avatar, so highly unlikely. I think it will drop below the $1M in February (If it is good maybe late February) Avatars first day below 1M was the 8th March! 2010. Titanic's first day below was 30th March 1998 (the 102nd day!) Unless Avatar 2 sucks, than well it will drop below that earlier.

I thought you wanted to typ US That was my problem:

Where did I cherry pick markets it's doing not so well in?

And France and Germany and Scandinavia (They are little markets but SW is successful there. Denmark, Iceland, Finland, Norway and Sweden grosses $51M for TFA combined.)

I would say that Jumanji was the bigger surprise, as for It at least the out of this World Trailer views suggested people are interested and for Jumanji well the Trailers were awful.

Third InsideKino Trend: Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 450K (-47%) (Total: 5.18M Admissions) I had hopes for a better hold, at least it is up a bit from the other trends. Dieses bescherte Herz: 300K (-6%) Jumanji: 300k (-5%) Greatest Showman: 200K Insidious - The Last Key: 185!K (The First Trend was 150K) (Totals of the other Insidious Movies: Insidious: 181,691 (OW: 39,507); Insidious 2: 342,988 (OW: 104,106) , Insidious 3: 308.048 (OW: 57,415 (That seems really low))) Pitch Perfect 3: 150K (-26%) Ferdinand: 140K (-9%) Coco: 130K (-6%) Paddington: 75K (-24%) Murder on the Orient Express: 52.5K (-26%) The Leisure Seeker: 40K Loving Vincent: 37.5K (+23%) Fack Ju Göhte 3: 27.5K (-38%) (Total 6.030M Admissions)

Justice League is in 9th place, that means with Jumanji overtaking it, JL will be 10th, so still in the Top10 and I doubt any other movie that released last year, that isn't already ahead, is able to overtake JL.