Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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Everything is getting flopped in Korea recently, right? I haven’t been paying super close attention but looks like cinema going culture is practically dead at this point. Maybe avatar can do 10M at least?
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Mystery (always the new apple movie) Movie Not much of a mystery 🤣 -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Kind of remarkable how the comps have been like 25, 30.5 forever in Sacto… while we know they *must* converge to almost the exact same value in the end. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
Yeah I'm probably counting NWO as a first entry. -
My impression of the demo bias on LB suggests both will be super overrated -- is that correct?
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Is this true? I've never really looked into letterboxed but it seems to have the phase 4s pegged to a T at least. I agree CS and PT are what have real methodological oomph though, and rt gets legitimacy pretty exclusive from correlating them.
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WEEKEND ESTIMATE, hot off the presses:
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Yeah ftr it’s doing better than I expected and quite decently for a first movie about Black Adam. But that’s separate from in the black vs in the red accounting kind of arguments.
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FWIW BOP ended up forecasting 9.5 which looks right on the money. BOR has 11.3 and derby avg was 10.9, so I would say it’s a smidge below expectation. Expectations were to have a great OW for the franchise though, and that is basically still happening.
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Different genre/mpaa have a bit diff RTAud:CS correspondence but basically this looks reasonable. But converting 87%, which might look good at first glance but is actually kind of bad, to a B+ CS, which might look good at first glance but is actually kind of bad, doesn’t always bring that much clarity 😂 Personally my preference would be to report everything in Z scores but that also has some issues with intuitive interpretability for most people 😛
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Many ratings 80% is not just below average but quite bad. I think that’s pretty intuitive, but some people seem to want to interpret the numbers like they’re an OChem final.
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Fri not inflated at all then — last weekend deflation more dramatic than I realized. Props to M37 indeed.
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In the end what matters for DCEU is how DCEU movies do. In the end what matters for DC is how DC movies do. Some things may be true for one that are not true for the other. I feel like this is like, very very simple.
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1B for joker 2 optimistic sicne the first was a gigantic lightning in a bottle overperformance. The issue with 1B for AQM2 is mostly uncertainty about china these days. What is "that's what matters" even supposed to mean. The original claim you responded to was about the DCEU. Brining non DCEU movies into it is a total non sequitur, plain and simple. The two biggest DC movies recently being precisely the non DCEU ones is a big art of recognizing that the DCEU failed!
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6 unreleased movies you have to make pretty optimistic assumptions about is not where you want to be to demonstrate franchise strength 😆 (especially when 2 of them aren't even dceu) It's not exactly a big secret that it hasn't delivered what they hoped -- that's why it keeps getting shaken up on the management and creative side every few years. Maybe this last one will herald a glorious golden age of 2.5B a year or something, but it remains to be seen.
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This has exactly jackshit to do with whether something is a flop, lol Eternals, sadly, was also in the flop zone, with circa 200M theatrical rev on a est 200M prod budget.
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2021 has locked the win on movie reception and top movie performance. 2022 will take avg gross but it’s complicated by covid/pa factors and 3 first entries vs 3 sequels. TV show wise 2021 probably also wins though maybe gotg xmas is a masterpiece or something.
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Uhhh… what? Even if BP2 gets an A and does 550M I really dunno about this.
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Because of how much money it’s going to lose? Hardly the same thing as constantly spinning for said money loser.
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Ahhhh, you know, WS might be it
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Mon the 24 was inflated — Diwali I believe the main culprit there. Pretty confident sat numbers will bear out that Fri Nov 4 is also inflated across the board… though I’m not yet sure by what exactly.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
Cooper Legion replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
27-31*6.4-6.8 MoM had extremely strong d-10 to d-5 or so before stumbling a little at the finish line, so that comp will “surprisingly” start to veer up in the final few days. Not sure how much it will really gain on Thor at this point, but fingers crossed. -
Because it’s false that it will open under BP1, excellent idea
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Focus on the capitalized words and you shall find peace
