Cooper Legion

One of few great movies in Phase 4, gotta have a sequel.

US: 58% white 19 hispanic 12 black 6 Asian Looks like Lost City and Northman were very close, TGM is modestly white skewing.

NWH the true family movie

Same, but “I hope the finale delivers and salvages the issues with the last 2-3 eps after a strong start” is like 90% of shows and usually doesn’t work out so hot 🤞

You guys should probably ignore each other at this point 😆

I don’t know what you guys are even talking about. 700 is LOCKED. Purple user said so.

Well, it’s good to dream I guess?

I mean, this is just not true though. Theatrical rev is often about 60% of total revenue in deadline’s analyses which leave out some secondary sources of return — the normal state of affairs for successful movies is total rev>total costs>theatrical rev, so the ancillary stuff is what makes it “make” instead of “break.”

As I’m sure I posted in this thread way back when, have been expecting an Eternals 2 and with a solid chance of Chloe back. Should do 250+, hope they do it.

Inb4 tim Blake Nelson shows up this September

Similar to AM&tW. 55% down from two weeks ago for TGM. Similar Rest of week would be 8M weekdays, 605.5 cume from 23.5 7day. 700 still looking pretty good.

I don’t personally mind having a few 200k grossers, it’s always a matter of luck+skill and if we have a few months skewed on the volatile side, c’est la vie. But I do expect 10th place to be quite dire on some fall weekends, yeah. And even like, 7th place.

So I went digging a lil more: 12th 200M — Home alone Jan 1991 (1 yr and 0 quarters posts 1990) 12th 250M — Titanic Jan 1998 (8Y0Q) 12th 300M — SM1 May 2002 (12.25Y) 12th 350M — DMC Jul 2006 (16.5Y) 12th 400M — TLK Sep 2011 (21.5Y) 12th 450M — BatB Apr 2017 (27.25Y, 2MCU) 12th 500M — I2 Jul 2018 (28.5Y, 3MCU) 12th 550M — TGM Jul 2022 (32.5Y, 5MCU) 12th 600M — TGM Jul 2022 (32.5Y, 5MCU) Also fun fact, TGM will make it 7 movies in the top 12 with A+. From 200 to 450, 125% growth in 26.25 yrs, ~3.1% annual growth. From 450 to 600, 33% growth in 5.25yrs, 5.6% annual growth. From 200 to 600, 200% growth in 31.5yrs, 3.55% (mostly matching 200 to 400). Here’s an exponential regression from those milestones: Projected: 700M 2028 Q4 800 2032 Q4 900 2036 Q3 top dozen 1B 2039 Q4

11 yrs for +50% 9 for for +33% 11 for +50% Hello to 12 900M grossers in 2033

Well if BP also gets poor reception then the predictions fo a weak OW will indeed go 3 for 3.

I mean, if the backend wants to have 10 officially, this accomplishes that, and gives effectively double weight to the more important movies of the week.

Is it technically possible to have the same movie twice? e.g. a week of Thor Thor Minions Minions Top Gun Top Gun Elvis Dinos Phone Lightyear

Mexico didn’t give Dominion $200M either, SAD

Great SC Eternals Serviceable: BW NWH Yikes: Thor DS2

Discourse cycle: when a trailer drops some people chatter about vfx unionization, most say that it looks cool reviews drop, some people dredge up Scorsese most talk about the implication of the numbers on PS/BO movie opens and people react positively if it’s received well and overperforms or negatively if it’s received poorly and underperforms

This week at least pretty much the whole top 10 should go 900k+ Thor Minions Crawdads Top Gun Paws Elvis Dinos Phone Harris LY

Effective 3day for FFH is in 140-145 ballpark from various method, so right where Thor is. But FFH effective true OWeek off a fri open maybe 177ish, vs Thor 163ish, so 7M behind at end of first weekdays after ~7M ahead previews. Then add like 190M vs 150-160M, widening gap to 40-50M.

Fun fact: Between 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 exactly two movies finished between 230M and 315M DOM.

No movies between 220 and 320? We really have returned to prepandemic BO

Oh I forgot. Yeah Blaming Waldron is much better — in all seriousness the problems were in the script rather than the direction