Cooper Legion

Better to be a winner with headlines saying you lost than vice versa.

Yeah Thor true IM should be ~3 so 6 if Tfri is 1.67x or just 5 if Tfri is 1.33x

I forget the exact calcs at this point but I think I felt that with a -48 wed vertical the wknd should be softer than that especially since it was rebounding from the LY hit and TC loss wasn’t that bad.

You’re up 2.5 on grebacio, should be pretty locked https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BMEPoyDk7TN25-3VIR_jGTOPZlYulc6H6VbkXYDXkp0/edit

Outcrossing IX is weaksauce, outgrossing VIII and IX is the fun bit

As for myself I was really in the daily prediction from CGV PS zone in 2019, think I did really well during FFH/TLK/F2. But have also fallen a bit out of practice. Maybe get back in the saddle with Thor but part of it is that my new job hours just don’t line up as well.

Don’t listen to @pepsa

Well, certainly agree with that. I think it’s a very interesting time series prediction question that I may take more of a thorough/rigorous/sophisticated stab at if I ever find the free time. Looking just at Sacramento, a non pace based method I like to do for quick and dirty is to observes that right now Thor is pretty much halfway in between Batman and DS2 (8/5 and 5/8 respectively). So if it just adds the geomean of what they added, that gets to about 15.7k finish. If it’s final/d-12 multiple is the geomean of theirs, that would be 2,3x for 16k finish. Personal commentary is that DS2 was depressed in the final few days by mixed reviews and there’s good reason to think L&T can avoid this issue, so maybe 17-18k (30-31.5). But a more conservative approach would be 15.5-16 (27-28). Very tough to justify just the less than 7k additional sales to get to ~25 final comp.

Maybe a bit far in the other direction. Fir now thinking 27-31, 5.5-6

Ehh… I don’t want to get too much of a reputation as the splitting hairs over semantics guy, but sometimes splitting hairs is important, so here goes 😛 Sure, it is true that the data in hand does not say 28-30. Some assumptions about what the run looks like from now ‘til then have to be made to arrive there as a final range. But I would say, it is equally not the case that the data in hand says 24-25. Some assumptions about what the run looks like from now ‘til then have to be made to arrive there as a final range. Maybe the latter set of assumptions is better, but an actual affirmative case needs to be made for that — using the straight t-x comp implicitly embeds the rest of run sales ratio being equal to the cumulative sales ratio at t-x, which is a baseline heuristic that is probably pretty easy to outperform with some other pretty simply heuristics that incorporate e.g. recent pace, length of sales window, and raw level of sales. I understand the appeal of the t-x comp from a computational convenience standpoint, and I’m not saying they should be retired or anything, but I think it’s a bit pernicious as far as implying a certain number as a sort of “what it’s looking like right now” which is not necessarily what it’s actually looking at right then in any meaningful sense.

Ehhh… I don’t really think this is the most reasonable way to talk about the numbers. T-12 comps being 24 doesn’t really suggest the final num will be 24 unless the pace has been steady vs the comp. Haven’t done too much extrapolation recently but seems to be pointing more towards 28-30 for now.

130 200 is more likely (not to say that that is very likely either)

It will be comfortably #3 that weekend and Thor doesn't look like a true monster, screens shouldn't be too tight.

After Mon should be about 526M off a 51M 7day. Say 14M flat boost from July 4 and labor day, then needs 160M from the normal component of legs. About 24% drops, not too outlandish. I would personally say about 675 right now but with a solid (say 35%ish) chance to 700+

I know we were asked to drop the jed wom stuff -- to be clear the most recent discussion was a new topic, JWD competition, not reopening of JWD wom. But I bet the mods would prefer if we knocked off the completion talk as well since it's clearly not getting through.

The whole problem is you're trying to act like it's just the facts while making claims that are contrary to the facts.

If we did, for some reason, want to exclude TGM and I2 respectively: FK1st wk: 75 2nd wk: 130 3rd wknd 130 JWD: 26 2nd: 86M 3rd wknd: ~ 80

This has gotta be the funniest conception of how to measure competition I've ever seen

FK 1st week: 200M for other movies 2nd: 210 3rd wknd: ~160 JWD: 105M 2nd wk: 155M 3rd wknd: ~110M There’s a clear objective answer to what had more competition — sure ain’t JWD.

Frankly pretty crazy that it didn't kill streak despite the low opening. I think I noticed the trend when it was just 3/3 and made it as a small sample size joke -- but here we are at 6/6 and it's still unbroken. Whatever is first movie to miss I will give tons of grief

Guardians of the galaxy topped its 5th and 6th weekends.

Oh my god, do you actually believe JWD has better WoM than Lightyear

$0 daily pace, $0 cume, $0 previews. Rip taika