I mean, expanding because of unusual circumstances is the MCU's bread and butter. 2nd entries can expand off of the first being small because the characters were unknown. 3rd entries have basically all been unusual. If "normal" sequels stall out at ~ 300-400 2022 performance and they do a mix of first entries, normal sequels, and unusual sequels that is a great place to be
In infinity saga, movies with these reviews mostly got As. In that case this will be a righting of the ship.
If it gets A-, bit of a wuity issue emerging.
B+, mcu is in Crisis and must hope for coogler Reed Gunn to save us.
I think it's a bit early to say that. NWH and DS2 expanded humongously over prior entries, quantumania will as well. If Gotg3 and Marvels struggle that will still be about an even split of expansionary and flat which is averaging expansionary.
Certainly the expansion relies on a combination of quality and overarching story/teamups/crossovers though.
With DS2 finishing at 411.x, we have:
SM1 407.x
CW 408.x
IM3 409.x
DS2 411.x
WW1 412.x
So if this movie must disappoint, at least it should have the decency to do 410.x and connect the CBM fragments 😛
Rank adjusted infinity saga nonavengers OWs (arguably a *slight* lowball given recent atp spike):
IM1 — 191M
Hulk — 109M
IM2 — 220M
Thor — 109M
Cap1 — 103M
IM3 —260M
TDW — 130M
TWS — 143M
Gotg — 138M
AM1 — 71M
CW — 220M
DS1 — 103M
gotg2 — 169M
SMH — 145M
rag — 146M
BP — 220M
AM&tW — 86M
CM — 166M
2022 150 really not that big. It’s in the blockbuster realm for sure but pretty far removed from say, 2015 150. Don’t need triple juice for 150+, more in the range of a double.