Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Sure. I wouldn’t expect much above 8 though. -
If the CinemaScope is A- (or even B+) I don’t really think this will change any plans much. The crossovers, spin-offs, cameo appearances model is good for revitalizing the characters and the sequel anyway. Most of the stuff that you might think up to do as a reaction to a mixed first entry is stuff they were likely planning to do already.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Open the spoiler if you dare. MHA OD combined is +15% D-3 to D-1. DS previews +23%, DS OD +35%. Creepily similar to what we saw D-5 to D-3. Could conceivably have better final/D-1 despite the worse 5/3 and 3/1, but pretty dubious at this point. Comps are now: prev 2 OD 3.5 geomean 2.65 combined 2.7 One reason for the weaker pace here is that MHA has been on sale since Oct 1, so a 28 day run vs just 14 for DS. Not sure mtc2 ratio will actually be that much better, DS had a lot more mtc1 shows on fri relatively speaking. Gonna forecast 2.5-3 OD? Seems worse than various regionals are showing though. Sat PS are meh. Straight DS comp gives 2.1, so probably a small drop from Fri, though don’t have pace there. Maybe 2.2-2.6 IM, 6-8 weekend? Would be rather a comedown from Heros Rising which probably would have done some 9M+ adjusted with a fri release. Much harsher competition environment here than either hero’s rising or DS had tbf. -
Weekday Numbers (10/25-28) | Dune 3.65M Monday
Cooper Legion replied to Eric Prime's topic in Numbers and Data
Basically I think the sat bounce should be stronger but that will nearly cancel with Halloween on Sun and wknd drop should be quite close to true fri drop. -
Weekday Numbers (10/25-28) | Dune 3.65M Monday
Cooper Legion replied to Eric Prime's topic in Numbers and Data
To end up at 16 I would be looking at about: 2.75 5 6.86 4.14 If Fri has a 50% drop that would be great, probably 19+ weekend! -
Weekday Numbers (10/25-28) | Dune 3.65M Monday
Cooper Legion replied to Eric Prime's topic in Numbers and Data
Fair point on the competition, should be able to beat NTTD’s Th drop. Though despite expected combined grosses of just 25-30 or so, there is a lot opening this weekend — antlers, soho, MHA, and dispatch will probably get like 6500 locations combined. I think a weaker Friday bump is a pretty reasonable expectation. And although the wed/sat is pretty comparable, being available on max could hurt the 2nd wknd/wed especially if PLF spillover runs out. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
This Saturday is completely wack -
Weekday Numbers (10/25-28) | Dune 3.65M Monday
Cooper Legion replied to Eric Prime's topic in Numbers and Data
17.6 with nttd’s wknd/wed. 25M with gravity’s, but I don’t think that’s a great comp. 16M with The Last Duel’s. I would say maybe 2:1 weighted of NTTD vs TLD is 17M, then a roughly 6% penalty fo Halloween gives ~16M or -61%. But let’s see. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Secretly Dune 2 was coming out just a week later all along 👀 -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
I mean, we have BW vs SC final Th ATP, right? Eternals should be around SC, maybe 1-2% higher? -
On the one hand, scores are annoying because 100M might have been close enough for them to make the difference. On the other hand, Spider-man was the first 100M OW, Spider-man 3 was the first 150M OW, and a first-of-its-kind MCU crossover featuring characters from 5 different prior movies was the first 200M OW. Maybe this is a glimpse at the grand design
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Cooper Legion replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Various comps and raw data under spoiler for post length sake 😛 MHA OD combined is +15% D-5 to D-3. DS previews +21%, DS OD +36%. Could conceivably have better final/D-3 despite the worse 5/3, but it’s not a great pace. Comps are now: prev 2.2 OD 4.1 geomean 3 combined 3 Even if the straight comp drops to 2.5, should be able to do 3+ in actuality given changed MTC2 ratio. Unclear what IM will be, but I am thinking 3rd for the weekend +-1. -
Yeah. It’s funny how we basically know this with certainty — the huge gap between Kamen and SW mean that a gross anyway from 14B-40B or so puts it at the same rank 😆
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Okay but more seriously, Demon Slayer will rank loltastically high after a 2nd movie.
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The issues mentioned in negative reviews seem to be relative specific to this being a new entry and trying to introduce 10 unknowns. Something like a Black Knight+Sersi show or Ikaris and phastos popping up in avengers 5 or whatever wouldn’t really be affected, and Eternals 2 would likely be a pretty differently structured movie anyway so I doubt much effect there either.
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Wow, Demon Slayer couldn’t even beat MCU, just goes to show what is really popular in Japan
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