Cooper Legion

I haven’t seen the movie (or in fact, any movie in this franchise, or any slasher ever), but I imagine they would fill at least a couple hours with “see, this is why defund was dumb and cops needs more tanks” sort of riffs. Also noting that Michael is obviously Antifa.

A realistic worst case scenario at this point is like 5 15 14 8 for 42M. More likely to go over 50 than under 40 (it will very probably stay in the 40-50 zone tbc)

I mean I doubt he even gets to the Vegas shooting nums and that was largely forgotten within a month. “Bunch of people killed by maniac” doesn’t stick with American public/media the way important stories like “some Dr. Suess books going out of print” do.

Trailer still good. Movie still bad. It’s pretty okay until the 3rd act gets going.

Even though I’m not surprised by it as much as it seems like many (older) people are, I do think the question of “what changed” is a very interesting one, sociologically. Because it is definitely true that this whole style of adult drama movies could do huge business for decades and decades, and that’s pretty much stopped. Personally I think a lot has to do with: increases in visual effects tech making action spectacles more grandiose/affordable streaming emerging as a convenient alternative for movies without too much spectacle especially Social media driving a different mode of social engagement and conversation about movies — Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, insta etc are good for driving fandom style engagement which adult dramas aren’t really designed to generate, and I think this is (partly) behind the massive IP/sequel/franchise/reboot/spinoff era which again largely excludes adult dramas

It's because the marvel film is way more fun and appealing 😛

I mean, a Max release could do like 200M+ OW. If Endgame had a max distribution maybe 250+? The issue is not some theoretical ceiling so much as what the nonMax OW would be and how much percentage hit that style of movie takes (GvK, Dune, and M4 should be hurt less than your reminiscence, macho, Newark, Richard stuff)

65-90 (beat geomean by 5%) 35-55 (beat geomean by 70%) 95-155 👀😉🧐

Too low, but I don’t have time to dig up BW or SC initial ranges right now: https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-eternals/

Exactly! It’s a blockbuster, so I don’t expect its success to translate to big nums for Richard.

I know dune is about to do pretty okay, but I feel like “adult drama on hbo max in a crowded theatrical date” is a formula for some more real low nums.

I have about a 45M opening day in mind. We’ve been talking box office for these films, no? Not “artistic value” or whatever.

Gucci+Richard combined under Eternals OD

It’s a meme on the original Dawkins sense, though not the predominant internet humor meaning nowadays. If you’d prefer: CG hate is such a tired trope.

Nah, there’s a reason I didn’t write it 90-55-45-40-90

Yeah, would be useful to know the rating that these users gave to v1. Would not be shocked if it was also low 6.

PART A: Below are 8 films due for release between this weekend and Christmas Day, along with their predicted total grosses according to a random number generator (seriously, I'm picking random numbers from within a range) 1. Halloween $100M too high 2. Dune $88M too low 3. Ron's Gone Wrong $63M too high 4. Clifford $95M too high 5. Ghostbusters $76M too low 6. King Richard $46M Half 7. Resident Evil $26M Too low 8. Cyrano $38M Half All you have to do is predict whether the predictions above are too high, or too low. You can choose to predict for as many or as few films as you wish. If you wish to go further, you could also choose to wager that a film will make less than half or more than double the above predictions. These predictions have bigger risks and bigger rewards. Please use these words Too High - the prediction is too high Too Low - the prediction is too low Double - The film will make more than double the prediction Half - The film will make less than half the prediction Predictions will be scored as follows: Correct High/Low Prediction - 8000 points Correct Double/Half Prediction - 20000 points Incorrect High/Low Prediction - Minus 6000 points Incorrect Double/Half Prediction - Minus 15000 points PART B: Here are 10 questions: 1. Which film will be the lowest grossing? Cyrano 2. Which film will be the highest grossing without making more than $75M? Clifford 3. Will exactly three films make the Domestic top 10? No 4. Will any film double its predicted gross? No 5. Will any film fail to reach half of its predicted gross? Yes 6. Will the actual combined total gross for the films be higher or lower than the predicted total gross? Lower 7. Percentage wise, what will be the best prediction? Halloween 8. Percentage wise, what will be the worst prediction? Cyrano 9. Will 3 or more films open in the number 1 position? Yes 10. Will 3 or more of these films open in 4th or lower? No Predictions will be scored as follows: Number of correct answers in Part A x Number of correct answers in Part B x 1000 So if you got 6 correct in part A and 4 correct in part B, you will score: 6 x 4 x 1000 = 24,000 points for part B. There is no risk of losing points in part B. There is also the option to abstain from this question. If you state that you Abstain in this Thread, you will receive 3000 points Any player who does not predict or state abstain in this thread will lose 10000 points The Deadline is Thursday October 14th at 11:59pm (Weekend start time)

Weekly Questions will have 13 questions, except for the weeks that don't: Part A: 1. Will Halloween Kills to more than $40M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Halloween Kills to more than $47.5M? 2000 No 3. Will Halloween Kills to more than $32.5M 3000 Yes 4. Will every day of Halloween's 3 day weekend gross more than Last Duel's total weekend gross? 4000 Yes 5. Will The Last Duel gross more than 7M? 1000 No 6. Will No Time To Time drop more than 64%? 2000 No 7. Will Many Saints of Newark stay above Evan Hanson? 3000 yes 8. Will Lamb have a PTA above $1000? 4000 no 9 Will Shang Chi drop more than 33%? 1000 No 10. Will Candyman stay in the top 10? 2000 yes 11. Will Bergman Island open above The Grand Duke of Corsica? 3000 yes 12. Will The Addams Family stay in the top 4? 4000 Yes 13. Will No Time To Die's Weekend total be closer to the weekend total of Venom or Halloween? 6000 Venom Bonus: 6/13 2000 7/13 4000 8/13 6000 9/13 9000 10/13 12000 11/13 16000 12/13 20,000 13/13 24,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Halloween Kills make for its 3 day OW? 46.4M 2. What will Free Guy's's percentage drop be? 34% 3. What will Paw Patrol's PTA be for the 3 day weekend? 450 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 1. HWK 3. V2 5. Last Duel 7. Free Guy 9. Candyman 12. Newark Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000

Couple of millions would be like 20M+, so we definitely cannot

If V2 tanks here imma be real conflicted.

We should get Soho tracking from BOP later today (along with Eternals). Personally I am expecting maybe 8M. Seems like there are some advanced shows Wednesday like with bond.

90-55-45-40 first place followed by 90+ is nothing numbers now? That’s not a bad fall stretch pre-covid…

You know I fully agree, but silly execs don’t seem to think so 😒

IMO BP2 is an easy 200+ and Thor+gotg3 have decent shots with outside shots from DS2, JW dominion, and marvels.

Assuming this is like 100 mins it should make a real bang on the Nielsen chart, easily the highest week yet for an MCU show and probably D+ overall (current record goes to Luke Skywalker with 1.336B).