Cooper Legion

“Sun drop will shows the legs” squad feeling 😬 with that -39% Doesn’t feel too bad to me, this was a pretty school night Sunday. But that also emphasizes how the Sat bump (8.6% with actuals) was regular/perhaps on the weak side of reguar.

DOM top 5 would be what, MCU+wildcard? GvK or M4? Perhaps only 3 would make it, then 2 of M4/GvK/some random overperformer?

Most of the August showings I’ve been at (a Richmond midplex) have been pretty dead, but BW previews were a packed house with no masks in a several hundred seater. Great stuff, 100% comfortable there with my 65 year old dad. The vaccines are great folks!

Aren’t you vaccinated (and pretty young)?

This is actually pretty well known I think, as it is also the highest post-2019 DOM gross and people are waiting for a post-pandemic film to finally topple it (Shang-Chi is on the case )

Lil followup as I got curious. My suspicion (someone feel free to double check) is that AQP2 holds the post-pandemic record 4th-8th weekends atm. Really solid mid legs there. It fell behind Croods on the 9th weekend, 1.77M vs 1.795M, and then was substantially behind from the 10th onward. Of course, a lot of even huge opening and well-legging pre-pandemic movies were behind Croods for 10th weekend onward.

Yep. BW and F9 were hanging at around 15-20% of their true FSS, AQP2 and JC 25-30%, and Free Guy is like “sup guys, still at more than 50%.”

Oh yeah, Free Guy grabs the biggest post-pandemic 3rd weekend by over 10% 1)FG 13.5M 2) AQP2 12M 3) BW 11.6M 4) F9 11.4M 5) JC 9M Will presumably have the biggest 4th, 5th, 6th etc until falling behind Croods nutty late wknds at some point.

Anyway the FG drop is basically identical to last week on SatSun, just not weighed down by the Th previews anymore. 13M was where I had it like 7 days ago.

I don’t think the GA agrees with your first sentence at this point, lol. I’m sure that’s how the directors want to think of it, but their wishes won’t make the consumers act as such. Cinematic as in needing to be seen in a cinema (instead of your living room).

Catching up on the thread, I see I picked a great 4 hr period to be asleep Re: WoH Dec, 110 for NWH Matrix trilogy was huuuuuuuuuuuuuge, but, like Dune, it’s just some streaming movie with a theater release alongside. Doesn’t seem as cinematic as GvK, not sure it can match its 100M.

preaching to the club 😛 Just gotta have sales pop this final week, I do still think it’s well within reason but want to keep expectations shaded a little just in case.

Hmm, I dunno, 1st sun drop has a lot to do with demos and seasonality. If you built a model to predict 2nd weekend drop from Sun drop might find it getting p tricky to beat some comparably simple baselines.

Wow, the top posters for this thread is really sad. I resolve to take 2nd place if we ever get rolling again with some solid nums (which I expect by Dec or so, hopefully).

Notable Spiral is the only one of these which wasn’t more summer than Candyman. The seasonal influence on Th:F:S:S ratios isn’t everything, but it is pretty important to keep in mind.

Anyway, gotta go to bed. Numbers for this weekend, where the story is Candyman, are gonna roll in soon so I am happy to wrap this tangent up here: 50M 3day would be, like, okay I guess. Better/high end of many recent expectations 60M would be pretty strong 70M would be excellent 80M would be extremely slammin’ It’s probably going for like 69+- 6, though I would love an upside surprise.

He did though. I did see you repeatedly ask him for some real nums, and I wish he had responded then so I knew he wasn’t as optimistic as I assumed from the imprecise language. But you can still take a position without giving a precise number if you’re dunking on people who are giving numbers as being way too low, which he did.

I was curious about what concrete numbers I put out around TSS opening, looks like these were the only two. I think I was trying to avoid too precise numbers before PS started, but this vs the contemporary comments in the thread is still pretty clear.

To be fair to EC, that club was after PS start and two weeks removed from TSS. I believe his basic point (accurate) was there that were a bunch of chicken littles around here after and leading up to TSS — Aug 1-10, or so. And they shouldn’t be calling him conservative on SC, even if they have now changed to be more bullish on it than him, because it was going against that earlier grain which he stuck his neck out on. Which is all very fair. But doesn’t apply to me, specifically. I’ve been optimistic (vs the average, I would say realistic) all the way though.

Uhhh…. No.Well, I mean, misfits certainly. But they don’t think 60M is conservative even right now. They are way low on the movie still. We are two very different people. If I had been pessimistic in early August we’d have a very different story. Please, enjoy searching up my Shang-chi posts through August, if you have the time. You’ll find that I’m quite justified in calling 60M conservative. Though to be clear, it’s more that 60 is conservative from a (vocally, but as misfits points out, rather vaguely) self-styled optimist on the subject. It would be aggressive from a self-styled pessimistic or normal seeming from a self-styled realist.

There’s nothing subpar about 60M under the circumstances and for a new character (though I would, personally, be a little disappointed by it). And 60 would be substantially toward the 80 end of a 35-80 range (which is comically broad to begin with). Finally the industry would be ecstatic to learn that it was given that the case avg will be at ~200k vs 30k.

Give it another few days to finalize for safety and tradition, but feeling a flop bar™️ of 72,810,712

Is Mr Positive On Movies During Delta really going just for 60M 3day? Downright conservative.

Free Guy and JC have been playing great all month and are just the demo to have the 4day be like +33% from the 3day. They should do great, especially since there is so much other low PSA dreck to clean out for SC. Candyman had a, at best, normal Sat. Agreed the th:tfti was healthy though. An IM of 11.5 or so with a normal Sun seems likely. Agree with krissykin that the high PLF % the weekend before getting PLF slammed doesn't bode great. It would be lucky imo to ride the boosted Sun to a 50% drop from pure fss, for 10M3 day 12ish 4day. Plausible behind FG, could be a case where Candy takes the 3D and FG the 4D.

I don’t know what to tell you guys. It seemed pretty obvious and normal that it would bump a little from true fri, the bump being single digits is a little surprising to me on the low side (though perfectly within normal).