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Cooper Legion

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Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Cooper Legion
    We often don’t see eye to eye but this is succinct and 100% correct.
  2. Cooper Legion
    Will it? SC probably have similarly good WOM and similarly no competition.
  3. Cooper Legion
    I gave it a pessimistic sun drop because I know you’re trying to be pessimistic 😛
  4. Cooper Legion
    Probably just 3 weekends #1 (first movie since GvK) but if things fall just right could go for 4 or 5 (I expect AF2 will get plenty of screens now despite 0 day PVOD and easily beat it if DEH misses, but stranger things have happened).
  5. Cooper Legion
    FTFW
  6. Cooper Legion
    This would be an awful Sat, what runs are you comping with?
  7. Cooper Legion
    Just gotta out, gotta catch up on some threads around here. Definitely designed first and foremost with American cultural/comedic sensibilities, I can understand so-so reception in some Asian markets. That did, for DOM, an absolute crowdpleaser. Very well put together, well paced, gorgeous, hilarious, surprisingly emotional. Your typical marvel solo grand slam, probably just below IM1, GOtG1, and (close for me) BP for first entries. A definite GA accessible feel good 4 quad, action comedy and drama in solid balance. I think BB4L is toast.
  8. Cooper Legion
    Obviously we’ll have some high regions and some low ones, but good reason to think Canada and Regal can both overindex. It sounds like MTCs may come in 9.5ish and I think it’s about even on going O/U what they suggest this time.
  9. Cooper Legion
    All these regionals look like 9+ to me after atp. Maybe everything just looks like 9-10 to my fandom addled brain, but then we have the MTCs.
  10. Cooper Legion
    I feel like this has gotta be @Shawn and co recognizing professional incentives to herd rather than a serious best guess forecast. No disrespect meant but how are you possibly getting 45 from these sales. It’s literally an excellent range for the Sat cume.
  11. Cooper Legion
    Yeah it’s basically not possible without mass cancellations lol. Just wanted a figure “low” enough to get the point across emphatically — no matter how much effect you think Ida will have (personally, not that much) this thing basically can’t have a preview number which would make doom and gloom make sense!
  12. Cooper Legion
    Yeah, I’m not confined the actual number will be above the sacto ticket vs ticket anymore like it usually would be. 8.7 tonight would be a great result tonight with some regions depressed.
  13. Cooper Legion
    Right, what I wanted to confirm was the before any atp adjustments. I know you said a while ago that you might try to incorporate that sort of thing at final bell. Pretty sure you mean 8.7 before but wanted to get totally clear.
  14. Cooper Legion
    70% for 2nd half of day will be 8.7 before any atp adjustment, right porthos? I would definitely consider that Sacto pointing to over 9 in reality — though with cancelled showings in parts of northeast, all other regions may turn in more of a regional overperformance than expected Tuesday. Philly+MTCs will tell the tale. I just woke up and read through the thread… …as the board member with perhaps the highest expectations for Shang-Chi just gotta say “LOL” at the proclivity for mass hysteria around here. Even if ida pushes this to 7 previews or something, that will be absolutely fine. The business mostly just moves to later days and inflates the IM. Perhaps 7*11 in a negative case? I would personally be fine with that given external circumstances, and the industry will consider Ida as well if need be when evaluating the performance. Everything is fine.
  15. Cooper Legion
    Yeah, legs should be better at least. How is the impact of vaccine passports at the moment?
  16. Cooper Legion
    Yikes
  17. Cooper Legion
    My god, it’s so late in our time zone I assumed you had already posted Anyway lovely day, regionals with atp adjustment seem like they’re heading toward the 9-10 zone just like MTCs. Edit: from the reacts I see we have plenty of pacific nightbirds here!
  18. Cooper Legion
    Mentioned this is club thread, but currently expecting Fri PS to be at 87% of Th on the final update tomorrow, and then go about 2.55x PSm (this can be argued a little optimistic). That would give Friday as 2.2 or so of Th. From current 9.4 preview thoughts would get you 20.7M, and using my optimistic expectations for good reception and daily bumps/drops about 10.25x IM and 96M weekend. With 9 previews and more conservative 2.43x PSm+ 4x true IM would be looking like 19 Fri, 85M 4day. We could get even lower of course but that’s where we start to need at least one factor to trend poorly. Optimistic case I guess 9.8*10.4 is 102.
  19. Cooper Legion
    Yeah as always the last day is make or break in the end 😛 I’m getting around 9.4 if the final day multiplier is 2:1 weighted combination of BW and TSS, or 9.3 if it’s 3:1 weighted. I don’t think it will go below that though of course no guarantees.
  20. Cooper Legion
    Slower than I would have liked but only by a tad. Given the weather in northeast I’d say a perfectly solid day. I am going back down to 9-10 though.
  21. Cooper Legion
    Funny coincidence for now the eps are rated: 7.2 8.2 8.2 9.2 on IMDb. Matches my personal impressions pretty well though I think the first May be suffering from the user base demographics.
  22. Cooper Legion
    Au contraire, mon frère. Bad weather Wednesday that doesn’t last through Thursday can be used to explain slight Wednesday weakness and expect a stronger Th boost from that deflated Wed, keeping us on track for 9.7
  23. Cooper Legion
    Probably what I’ll do in the future is: “Meltdown bar: $abc,def,ghi [spoiler box explaining the context and some more serious information about what sort of numbers might be excellent/great/good/fine/bad/actually meltdown worthy]”
  24. Cooper Legion
    This is a valid concern but using language that caters to those who aren’t in on the joke is no fun at all 😛
  25. Cooper Legion
    Put another way, there is no point in issuing an actual meltdown bar for a movie where collective expectations are so miscalibrated on the low side that the level of performance which would trigger a for realsies meltdown can’t actually happen. I will shorten it to “crumbling bar” in the future for such cases, and likely continue to use “meltdown bar” if the collective expectations are well-calibrated such that my 10th percentile target actually does risk some real melting down.
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