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salvador-232

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About salvador-232

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  1. Some Actuals from last weekend (March 14-17th) Captain Marvel 1 4 $1,496,249 -35.9% - - - $4,167,639 2 Wonder Park 0 4 n/a - - - - $197,363 1 A Dog's Way Home 2 4 $91,394 -42.4% 70 -13 $1,306 $1,044,567 4 HTTYD 3 3 4 $63,665 -50.6% 58 -6 $1,098 $4,837,782 8 Captain Marvel fell harsher than expected but is still a very good hold. Its weekdays have been weak tough. Still on course to around 7m+ Wonder Park debut was very meh but is the default option for families and kids from now until... eh... Uglydolls on mid May. (Doubt Dumbo will make much and Pikachu would be more geared towards general audiences here). There has been at least one animated movie on the top ten every week since at least 2014 and I think that streak is going to be broken HTTYD 3 is now paying for its poor holds over summer. Unless avge ticket price is very low, I find hard for it to beat even HTTYD2. It would need a very prolific second life in the independent/arthouse system (Most movies are re-released there a few months after they leave multiplexes, especially animation) but that usually is 5k admissions at best and we would only know on 2020. It passed 1.000.000 admissions on its seventh weekend (March 7-10th)
  2. salvador-232

    Toy Story 4 | June 20, 2019

    I haven't done the calculus for all the markets. But right now it would lose 20m from UK, 21m from Mexico and 30m from Japan using current ER. Just those 3 markets put its OS total below not just I2 but Coco.
  3. Probably has to do that I didn't know that the third had come out until I joined this forum (And honestly, this applies basically to almost all DreamWorks in the last decade)
  4. Yeah. Most blockbusters come with "Distributor's Restriction" which generally last for the first week (two for very big movies). It usually bans any free tickets and any kind of discounts promotions. Sometimes distributors do "soft" restrictions that only ban free tickets. This all depends on the confidence that they have on the movies (For example, Infinity War had two weeks of full restriction, Black Panther had one week of soft restriction, Ant Man didn't have any) The effect on the average ticket price for the movie is fairly big. Using current ER, Infinity War had a steady avge ticket price of 6,36 dollars during its two weeks of restrictions. When it was lifted, it immediately dropped to 5,1 on its third week. After that, the ticket price starts to dive (4,67 on the fourth week and continued to fall for the rest of its run) This system is what makes Chile one of the most backloaded markets of Latin America, since people like spending as little as possible on tickets, and many people avoid seeing any movie on its first weekend even if it doesn't have any restriction
  5. Almost impossible. With restrictions lifted the ticket price will fall very quickly. It will also suffer a harsh drop this weekend (totally normal after the first weekend with discounts). I think it will end around 7m-8m, which would still be insane for a solo movie
  6. Top 5 weekend March 7th-10th Captain Marvel Wonder Park Cold Pursuit A dog's way Home How To Train Your Dragon 3 Captain Marvel eased just 30% (per Asgard) to achieve a very impressive 1,6m USD second weekend. No doubt aided by Endgame's trailer and the lift of restrictions on discounts but is the second best 2nd weekend hold for the MCU after The Avengers (-20% in 2012). Wonder Park and Cold Pursuit didn't bomb entirely but the rest of the BO is rather weak so its placement isn't much indication of anything.
  7. salvador-232

    The Lion King OS Thread

    Argentina is a very special case in that's it has had very high inflation and the ER had been in a steady decline for years. However, until 2017 the inflation of tickets prices compensated the constant fall of the ER. That changed last year when the local currency depreciated at 2x the inflation rate and now Argentina is much smaller in dollars. Furthermore, monetary policies of the Argentinean Central Bank make very hard for the inflation to catch up with ER. Argentina economy right now is in crisis and the ER is very unstable and any political or commodity circumstances could make it to collapse again
  8. salvador-232

    The Lion King OS Thread

    Argentina could do 12-15m if ER manage to not collapse again at some point between now and LK run (highly unlikely if I'm being honest). That would require 3m admissions and top ten of all time but last year both Coco and Incredibles 2 did it and TLK has a Winter Holidays release date which basically guarantees it will be a huge hit. If you want to get really optimistic 17-20m can happen with over 4m admissions but that's way more hard and I have 0 faith in the ER
  9. Some weekend actuals (March 7-10th) - Captain Marvel Disney $2,334,642 - n/a - n/a $2,334,642 1 - A Dog's Way Home Sony $158,746 -40.2% 83 -12 $1,913 $919,791 3 - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World UPI $128,903 -47.0% 64 -10 $2,014 $4,751,033 7 - Green Book Sun $49,146 -48.9% 27 -32 $1,820 $377,287 4 - On the Basis of Sex Sun $13,155 - 12 - $1,096 $13,155 1 - Glass Disney $11,962 -70.5% n/a - n/a $1,438,395 8 HUGE opening for Captain Marvel with a ridiculous average ticket price. Almost 7 dollars (standard is 4,7 with current ER). Should pass 6m USD easily even with almost unprecedented frontloadeness. A dog's Way home continues to be a surprise hit while Dragons 3 suffered a harsh but expected drop. Honestly very disappointing legs after its second-weekend hold. Could miss 5m USD if Wonder Park hits it too hard in terms of screens.
  10. Disney wanted a higher share of the BO but Cinemas threatened with not showing the movie at all. In the end, Disney caved and the movie was released but in fewer theaters than usual (Cars 3 was released in over 1000 screens but Coco just in 600, | only good comparison I found as studios count screens differently)
  11. Mojo has an obsession with adjusting Argentina's grosses by ER. As Argentina has very high inflation, its ER is in a never ending process of devaluation, but until last year that didn't affect the BO as ticket prices rose and compensated the fall of the ER. But in Mojo: Coco went from 17,9 to 9,4m. DM3 went from 23m to 300k usd. Minions from 36m to 9m. Avatar from 13m to 1,8m You just can't trust any Argentinean number from Mojo older than 3 months. The Numbers doesn't do that and has the "real" numbers. Or you can just check what numbers Mojo had until it decided to get stupid, just don't use the topline number.
  12. Just one thing. Don't use Mojo for any Argentinean number, any. Use The Numbers. Also: one for you: Coco: ~130m USD Latin America. Brazil: 9,3m USD Brazil's share: 7,1% That boycott really affected the movie. Easily the most divergent result between Brazil and the rest of LA. Deserves an spot in your list of "underperforming movies". It still blows my mind that it grossed more in Chile than in Brazil!!
  13. salvador-232

    Tuesday #s - CM 14.6m

    Discount days varies from country to country if they exist at all. Besides, China is by far the largest grosser and is dropping like a rock there
  14. salvador-232

    Tuesday #s - CM 14.6m

    You keep being so smug about this but you wanted Alita to do 5m instead of 3,2m over the weekend which is just a bit more than 500k per day
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