Cooper Legion

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nbUwFpXB-2tRVK9__vor4rB-_CVofympwJa_Dk0qXj4/edit

Loki is provisional of course. Hoping to give WhatIf a 10. Ragnarok-Endgame truly an insane run.

Oh, that graph is nice way to show it. Could you make a template copy and share it?

If we go 40M OD I’ll just call that 76M True FSS. Should go to 13.2+76*3 at least (not expecting too much more since reception is good not great). That would be 240. Would have loved 300 but between PA and covid issues dragging on it’s a pretty strong showing. I imagine Disney will be quite happy in terms of ROI as well but we’ll need to wait like a month for Nielsen data and even that is imperfect. 😔

It’s better than a lot of MCU As, but then again so is AM&tW. Too bad there isn’t more granularity, there are some As that I suspect were very close to A+ and some I suspect were very close to A-, whereas I assume this A- is very close to A bit if it was very close to B+ that would be much more concerning.

Neat post. And I want to thank you especially for providing that raw data, which was very convenient to pop into a sheet and play around with directly. Unfortunately, I must confess that the results of that playing around leave me a little skeptical as to the usefulness of this particular observation. It’s true that the linear fit is very robust, but this seems more like an artifact of the mathematical nature of the two quantities involved than a causal relationship that can be used for forward prediction. Specifically: OW=prev+TFri+Sat+Sun ->OW=prev+TFri+TFri*(Sat/TFri)+TFri*(Sat/TFri)*(Sun/Sat) ->OW=prev+TFri(1+Sat%+Sat%*Sun%) ->OW/prev=(prev+TFri(1+Sat%+Sat%*Sun%))/prev ->IM=1+(TFri/prev)(1+Sat%+Sat%*Sun%) Which makes the implicit linear nature of the relationship fairly clear. That (1+Sat%+Sat%*Sun%) term btw is equal to True FSS/TFri, a quantity I like to call the true IM. In any case, this shows that the more stable True IMs are from movie to movie, the stronger a fit we should have between Tfri/prev and IM. And since in practice both Sat/TFri and Sun/Sat tend to fall in fairly reliable ranges for openers of this size (.95-1.25 or so for Sat/TFri and .7-.85 for Sun/Sat), the True IM indeed tends to be pretty stable. The prediction of Sat+Sun based on that linear correlation and data for prev+True Fri (implied from OW~=prev*(2.82(TFri/prev)+1.38) )looks decent at first, but actually slightly underperforms a simple baseline model of True IM fixed at the geometric mean true IM of those movies (implied from OW=Prev+TFri*2.94) in terms of % error or rmse. FWIW the baseline model suggests 92M from a 40M OD, but I think if you had a baseline seasonal with a school_fri/not_school_fri variable that used either geomean school_fri True IM or geomean not_school_fri True IM, as appropriate, you would see significant gains (since Sat% is more important than Sun% and largely governed by whether Sat vs Fri is non school vs or nonschool vs nonschool). I feel fairly confident that not_school_fri True IM would be 2.85 or less, and there are reasons to expect it even lower for BW specifically, thus my 40->89M suggestion above. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11m0LufC32ioQS-ZJa81voHhKEd2XiJShnGIV60wRcl0/edit

I really don’t know if the 82 means anything, just interpreting as 40M OD personally. That should take it to about 89 or so, obviously Sat is a very important variable and could play out in a couple different ways.

Youch

F9 true fri: 22.76 +20%: 27.3M (40.5 OD) +25%: 28.5M (41.7 OD) +27.5%: 29M (42.2 OD) +30%: 29.6M (42.8 OD) +33%: 30.3M (43.5 OD) I guess BW will beat F9 more at MTCs than non MTCs? Otherwise looking pretty big. 30.3 is about what I’d need to see for 100M to stay in play, and even then it’s unlikely. But 90s would be neat

What a weird scene to make a thing of, lmao

what scene?

40 is about what I was expecting anyway, should take us to 88+ 41 would be a lot nicer than 39 though 😛

No way the GA cares (or knows) about Pratt’s politics.

Caps were never restricting business that much, aside from the very specific case of GvK. There’s just enough seats in the country that only offering 50% doesn’t create a true supple and demand problem for movies of this size (obv IW or it’s ilk would be massively affected). Ontario is a whole different situation, that’s a population which straight up couldn’t see movies. But it’s also like, 4% of DOM or something? And it will recover gradually. So I don’t expect some immediate huge boost.

I think it does about the same in that world and in May 2023. GOtG1 opened 32nd, Gotg2 17th. MCU threequels are often pretty juiced so could that get like 10th-7th with a 200M? Sure, maybe. I’d go for more like 180 I guess.

Nah, went fairly conservative on that one. Just 440 would be basically a flat performance from gotg2 (adjusted for 2023 vs 2017), which also had no big hook. It’s just a very well liked team, and they’ll have appeared in IW+Endgame+Thor4 in the meantime. If the theatrical marketplace is permanently deflated blah blah blah then of course go a little lower.

DS2 350+ CM2 320+ Gotg3 440+

Wow, just 80 hourly pace, flopping for sure 😛

Around 130 iirc.

AM&tW opened very low for an MCU film, just like AM1. I set realistic bars so I’m disappointed about half the time. I still think this is going around 90, which would be quite solid considering everything, but if it goes below 85 that’s a little disappointing and there’s no way to get around that by trying to have artificially low expectations imo.

You seem confused. AM&tW was mid 70s, this isn’t even close to missing that. And if it did somehow, it would be atrocious. Let’s have some common sense please

Oh well. Should end up pretty respectable from there. If true Fri also disappoints we’re gonna dip below the line though 👀

Think DS can also go 150+. And gotg, of course. Re: winter soldier opening, the modern equivalent is like 135M, so this isn't coming particularly close -- but could without the pandemic or PA imo

I’m going to see this the same number of times in theaters as I would without D+ (2-3) and not pay for PA. Two more tickets from here is like $25 or something, it’s still cheaper and for a superior experience. If PA was 18 or something that would be a world of difference.

Yelena was fun, looking forward to her in Hawkeye.