Cooper Legion

Missing ¥55, guess it’s flop

I guess to be fair, the median WW gross starting with TA really is over 1B, and the median domestic gross is 390M. But solos paint a more restrained picture at 334/860. Widow would be a lot more likely to clear that without PA, imo. But the harping on “this hybrid release box office success story would have made even more with pure theatrical” is starting to get kind of funny.

I’ll put you down as OUT then

Yeah, F9 doing over 3x previews for true Fri made me bump up expectations for BW tru fri a bit. Thinking more like 1.7-1.8x rather than 1.5ish-1.6ish

I’d want to see previews at least 2.2x F9 to feel happy about hitting it. Not impossible but we’ll need some ramp up in the next 10 days since it can’t match the % increase of the final few.

You’ll get a nice number and you’ll like it

Currently I’d take high 160s F9 vs low 160s AQP2. Could go either way.

Deadline

So Sat was 2% down in the end. That Sun is too optimistic, they just wanted those “70M” headlines but they’ve gotta know they aren’t actually getting there 😆

Liking that slope 👀

Looking forward to next week, I see its our first Sun July 4 in 11 years. So that should be fun.

Using 74M, F9 is breaking the record by 56% and I need it broken by another 35% in two weeks.

Purely copying H&S: +15.5% Sat is 26.5 -23% Sun is 20.5 little under 77 I’d expect a weaker Sat bump and a slightly worse Sun drop, maybe +8% and -25% for 73

BOM is drunk

Well damn, guess those West Coast walkups delivered 👀

Oof, that will include the first few days of BW, right?

Summer vs Easter or MDW inflated openings for a lot of them. F9 also gets summer weekdays of course, legs should be at least 2.3 imo, probably better.

H&S A- F8 A F7 A F6 A F5 A

Obama’s Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors has spoken. Folks, go do your patriotic duty and watch the puppy/fashion prequel origin story.

29 has no base to it. An infrequent secondhand comScore source which I shall say no more about was targeting 17.5-18.5 a half hour after that deadline update. From Menor it clearly didn’t explode since then. Anything north of 26M opening day should be viewed as very lucky from here.

+ ∞% 2nd week PTA

After carefully considering this new data, I am INCREASING my personal est

Pretty early in the day for a bullish call from Deadline, doubt it fully pans out but does bode in the right direction at least.

https://deadline.com/2021/06/f9-speeds-to-7-1m-thursday-previews-best-to-date-during-pandemic-1234781577/

Eh, I mean, I certainly agree that a lot of what explains a particular movie’s performance right now is product driven factors that don’t generalize to the next release. But it’s probably also true that some of what’s behind a certain debut (especially new records) is a reflection of broader market conditions/recovery, and so it should be weakly correlated with what you expect for future movies (especially if they are also likely to be the new record). I would certainly feel better about my club if this had broken out to like 77 than if it comes in at 54 say.