Cooper Legion

I mean, literally 1% of them 😛 And I didn’t “lump it as good” I called it “great+.” I wish people would read the nuance in what I’m saying more than it seems like they have been from the responses.

With D+ I would be astounded

Touché. And yikes at anybody who did say that

Couldn’t have said it better, @pepsa.

Wow, that movie has a lower WW:budget ratio than I would have expected given the number of sequels that were made/pursued. I guess being 2/3rd from DOM helped.

Except nobody does. The “I should manage other people hopes on their behalf” brigade just loves to strawman.

Absolute nonsense. It was great, maybe great+. Getting sick of the presumption or insinuation that I don’t realize that. But in the three biggest OS markets reception had room to be better, and it shows when following weekly drops. Those 3 markets could be near 100M right there with a 2% higher egg, .2 higher Maoyan, .2 higher Eiga, none of which would be crazy for an animation sequel. DOM the reception metrics are also good-but-not-great, dunno about reaching say RO but passing BatB/TROS would have been likely with a couple % better. You can appreciate a 90th percentile outcome without trying to contort it into a 99th percentile one and spouting nonsense in the process.

Yeah, as I suspected it seems you’ve completely missed the mathematics behind what I’m asking about. Yes, of course, most people show up earlier to sequels. The multiplier from the first week is lower. The multiplier from the 2nd week is probably lower too, and even from the third week would make intuitive sense. There’s no reason why that dynamic would affect the ratio between the 7th week and the following gross, because the rush has already taken effect by then and reduced the denominator. Late legs are related to totally different factors than overall legs, and obviously I am aware that legs from OW are lower for sequels but that was not the claim of interest.

I think DC3 can overtake F8 and IW final PS. Sat opening means official OW will be greatly reduced, but curious how high the 3-day (SSM) will go.

Least meaningful line to see, but most enjoyable 😛

1st sentence is a huge straw man, and the 2nd paragraph is false and completely misses the point. But I’d like to move past this now.

Annnyway, it’s doing more than I thought it would DOM in mid-Dec , and OS way smashed my pre-release expectations. Thrilled with the Frozen love around the world, and that the sequel delivered in enjoyment for me personally. I just have a bit of a “always dreaming bigger” personality, but that doesn’t mean I don’t appreciate hugeness for hugeness. And I’m looking forward to Blart getting dethroned 🤣

Data? This would be a cool thing to learn, but I’m gonna need some numbers 😛

I’ve payed a lot of attention to the worldwide run and reception. Very confident 100-200M is the amount it would add in the hypothetical where it’s received, say, halfway between F1 and the real (good) reception. As a huge Frozen fan I would have loved that extra $$. Doesn’t mean I think 1.45 is “bad” or something the way some people seem to be trying to paint it 🤷‍♂️

I’m not reaching, the calendar inflating the raw multiplier is a simple fact that’s been anticipated and talked about plenty since release. Not trying to minimize the performance either. I’m very happy that it’ll probably spend a year+ in the top 10. I just think it would have been nifty if it had had reception more on the GREAT than good side and made it to 8th. Nothing wrong with that.

Is there any evidence that sequel vs first entry has an effect of like, 7th weekend multiplier? Doesn’t seem to be any theoretical reason why it would, but if so then I’ll recalibrate my assessment slightly.

Raw multi is misleading given the calendar config imo. 10-day was a huge multi of OW thanks to Thanksgiving, and several strong weekends once winter break kicked in. Outside of holidays has held kind of poorly.

I wouldn’t say “suck” and “bad songs,” but the 1.45B finish owes a lot to F1’s goodwill. Reception and legs have been nothing special. If F2 was great would have been 1.6+

They’ve been bad compared to the usual post-holiday legs of November Disney animation. Great total, but last two weekends were disappointing and odds are the next couple follow.

Very disappointing sing-along Friday for Frozen. No appreciable boost whatsoever. It’s really been dropping hard since the holidays ended.

Nah, I was just spitballing from the strong sales that folks are seeing.

6.4+18+23+15+10.6=73

Yep, 2016 was 430M worse in the top 5, but had great middle strength and lead by almost 700M for the rest of movies. 2020 will lag by a lot more than that in the top 5 and I don’t really see the lower movies being particularly strong. I mean, maybe everything pleasantly overperforms, but in the average case...

You can't fudge 10M, and some Disney help would likely already have involved in hitting 490 in the first place.

The thing about 200-300M movies is... they're worth half of a 400-600 movie 😛