Cooper Legion

Thinking at least a 5% gross dip, given a pretty modest ATP growth would be first year below 1.2B admits since 1992. Could go under 1992, but I think it can at least beat 1991. Not in admits per capita of course, that'll be the lowest since 1980 easily, probably ever.

Lol, typical that I have to use 2018 $ since 2019 isn’t available yet, and 2019 ATP drops an hour later: https://deadline.com/2020/01/movie-ticket-sales-2019-decline-domestic-box-office-1202834469/ rose by just .5%, 9.11 to 9.16, quite low by historical standards. Very curious how 2020 ATP will go.

DOM is too high, as Misafeco said. I would go 480-490 but the upper end is quite optimistic 😛 The OS territories I can comment on (checked about 10) all looked good.

Also Adjusted seems to be (2018 $): Jan 101 Doggos 910M Feb Black Panther 694M Mar Sound of Music 1.3B Apr Endgame 867M May Star Wars 1.62B Jun E.T. 1.29B Jul Forrest Gump 715M Aug Mary Poppins 711M Sep Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid 642M Oct 10 Commandments 1.2B Nov Ben-Hur 890M Dec GwtW 1.84B With the caveat that several of those movies have the bulk of their gross from runs the began in other months entirely. So you could also try to look at the biggest adjusted single run per month, but that seemed a hassle. Anyway I was a bit surprised to find that 2 of them are also the unadjusted monthly winner, 0 would have been a very plausible result.

Hmm, only 4/12 months, shameful. At least April and Feb should be safe for a long while. Those are all pretty solid defending champions tbh, I don’t see much to challenge any of them coming up. BP2 would need a sick DOM hold, if it even stays in May, obviously 0 chance in April. I guess the lowest months aside from Jan are: Aug 333M Sep 327M Oct 334+Oscar boost Nov 485ish The MCU keeps taking swings in Nov, but F2 numbers are a big ask for those. If Oct 2022 is Gotg3 or CM2 that’d do the trick, AM3 or Blade not so much.

🤔

BB3 is just doing what keyser saw like 16 hours ago 👍

1) Eternals Black Widow Raya Jungle Cruise Mulan Lovebirds The Gentlemen 355 Tenet 10)Dune

Looks like 21B had a really strong Philly performance, I think that will prove a strong comp in terms of BB’s national figure. Would still bode an excellent weekend of course.

You guys all know that that synopsis is 100% made up BS, right? It’s from IMDB, which anyone can edit with no source, and there are never real synopses 16 months before release...

The Time Stone that powered the Stark Gauntlet was returned to another timeline. The main timeline's Time Stone was reduced to atoms by Thanos. The main timeline has 0/6 intact stones in it.

Lot of movies up from Mon. In particular a great Wed for LW, maybe the beginnings of Oscar benefit.

Should drop out of the top 5 today (day 9), displaced by Portrait of a Lady on Fire.

That’s overly conservative. No MCU movie since The Avengers in 2012 has missed the WW top 140, which gives 650M. Given the timelines involved it would be surprising to ever see another one below 700M — even Ant-man 3. Edit: DOM post-TA worst is AM1 202nd=205M OS AM2 135th=427M OW AM1 128th=69M Ant-man franchise is such a bummer. Hope AM3 gets some of that IM3/CA3 threequel boost.

32x the tickets today for BB3, lmao. I mean, regional skew, but still

I am also curious if there was an actual decision reached, or if we just reverted back to the older (and imo slightly worse) way of doing things out of habit. @grim22, @DeeCee, @Eric Dolittle ?

Moana’s post-MLK multiplier was strengthened by the sing-along coming two weeks after. F2 is getting the sing-along on MLK, so it should leg worse from there but I think the 4-day alone will be close to 6.4

This is quite unlikely.

Assume you mean the 3-day here? 4-day would be delicious for the drama though.

Just staying flat for the 4-day would be a bummer

It’s a Gotti reference dude. It means the film is bad.

Critics put out the hit

Nope Animated is usually in line with Jumanji rather than markedly worse. Will hope for 80 for F2

A bit difficult to compare initial YT metrics with the trailer given the different times of day, but: Time ; views ; likes 1 hour; 227k; 32k 2 hour; 321k; 45k 3 hour; 384k; 54k 4 hour; 427k; 60k 5 hour; 464k; 65k Guessing final likes in 200s, beating CM slightly. Seems like it’s a lot more impressive on Twitter.

I like Natasha and I’m happy to get a send off movie for her. But I also want films to drive forward the future, and on that front I’m excited about Yelena, who I think we’ll be seeing a lot more of in the 20s.