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Cooper Legion

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    Weekend Thread: Weekend estimates pg 38...BP 41.14....WIT 33.31

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Sliver Legion

    BP dropped 44.7% 2nd weekend, and 40.6% 3rd. If it can come in with 42.1 here that would be a 36.5% drop, which is a perfect linear progression in terms of percentage drops. Some simple extrapolation would then give a 32.4% drop for next weekend (28.46), unfortunately falling below Frozen to be only the 4th best 5th weekend ever.         

     

    A little more simple extrapolation reveals that BP would drop only 3.7% in its 12th weekend and then see an increase of .4% in its 13th before having a whopping 29.1% weekend to weekend increase for its 20th weekend;)

     

     

    China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Sliver Legion

    Marvel cannot be anything but crazy thrilled with Black Panther’s performance overall. However, they’re playing the long game, and China is a big market — they’d probably rather have a $70M total and a 8.8 Maoyan than a 140 total and a 7.8 Maoyan, because feelings toward the character will affect BP2, BP3, at least 4 avengers films probably and likely even some other character’s solo movies in which he appears.     

     

    That said, a single movie’s reception doesn’t determine how people feel about the character forever. If the complaints are mostly about issues specific to this movie’s plot/structure/action balance rather than the characters, then it’s certainly possible future movie’s could end up more liked just by regression to the mean.

    • Like 3

    China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    120 is still a lot better than almost anyone was expecting a month ago and all MCU first entries iirc.      This is more concerning with regard to possible reception of BP2 in my opinion, but that can also be affected by IW and A4.     

     

    Ant-Man&the Wasp would only need a pretty modest increase from the well received first part 3 years ago to beat BP in China then, which would be really amusing when you look at the ratio between number six for those 2 domestically.

    Weekend Thread | Estimates per BOM ~ BP 65.7M, RS 17M, DW 13M, GN 10.7M, PR 10M, ANL 5.65M, J:WTTJ 4.5M, FSF 3.3M, TGS 2.68M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

    SW9 could do it if it's another crowdpleaser like TFA. Only needs a 13% increase from TLJ, and the third film in SW trilogies have traditionally increased from the second film. Avatar 2 is another film that could pass $700 million if its visuals are really as groundbreaking as Cameron is hinting at. Despite being the culmination of everything in the MCU, Avengers 4 will probably be too frontloaded to make it even with a record-breaking OW. 

    Those immediately came to mind as the two best candidates, but I wouldn’t personally give either of them 50% or better chances right now.

    Weekend Thread | Estimates per BOM ~ BP 65.7M, RS 17M, DW 13M, GN 10.7M, PR 10M, ANL 5.65M, J:WTTJ 4.5M, FSF 3.3M, TGS 2.68M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

    Well, that's the numerator.   :bravo:

     

    But to check what I asked we'd also need the denominator. 

    BOM has 170 movies opening between 40 and 60, and 1796 opening between 55 and 10 (don’t list below 10).   So depending on which range of openings you want and whether you count getting to 400 on a rerelease, either 1/170, 5/170, 1/1796, or 5/1796 (not counting Jumanji for any of those, since it has not yet crossed 400).

    • Like 1

    Weekend Thread | Estimates per BOM ~ BP 65.7M, RS 17M, DW 13M, GN 10.7M, PR 10M, ANL 5.65M, J:WTTJ 4.5M, FSF 3.3M, TGS 2.68M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Sliver Legion

    8 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

    4

     

    There's only 29 movies over $400m at the moment, so it wasn't hard to check.

    This is in Jurassic Park, The Lion King, Titanic, and ... ?   

     

    E.T and Star Wars both get there in rereleases. Is it those three in addition to Jumanji, or did I just miss one.

     

    Edit: Jurassic Park and The Lion Kind also get there in the rereleases, actually. I have 5 total and only Titanic in original release.

    • Like 3

    Weekend Thread | Estimates per BOM ~ BP 65.7M, RS 17M, DW 13M, GN 10.7M, PR 10M, ANL 5.65M, J:WTTJ 4.5M, FSF 3.3M, TGS 2.68M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Sliver Legion

    4 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

    I don't know why people are talking about BP barely passing Avengers, BP is currently over by 34mil slightly better holds.

    BP won’t get any summer benefit later in its run the way Avengers did. It should remain ahead for the whole run, but it’s still possible for the lead to narrow a bit rather than widening. That said, I think a lot of people are expecting it to beat Avengers by at least 34 in the end.

    • Like 1

    Weekend Actuals (Page 80) | Black Panther 111.7M | Game Night 17M | Peter Rabbit 12.8M | Annihilation 11.1M | Fifty Shades Freed 7.1M | Jumanji 5.7M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Sliver Legion

    5 minutes ago, a2knet said:

    113 weekend, 395 cume.

    if it addds 2x the weekend more,

    395 + 113*2 = 621, pessimistic case

     

    dp added 2.23x the weekend more. gives 655

     

    so far it has trended much better than dp. bp's current multiplier is 1.96x while dp's 10-day multiplier 1.79x.

    2.5x seems realistic and gives 677.5.

     

    #3 behind tfa and avatar is a great target atm. it's getting #5 at least.

     

    The cume is 405, so add 10 to everything.

    • Thanks 1
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