Cooper Legion
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Posts posted by Cooper Legion
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Black Panther median Tuesday increase on weeks without a holiday monday is 28.8, which would give 2.34 today, so I’m looking at above 2.35 or so as better than expected and below 2.3 as worse than expected.
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58 minutes ago, Jandrew said:
Does Panther have enough gas in the tank to hit $700M? Seems like it's on the fringe.
690 is very doable, that last 10M is probably a bridge too far. Off a 10M weekend it would need a 6x 7th weekend multiplier, which is a huge ask. Off a 12M weekend it would only need a 5x multiplier, which is a lot more possible. I think it’ll be around 11M, need a 5.5 multiplier off that weekend, and miss.
I guess we we could have a situation where it’s going to make like 698 “naturally” and Disney just leaves it in theaters forever and uses some IW double features to try to drag it over, but they don’t seem to be too concerned about that sort of thing.
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13 minutes ago, sfran43 said:
@WrathOfHan using Monday numbers as a guideline, if you were to estimate BP weekday numbers + the upcoming weekend, do you think BP will make enough to topple JW final gross by Sunday?🤔
Not Wrath of Han, but no, it won’t. Best Tuesday increase it’s had (+32%) gets it a 2.4 Tues, then best Wednesday drop (-25%) a 1.8 W, then best Thursday increase (8%) a slightly under 2 Thursday for a bit under 6.2 from the remaining weekdays and a Thurs total of about 639.3. Then it would need a 13M weekend (spectacular 24% drop) to pass JW.
More realistically we should be at 639 after Thursday, 11-12 weekend gets to 650-651, pass JW next Tuesday or Wednesday.
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BP starting to pull ahead of TDK adjusted in the dailies more decisively now. Hard to see it below 680 for me.
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10 hours ago, dudalb said:
I don't see a bright future for the Gnome Universe....
Just give it to Feige and wait a decade.
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With 17.1M, BP has the 4th best 6th weekend ever, and could drop 30% and still remain in the top 5 weekends. It couldn’t afford to drop much more than that though, with the current 5th best 7th weekend being The Blind Side at 11.91.
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9 days into IW presales. 32 days to go.
It’s in third place.
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6 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:
This has been the worst March in years. Not a single movie will cross $100M except RP1.
At least BP is contributing over $200M to March.
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Wow, just getting sales by the 1000 and refreshing every half hour or so could be a big improvement to our Pulse data extraction.
In fact, if we’re careful about not double counting tickets from overlapping windows, it should be possible to refresh more frequently and just have access to basically every ticket sold on fandango, right? Or are there sales that don’t appear on pulse?
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12 minutes ago, Porthos said:
IW Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report T-38 days and counting
Sellouts
Showings
Seats left
Total Seats
Perct Sold
TOTALS
1
107
4899
10660
54.04%
Showings Added: 1
Total Seats Added: 160
Total Seats Sold: 99
At this rate the number of empty seats will have grown by over 2000 by OW, doesn’t look good
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3 hours ago, YLF said:
How is it crumbling? it had a good hold and a sub-40% decline from the weekend before... it is the 2nd fastest to 600M. Am I missing something?
Just meming about how it came in below expectations this weekend. Making an easy 650+ is obviously not actually crumbling.
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37 minutes ago, Porthos said:
Tell you what. For now, just the seat total as an update. Everything else, still once a week.
T-39 Days and counting:
Sellouts
Showings
Seats left
Total Seats
Perct Sold
TOTALS
1
106
4838
10500
53.92%
Yay, more numbers.
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Man , with BP crumbling like this it will barely make top 3 DOM all time.
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So how much can we get out of New Zealand with Black Panther 2 directed by Taika Waititi? Eh, eh?
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7 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:
it was possible I don't remember the last non-franchise/non-horror film targeted at teens that had solid marketing campaign behind it
given they are not catered to anymore, they are conditioned to wait for streaming
I feel like they are also the demographic most adept at finding online versions of a movie before official streaming begins.
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3 minutes ago, lilmac said:
5 wks at #1?! What is happening right now?!
C U L T U R A L P H E N O M E N O N
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2 minutes ago, KP1025 said:
Black Panther would need to drop pretty hard to finish with just $650 million domestic. Only needs 2.47x multiplier off this weekend to hit that mark.
Exactly. 700 is a much more realistic number than 650 with the weekend they’re projecting.
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Forecasted for 3rd best 5th weekend then, but fingers crossed on edging out Titanic’s 30.01.
Deadline’s update also says: “that many ultimately believe will be an end game of $650M stateside, $1.25 billion worldwide”
Which seems like a total joke lowball to me off of a 29 Mil weekend — 1.3 is more likely than not.
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1 hour ago, a2knet said:
None I would think. BP and WIT could add around 200 more combined. Why 270 more...studio record?
To get Disney to 1B before IW, presumably. Instead they’ll have to settle for making it on opening Fri or Sat, which will still beat the previous record for fastest to 1B by about 10 days (and make the only times it has been done in under 150 days Disney 2016, Disney 2017, and Disney 2018).
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4 hours ago, Ledmonkey96 said:
So what are the chances Disney eeks out another 270mil before Infinity War?
Zilch. They’d be lucky to get another 60 from Wrinkle and 140 from Panther, which is not even close. Even a crazy optimistic 80 from Wrinkle and 180 from Panther (over 750 finish, lol) still falls short.
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Really sad to see Black Panther C R U M B L I N G like this on Sun. I’ll revise my estimate down to 675.
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So they’re projecting a 13.1 Sunday — -29.6%. That is almost exactly between the last two Sun drops.
In order to beat TFA’s 4th weekend it would need a 13.8 Sun (-25.8%). That’ very close to its 2nd weekend Sun drop, so definitely still within reach.
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20 would be absolutely incredible.
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Okay, a post with some more serious numbers. If BP gets a 42 weekend to get a 563 total to date, then here’s about how it would do with the 4th weekend multipliers of some various movies (some better comps than others):
GotG2 675
TFA 687
TA 689
BATB 692
DP 693
The Jungle Book 693
JW 701
TDK 710
WW 722
JUM2 731
Zootopia 739
SM:H 740
That was all mental math, so don’t @ me if some of them are like +/- 2M, but basically top 3 DOM is looking *very* good.
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Tuesday Thread: Tomb Raider - $1.52m, Game Night - $585k
in Numbers and Data
Posted
BOOM, great Tuesday number. Over 35% increase is the best Tuesday increase of its run so far, and down a mere 13% week to week.