Cooper Legion
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Posts posted by Cooper Legion
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Just now, Deep Wang said:
A number of films all within $62-63.5m means that is a hard cap on true Friday.
Wouldn’t it be more meaningful to look at adjusted figures or admissions here? There’s no reason why the nominal value of a true Friday would have any kind of cap.
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Most interesting number this week always one of the last that we get
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8 minutes ago, DeeCee said:
So day 2 is 100%+ over The Avengers day 2.
Easy triple-digit-millions DOM Sat is C O N F I R M E D
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Barely above Peter Rabbit, what a flop
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1 hour ago, Thematrixfilm said:
Avengers 1 previews - 18.7m
Avengers 2 previews - 27.6m (+48%)
Avengers 3 previews - (+48%) = 40.74m
That’s just science. Really looking forward to those 60.3M previews for A4 (actually this is not that insane, if it acts sort of like DH2).
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1 hour ago, Proxima Olive said:
Wed final: 85,313 (TA1 -67741; TA2 - 71961)
Thursday presales 35660
bigger drop than CA3 which also opened on a Wednesday
What does the top 5 OD admissions look like, for context?
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4 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:
ROTJ adjusted PTA gets it to $299.3M.
Enter, stage left: Puerto Rico
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1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:
The adjusted PTA gets it to 283M
Only needs a 6% increase over adjusted PTA? Basically locked
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Are updates to that number over? Fricking 65 ticket difference is insane.
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17 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:
Lol at the conservative prediction being 210+ or the third largest opener ever.
3rd largest ever and the C R U M B L I N G gifs will flow.
Even though it would be good for a top 5 adjusted OW as well.
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3 hours ago, feasby007 said:
I think there is definitely something going on with IW encouraging BP sales, this is a bit more than to be expected...
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I’m IN your club in spirit, @MovieMan89. Now we can fail together
(More seriously, I would be in for a top 5 club, if clubs for 11th weekends were allowed)
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7 minutes ago, sfran43 said:
How soft/hard it'll drop next weekend will depend on how many screens it loses!
Yeah, definitely a hugely important variable. I know Cinderella lost 30% of its theaters on AoU weekend but dropped 1% partially off of drive-in double features, but I think between the weather and the week earlier IW might have fewer drive-ins. On the other hand, there’s a lot more reason to see Black Panther alongside IW than Cinderella alongside Ultron — if even .5% of people seeing IW over the weekend decided to go to a Panther showing right before it would have a humongous impact.
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Not totally impossible for BP to be around 4M next weekend and slightly edge out Blockers, RPO, ToD, ST2 for top 5. Not what I would predict, but the drops involved aren’t totally unreasonable.
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6 minutes ago, sfran43 said:
THIS MOVIE...
The 4.6 estimate was kind of farcical, but this is .03 higher than even my estimate. Very nice weekend drop.
Might actually edge out Fatal Attraction now to be in the top 25 of 10th weekends.
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1 hour ago, Durden said:
"Depending on the release size of the film these numbers can go as high as ₹40 crore Friday and ₹125 crore weekend. The previous weekend record for Hollywood film is just above ₹55 crore, and Avengers are looking to double that number. Crazy."
http://www.cinetrak.in/news_details.html?id=5add71c323d72957d5f8f453
Am I converting correctly that the top end in this quote is $18.8M USD? It would already be the 6th highest Hollywood movie after opening Sunday in that case?
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So this will be near 120% of Ultron’s presales tickets? Looks like the exchange rate is very close to late April 2015. What’s the possibility of a slightly leggier run and passing 100M USD?
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Actuals are very likely to be above the estimates, at least domestically, though that's only worth another couple thousand. If it needs 17.5 more for DH2 then it seems very in reach to me. Something like 2.5 OS and 15M DOM is only a 4x multiplier from this weekend, which is generally very doable for movies with late legs like Panther.
Ultimately a lot still rides on the reaction to IW domestically. -
51 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:
Hey everyone.... I was informed by @baumer of the following.....
Since he is a long time mod, he must be right on something like this. It made me realize that I can get everything I need from the board by simply lurking and posting anything isn't really useful and is a joke.
It has been great posting here and I will PM a few here some info from time to time, but I think I have provided the board with enough for now. Make sure you all thank Baumer for helping me see this.
More like bummer, am I right?
I have appreciated your opinions in addition to your raw numbers, even when I did not fully agree with them. I think it’s safe to say that that quote represents a minority opinion, but I hope that whatever way you interact with the forums moving forward works well for you.
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Panther had the 26th best 9th weekend, and amusingly 4.9M (same Sat and Sun % as last weekend) would get it the 26th best 10th as well.
Movies this century with approximately similar 10th weekend numbers are Lincoln (5x multi off the weekend, complicated by 10th of wide release being a 4-day), The Blind Side (over 6x multi off the weekend), and Jumanji (~4x multi off the weekend). BP would need a 4.88 or so, so it could just barely get there if people did a lot of DIY double features, or fall bout a half dozen short if the theater losses are too great to overcome.
Right now I’d guess quite close to 696.9
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4 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:
Its possible. I checked all the top grossing movies and only Avatar and Titanic seems to have more days than 66. So yeah its gonna be top 3
Dug a little deeper, Frozen and ET also made it (honestly I was quite surprised to see daily data for ET at all). Think Panther might be 5th though.
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1 hour ago, sfran43 said:
+10% from Wednesday and down only 11% from last Thursday. Between the lack of strong new releases and this being the last weekend before IW I wonder if we could see a 4.5M weekend or better.
Also this makes it look look like BP will spend 66 days before falling below 500k, wonder if that makes top 3.
Edit: Nope, looks like that is behind Frozen (73 days), ET (89 days), Avatar (94), and Titanic (a wholly unreasonable 122 days spent closer to 1M than to 0).
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1 hour ago, POTUS said:
damn, 21 days out. will be interesting to track. At 2500 and going up quickly. Lets see a couple days after 10k are listed.
I doubt it beats FF8's OW. Its 22m longer at 2h40m. Thats 1 less show per day per screen.
Only 11 minutes longer, at 2:29.
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25 minutes ago, Barnack said:
Yes fandango website give you those info for every sale:
Show_datetime
State of the movie theater
the city
A bunch of info for every sales,
The hard part is to acquire and save all of them on a platform that is always running.
Of those 267 sales I was talking about, starting Thursday the 26:
2018-04-26: 76 (28.46%)
2018-04-27: 78 (29.2%)
2018-04-28: 72 (26.97%)
2018-04-29: 22 (0.0823%)
and 19 in total post opening weekend (I had missed one I guess), I imagine the very first sales were more for the opening night and that they become more spreadout over time and sell outs occurs (and that will maybe re-become true that day)
Alright, excellent. I found some other sources that suggest the total presales tend to be near 40% Thursday, so I think you’re exactly correct that the earlier wave was more Thursday heavy and the intermediate drip of this week is more evenly spread out in comparison.
Also, I suspect you want 8.23% or .0823, not .0823%
Wednesday's Numbers AQP: 1.45M - IFP: 1.27M - Rampage: 1.15M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Dang, dropped from Wednesday
With Tuesday +8% from last week and Wednesday +21% from last week, I expect Thursday to be at least +30% from last week — hardcore fans with a Thursday preview IW showing are the most likely to do a DIY double showing with a 2.5 Hour earlier Black Panther.