Cooper Legion
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Everything posted by Cooper Legion
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Huh? -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
People couldn't afford to buy tickets after bankrupting themselves on actblue, SAD -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Doesn’t necessarily look like there was any impact to me, but it’s extra hard to tell since it’s unclear how much we should be coming down from final trailer/coming into final week anyway 🤷♂️ -
INSIDE OUT II | 958.1M overseas | 1596.0M worldwide
Cooper Legion replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
Unfortunately IW is just below 1b os-c as the correct China value is 376m -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
FWIW I would guess ~20k for now t-5 to final growth: DS2 +56% L&T +89% BP2 +76.5% gotg3 +106% bats +108% atsv +172% (btw @Porthos won’t grow enough to hit the t-5 comp or anything, but I think this should be a fine add to the comp block for the final stretch) 100-115 seems realistic here depending on how things play out -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Mostly what I meant by that was just that the comps were underindexing against other regions, regardless of the comp movie choice. Like certainly it looked better in Sacto vs Gotg than vs ds2 or L&T. But the gotg3 comp in Sacto has been low vs most other samples gotg3 comp, the L&T comp has been low vw other samples L&T comps, etc etc. So that’s a pretty genuine regional trend not just colored by paying more/less attention to right/wrong movies. Which is not, like, a problem per se. Different shape of sales all gets straightened out by the end. Mostly the few times I emphasized that was just as a warning for those reading the threads who are less in the weeds of this stuff that the overall picture was not as bad as they might think looking at Sacto straight comps at the time -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
If you want a tighter range just choose a different shade 🥱 -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Fwiw I agree that, particularly post L&T, ps patterns for MCU are a bit different — more hesitancy in quality, less frontloading (though still more than anything but like SW of course). It’s logical that if there’s a national dynamic to that effect it will be stronger in some markets/weaker in others. Getting a little into meaningless linguistic nitty-gritty but I would personally regard that more as an explanation of why Sacto was underindexing for so long vs the comp set than that not being the case -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
As has been said by all sorts of trackers already, excellent past two days. May be final trailer bump, may be start of very hot closing week if reception holds up T-5 Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix Thursday Preview Gross Range $32.00 $33.00 $34.00 $35.00 $36.00 $37.00 $38.00 $39.00 $40.00 Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM) 4.93 $157.76 $162.69 $167.62 $172.55 $177.48 $182.41 $187.34 $192.27 $197.20 5 $160.00 $165.00 $170.00 $175.00 $180.00 $185.00 $190.00 $195.00 $200.00 5.07 $162.24 $167.31 $172.38 $177.45 $182.52 $187.59 $192.66 $197.73 $202.80 5.14 $164.48 $169.62 $174.76 $179.90 $185.04 $190.18 $195.32 $200.46 $205.60 5.21 $166.72 $171.93 $177.14 $182.35 $187.56 $192.77 $197.98 $203.19 $208.40 5.28 $168.96 $174.24 $179.52 $184.80 $190.08 $195.36 $200.64 $205.92 $211.20 5.35 $171.20 $176.55 $181.90 $187.25 $192.60 $197.95 $203.30 $208.65 $214.00 5.42 $173.44 $178.86 $184.28 $189.70 $195.12 $200.54 $205.96 $211.38 $216.80 5.49 $175.68 $181.17 $186.66 $192.15 $197.64 $203.13 $208.62 $214.11 $219.60 -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Doesn’t count in Sacto since have been expecting for months that dark magic would force it to rise sharply at the end to cover the underindexing gap 😛 -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
650 for strange, dp should have higher atp so might be able to beat in gross even if not tix -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Very likely. Should be in 600s -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Waiting on Sacto for grid update but thinking over 35 for first time in run (midpoint has been 35.0 in the past so not like a huge change or anything, just bumping up a bit) -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Wick is right in line with the rest in terms of size:comp fit. Sacto starting to right size a little bit, though I don’t think the size adj comp will move past 30 until midweek (currently 28.5, basically same as t-14). -
Maybe just a 33% drop for IO2 today… 330k-ish wknd? Probably settling down into 8.5-9 at this point
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
FWIW, CM was at 4494 T-8 before totaling 10553, so +135% growth or so. TROS was at 15099 before totaling 19541 — mere +30%. The adj CM comp provided suggest that DP3 is currently 7402 at same sources, which would suggest that it would be a bit higher for the TROS comp, maybe 7750ish giving ~24M adj comp. Final vs T-8 growth for: DS2 — +75% THOR — +114% BP2 — +100% GOTG3 — +144% accounting for stuff like seasonality, reception, reaction timing etc a *crude* guess might be for DPW to grow 120%ish for a finish ~ 18300 (17100 vs TROS, 16300 vs CM). If that were to come to pass final comps (atp adjusted for the 2019 but still take with a lot of uncertainty): CM 37.5 TROS 41 DS2 31 L&T 31 BP2 30.5 Bats 33.5 -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
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brazil Brazil Box Office Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Fullbuster's topic in International Box Office
Got a good shot at USD record which is just absurd -
INSIDE OUT II | 958.1M overseas | 1596.0M worldwide
Cooper Legion replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
Wknd 5 est 777.5, Portugal ~1.8, so 90M holdover wk. Actuals guess 92M (-34%). Keep dropping 33%ish, add 2x or 184M for 963+portugal rest+final markets. Easy billie maybe 1.025 when all said and done, though maybe Olympics hurt a bit -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Not 100% guarantee, would be pretty likely. IM likely low 5s but could flex around to mid 5s or high 4s depending on various factors -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cooper Legion replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Uhhh…. Not even close to close? -
INSIDE OUT II | 958.1M overseas | 1596.0M worldwide
Cooper Legion replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
I wouldn’t say 0 chance in Japan, sometimes freak breakouts happen. But a freak breakout is exactly what would be needed and there are only a few of those per decade so ahh… definitely don’t hold your breath, lol. Probably passing 100M in Mexico unfortunately which will kill that bit of trivia. Locked to beat Barbie DOM (close), WW (not that close) and OS (not at all close).