Joyous Legion
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Posts posted by Joyous Legion
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Gotta beat KFP by sun or flop 😛
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First time ever seeing this thread. Those folks in 2011-2013 didn’t know how good they had it…
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On 5/22/2024 at 10:40 AM, Legion Again said:
Alright, fine then
T-65
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix
Thursday Preview Gross Range
$28.00
$29.50
$31.00
$32.50
$34.00
$35.50
$37.00
$38.50
$40.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
4.875
$136.50
$143.81
$151.13
$158.44
$165.75
$173.06
$180.38
$187.69
$195.00
4.95
$138.60
$146.03
$153.45
$160.88
$168.30
$175.73
$183.15
$190.58
$198.00
5.025
$140.70
$148.24
$155.78
$163.31
$170.85
$178.39
$185.93
$193.46
$201.00
5.1
$142.80
$150.45
$158.10
$165.75
$173.40
$181.05
$188.70
$196.35
$204.00
5.175
$144.90
$152.66
$160.43
$168.19
$175.95
$183.71
$191.48
$199.24
$207.00
5.25
$147.00
$154.88
$162.75
$170.63
$178.50
$186.38
$194.25
$202.13
$210.00
5.325
$149.10
$157.09
$165.08
$173.06
$181.05
$189.04
$197.03
$205.01
$213.00
5.4
$151.20
$159.30
$167.40
$175.50
$183.60
$191.70
$199.80
$207.90
$216.00
5.475
$153.30
$161.51
$169.73
$177.94
$186.15
$194.36
$202.58
$210.79
$219.00
I think it will probably hit at least the medium green region but leaving very wide uncertainty for now to respect being t-65
Made a minor update in my private sheet, might as well share I guess. Not much changed, still far out, still high uncertainty
T-46
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix
Thursday Preview Gross Range
$30.00
$31.25
$32.50
$33.75
$35.00
$36.25
$37.50
$38.75
$40.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
4.825
$144.75
$150.78
$156.81
$162.84
$168.88
$174.91
$180.94
$186.97
$193.00
4.9
$147.00
$153.13
$159.25
$165.38
$171.50
$177.63
$183.75
$189.88
$196.00
4.975
$149.25
$155.47
$161.69
$167.91
$174.13
$180.34
$186.56
$192.78
$199.00
5.05
$151.50
$157.81
$164.13
$170.44
$176.75
$183.06
$189.38
$195.69
$202.00
5.125
$153.75
$160.16
$166.56
$172.97
$179.38
$185.78
$192.19
$198.59
$205.00
5.2
$156.00
$162.50
$169.00
$175.50
$182.00
$188.50
$195.00
$201.50
$208.00
5.275
$158.25
$164.84
$171.44
$178.03
$184.63
$191.22
$197.81
$204.41
$211.00
5.35
$160.50
$167.19
$173.88
$180.56
$187.25
$193.94
$200.63
$207.31
$214.00
5.425
$162.75
$169.53
$176.31
$183.09
$189.88
$196.66
$203.44
$210.22
$217.00
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1 hour ago, JimmyB said:
It's not just May its the year. The few hits in summer arent enough, that been the problem all year. June will finish 30-35% behind June last year. Summer box office is trending to finish under 3 billion.
It’s been dire overall since last Aug. Only one movie clearly past 20M tickets since Barbenheimer (Wonka right on the line tbf) and even that only got to ~25M. It’s very understandable why people are gloomy with that backdrop.
June and July should finally have some big hits though so that’ll be nice while it lasts
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18 minutes ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:
Good for who though?
Large majority of people tbh. Excellent employment levels, wages outpacing inflation particularly for lower income levels. Strong real consumption growth, real gdp growth, productivity, etc.
Biggest macro problem right now is anti-housing regulations stifling construction leading to high home prices. That +high interest rates combine for a particular issue for those looking to buy new homes though interest rates will be coming down soon
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29 minutes ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:
People are in denial about the state of the economy.
Exactly — people think it’s bad but it’s actually extremely good right now
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On 6/7/2024 at 10:06 AM, Legion Again said:
To bring things back to weekend prognostication a bit I think there is something to sports impacting the preview walk ups a bit given demos and I am still thinking mid high 50s possible esp with what looks like very solid reception. Hope to wake up to s nice true Fri outlook
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49.99: year of cinema collapse continues
50.01: Teflon Will saves BO for all time
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That schedule is leaning hard on thunderbolts and MI, either of which could do pretty solid but no sure thing. Maybe Ballerina does pretty nice too but I’m not sure how far the wickverse will go without , you know, wick.
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To bring things back to weekend prognostication a bit I think there is something to sports impacting the preview walk ups a bit given demos and I am still thinking mid high 50s possible esp with what looks like very solid reception. Hope to wake up to s nice true Fri outlook
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5 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:
It’s…not personal? And I’m not picking a fight? I’m just arguing with Legion about something. And it hasn’t gotten hostile IMO. Spirited? Sure. But we’re just arguing over different viewpoints, which is what forums are all about. Nobody is insulting one another, so things are fine.
But you know? It’s clear neither party will agree, so I’ll end it here. I have my feelings, others have their own. It’s all good.
We aren’t really arguing about different “viewpoints” or “feelings” though. The question of “does Charlie consistently overestimate in initial preview tweets, or are errors about 50/50” is a pretty cold hard numerical objective matter and the answer is about 50/50. That’s not some opinion of mine it’s just the record of reality. You can check it. Anyone who’s curious can check it. It’s just that you didn’t do so, which is mostly what annoyed me about the whole thing
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7 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:
I mean I specifically said in the post you quoted that it doesn’t happen all the time. I know for Fall Guy and Bad Boys that it was accurate or even under predicted. But again, it shows how inconsistent he is and how wonky his projections are, and being right sometimes doesn’t invalidate his overestimating on other times. At the very least, I think it’s fair to say he is far from perfect with this stuff and he isn’t above criticism. Sorry.
Sorry but this response really doesn’t show much except that you don’t really understand how to judge whether predictions are good or not. Obviously it’s not 0% error every time, but modest errors balanced in direction is pretty much gold standard. He isn’t “above criticism” but your criticism involved some factual claims that just weren’t and that deserves some pushback as well
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Bad boys: tweeted 5.75, reported 5.875
Fall guy: 3M, 3.15M
GxK: 9.5M, 10M
GBFE: 4.5, 4.7
KFP: 3.5, 3.8
Dune: 11, 12
Sometimes over, sometimes under. If you want to make claims about a consistent direction of error, why not check if it’s true first?
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28 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:
Two weeks ago, Charlie's projections were 2.5M for Garfield and 4M for Furiosa. It went 1.9M and. 3.5M. Big drops. Charlie said 7M for Kingdom of the Apes, then it went lower at 6.6M. Challengers he had at 2.5M, then the actual was 1.9M. Civil War he had at 3.5M previews, and it was 2.9M.
Like...yeah. He does overestimate previews. And in some cases, like Furiosa or Challengers, that's a pretty significant amount. Is it every single time? Of course not. But this has been a pretty consistent pattern of Charlie's. And I think it's fair to call it out when it happens this many times in the span of a few weeks. I'm clearly outnumbered in people thinking it should still be posted. But Charlie needs to figure out how to fix up his projections when he tweets this stuff out. Because this information isn't helpful. If anything, it makes things way worse for all parties.
No, it’s absolutely not a consistent pattern. You just decided to list one half without paying attention to all the ones recently where it came in over his number
there is nothing to “fix” here except your biased impression 🤷♂️
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No idea how this myth of “ @charlie Jatinder overestimates previews” got started but if you just look at the nums it is pretty clearly not true. Sometimes bit more sometimes bit less, pretty close to 50/50 ratio in direction and small in magnitude, exactly what you’d want out of highest possible quality est
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54 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:
Excellent for Boys.
Oh God, just realized $50M OW is the new $100M OW. That's how bad it has gotten.
50M is the new 35M
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On 4/14/2024 at 6:58 PM, Porthos said:On 4/15/2024 at 12:48 PM, Noctis said:
What? How does a film that opened to $96m in 2019 adjust to near $148m today? That's slightly over 50%! No way. Maybe $120m.
On 4/15/2024 at 12:55 PM, Porthos said:The film It, not Joker. 🙂 The Italicization was a little hard to see, I think.
FWIW, top adjusted R openings (this is using an est 2024 atp so it differs slightly from the-numbers which is using a (slightly off) 2023 atp):
DP1 170M
Reloaded 169M (easy 200+ if Fri open)
DP2 153M
It 153M
POTC 150M
Hangover 2 120M
Amer Sniper 117.5M
Joker 116.5M
200+ easily possible for R nowadays if excitement is there (as we may see in July)-
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4 hours ago, Justin said:
I doubt the Fall guy will hit 95 million. It only made 4 million last week and with bad boys coming out this week, it’s gonna take a hit. The highest I can see it reach is 90 million
The Fall Guy made 6.47M in the last week, a 25% drop from the prior Th-Wed week (excluding mons because of memorial funkiness). Needs 33.2% drops on avg from here, should be very doable. Even if you pencil in 40% vs bad boys (which seems pretty pessimistic) it could get there with 28.3% avg drops after. I would say more likely to fall in the 95-100 zone than 90-95
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On 4/30/2024 at 6:00 PM, CJohn said:
So how are things actually turning out relative to this May scenario:
TFG 28/95 (bang on)
Apes 58/170
IF 34/120
furiosa 26/32/75
garf 24/31/100
Pretty good forecast
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To be fair it will underperform
SpoilerAs in beating ultron DOM but not TA 2012
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Lowest post memorial weekend winner since Backdraft in 1991 with 9,118,395 (~24M adjusted to 2024 atp)
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20 minutes ago, Porthos said:
It is the Year 2024 and some people STILL think reshoots, extensive or otherwise, are a *BAD* thing.
Like, it boggles the mind.
Think about it porthos. If a movie was going to be good, they would just get everything perfect on the first take 😤
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1 hour ago, Porthos said:
CM EQUIV 230 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV 235 seats sold today at equivalent sources of trackingThe heck was going on here
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3 hours ago, thajdikt said:
35M previews seems optimistic, 30M should be more realistic imo
35 seems more realistic than 30 for now imo but the very early start for MCU does leave things a bit uncertain
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Inside Out 2 | June 14, 2024 | Pixar does it again!
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Tracking is literally intended to be a prediction of the final ow. That it’s not the final prediction of the eventual ow doesn’t excuse misses
That said we’ve known industry tracking is a joke for all 6+ years I’ve been here so not really sure why it keeps getting discussed 😆