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Cooper Legion

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Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Cooper Legion
    Nah, there’s a reason we do bother with inflation and it’s because it provides a more accurate picture of relative performances. That said there is some estimation error for admits, room to talk about nominal grosses too of course
  2. Cooper Legion
    15.5 Fri would take dp to 55 wknd 640-670ish in all likelihood. 53 wknd drop those by 5M of course
  3. Cooper Legion
    Not even close
  4. Cooper Legion
    Amusingly I just wound up seeing it. I didn’t find it “so bad it’s good” but I also didn’t find it “so bad” to begin with. Not good either, mind you. Just pretty replacement level sci-fantasy action comedy thing. An important disclaimer here is that I have ZERO prior franchise knowledge (see posts from June where I was unaware the trailer was even for an adaptation). I would assume that if I liked the source material I would have hated the movie much more, as that is usually how it goes with adaptations
  5. Cooper Legion
    Wow, only got the 5th one right
  6. Cooper Legion
    Final stalker challenge lightning round (in order of difficulty) — what is my: Middle name favorite magic card Favorite US house representative favorite modern horizons card Social Security number
  7. Cooper Legion
    I think TA waste first time I was somewhat aware of and interested in BO numbers, didn’t really get deeper until like Gotg2-ish, maybe
  8. Cooper Legion
    Weak Wednesday tbh. Hopefully some of that is chalked up to EA and the fss/wed can be better than usual. Tighten from say 620-670 to 625-660 or so
  9. Cooper Legion
    Oh, definitely would have been hurt if ds2 and L&T came out first. I guess I was imaging a scenario where MCU returns much slower — say BW Labor Day 21, SC xmas 21, eternals May 22, nwh Dec 22, something like that. Or if you prefer keep movies the same but shift vaccine/case timeline up 6 months. Main point is plenty of people were still avoiding theaters back then and there were even have serious mandated shutdowns in DOM midrun. Not really plausible to think that had no or somehow positive impact
  10. Cooper Legion
    NWH was definitely hurt by covid still, both DOM and WW. Helped by Xmas and low competition though. Probably something like 850/2.3B if it released a year later and with China
  11. Cooper Legion
    You don’t have to try to reason about why it doesn’t matter much. I don’t know why and I don’t care why. Important thing is simply whether it does or whether it does not looking at numbers. And there isn’t really anything in relative late legs of movies depending on release date to suggest that this is a factor worth thinking about. Maybe it affects like 1%, 2% something like that but reception and competition play a far larger role
  12. Cooper Legion
    By holding better 😛 The schools thing basically doesn’t matter at all 🤷‍♂️
  13. Cooper Legion
    Completely normal Tues after completely normal mon, nothing has really happened since Saturday 🥱
  14. Cooper Legion
    Anyway seems $30M may be possible which would help in hunt for TLK
  15. Cooper Legion
    Almost a 10% fluctuation in ER compared to a month ago — what did Disney know 👀👀👀
  16. Cooper Legion
  17. Cooper Legion
    3518
  18. Cooper Legion
    It will need better than 50% to stay in the race, but better than 50% is very likely
  19. Cooper Legion
    Yes we know schools are closed. All taken into account already
  20. Cooper Legion
    13-13.5 would be fine for 700 target but it’s not gonna be that high
  21. Cooper Legion
    12ish would be fine, suggesting expected drop in 40s for this week
  22. Cooper Legion
    It’ll be below 13 lol. 15 would be a crazy hold, sending to something like a 120 week and TGM dom (not happening)
  23. Cooper Legion
    I have about 5M less than that for TA DOM. In any case, China does make things a bit tricky. Leaving China aside for now: TA 3rd DOM, 4th os-c, 3rd WW-C AoU 7th DOM, 10th OS-C, 6th WW-C For DOM nowadays that’s 815-685, OS-C 1.1-850, WW-C 2.1-1.9ish. With Geomean of ranks ~5th (720), 6th (1B), 4th (~2.05B). Doomsday should probably be able to perform at least 700+ DOM 900+OS-C 150+China given where various markets are in moviegoing and 2026 atps.
  24. Cooper Legion
    You know what years those came out, right? Matching TA or AOU success/admits is 2B+ now
  25. Cooper Legion
    Oooh, right. I was thinking of those as the same since JW is currently 10th DOM and OS, forgot 8th WW. Agree with your list
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