[Weekday Thread | TUE - Flash $5.28M, Elementals $5.0M, Spidey $4.7M, Transformer $2.8M, TLM $2.2M]

BOR has Flash in 4th 👀

 

Film (Distributor)Weekend
GrossTotal
Gross%
ChangeWeek
#

1Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
(Sony / Columbia)$20.0 M$317.9 M-26%4

2Elemental
(Disney)$18.4 M$65.2 M-38%2

3No Hard Feelings
(Sony / Columbia)$16.0 M$16.0 MNEW1

4The Flash
(Warner Bros.)$15.4 M$87.7 M-72%2

5Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
(Paramount)$11.2 M$122.5 M-46%3

6Asteroid City
(Focus)$9.3 M$10.5 M+990%2

7The Little Mermaid
(Disney)$8.2 M$269.7 M-26%5

8Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
(Disney)$3.6 M$351.2 M-32%8

9The Blackening
(Lionsgate)$3.4 M$12.6 M-43%2

10The Boogeyman
(Disney / 20th Century)$2.2 M$37.4 M-40%4

[Weekday Thread | TUE - Flash $5.28M, Elementals $5.0M, Spidey $4.7M, Transformer $2.8M, TLM $2.2M]

21 minutes ago, Eric Wayne said:

Oh my god Eric is SuperBat confirmed

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

5 hours ago, M37 said:

But runs into the problem of having a small, nuanced, and constantly evolving data set where setting upper and lower bounds that determine a 80/90% CI and therefore 50% outcome is a fairly subjective process 

 

Whether one considers AMWQ, GOTG3, BA or Transformers to be normal-ish or more outlier-y outcomes weighs heavily on setting a mid-point for future releases 

Sure, I mean, it’s not easy. But it’s no easier to try to target the 30th percentile or the 20th percentile or whatever. If I miss I miss but I’d at least like to be aiming at the center you know

[Weekday Thread | TUE - Flash $5.28M, Elementals $5.0M, Spidey $4.7M, Transformer $2.8M, TLM $2.2M]

You know what else expanded to 4256 theaters in its 2nd weekend…

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

Agree with caution on Barbie though. This is a great start clearly but is it going to open like minions... or IM like twilight? Very different scenarios, still quite unclear to me.

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

But they are usually linked, in that there is a tendency to get carried away and over-project on the high end, though there are occasions where the doom & gloom is overstated.
Barbie in particular is a film where a lot of online hype and female skewing audience could lead to huge early sales rush that paces only moderately from there (fwiw, something I’ve cautioned about for Oppenheimer too based on PLF draw)

 

I’d rather set a “realistic” aka lower bar and be pleasantly surprised on the few occasions when it gets beaten, than aim too high and be “disappointed” over and over 

I'd rather set a bar which things come over 50% of the time and under 50% of the time since that's maximally realistic 😛

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

9 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It is not silly when it is backed by statistic, completely scientific. And it is never a harmful thing to keep people expectation realistic. 

Somehow I feel like every single time I see someone talk about “keeping expectations realistic” they mean “keeping expectations low” when those are in fact two totally different things from each other.

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

3 minutes ago, Eric Wayne said:

So like...is No Hard Feelings gunning for 20M+ now? Like I'm seeing stuff around 1.7M from people here, and there's no reason for this not to be frontloaded. Would be fun to see this be the #1 victor after all.

I feel like 10x has kind of been the post-pandemic “default” (even for small preview stuff)… in schooltime. In summer I would guess maybe 8-9x? Thinking 1.5-> 13 or so still hit could go to high teens

[Weekday Thread | TUE - Flash $5.28M, Elementals $5.0M, Spidey $4.7M, Transformer $2.8M, TLM $2.2M]

My big problems with CM are the same now as the day I watched it — prequel+amnesiac plot gives us very little time with “what is carol danvers actually like as a person.” Marvels will fix that at last.

[Weekday Thread | TUE - Flash $5.28M, Elementals $5.0M, Spidey $4.7M, Transformer $2.8M, TLM $2.2M]

27 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

On the bright side maybe they stop making multiverse movies after Beyond the spider-verse. 

Unfortunately we’re saddled with like 4 more years of this 🥴

[Weekday Thread | TUE - Flash $5.28M, Elementals $5.0M, Spidey $4.7M, Transformer $2.8M, TLM $2.2M]

Lowest DCEU 2nd wknds:

FEoOHQ 17.2

FotG 9.3M

TSS 7.5M

WW84 5.4M

3rd:

FEoOHQ 6.8M

FoTG 4.6M

TSS 3.4M

WW84 3.0M

[Weekday Thread | TUE - Flash $5.28M, Elementals $5.0M, Spidey $4.7M, Transformer $2.8M, TLM $2.2M]

>1% chance on that under 100 DOM club imo

[Weekday Thread | TUE - Flash $5.28M, Elementals $5.0M, Spidey $4.7M, Transformer $2.8M, TLM $2.2M]

Jockeying to crush Morbius’s 2nd weekend record, could be under 4M 3rd weekend if stars align. Legendary

[Weekday Thread | TUE - Flash $5.28M, Elementals $5.0M, Spidey $4.7M, Transformer $2.8M, TLM $2.2M]

Holy Sheeeeeet it’s a gonner.  
 

Green Lantern 3.9M wed ->18M wknd.  
Lightyear 4.25-> 18M

 

[The Flash — Domestic Opening Weekend Contest!!]

On 6/13/2023 at 1:28 AM, Into the Legion-Verse said:

54321000

RIP 😆

[Weekday Thread | TUE - Flash $5.28M, Elementals $5.0M, Spidey $4.7M, Transformer $2.8M, TLM $2.2M]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

https://deadline.com/2023/06/box-office-the-flash-jennifer-lawrence-no-hard-feelings-1235421825/

Warner Bros DC’s The Flash, despite tumbling down with a $55M start, will remain atop the box office with a $16.5M-$24.7M second weekend take as the marketplace largely takes a breath sans tentpoles before Disney/Lucasfilm’s Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny arrives for the Independent Day stretch. That weekend 2 slide for The Flash reps a 55% to 70% decline.

 

Deadline have given up entirely on accurately projecting the Flash with precision, what kind of range is that? 🤣

Best part will be if it misses the range 🔥

[Weekday Thread | TUE - Flash $5.28M, Elementals $5.0M, Spidey $4.7M, Transformer $2.8M, TLM $2.2M]

Yeah kind of looks like more mid teens than high teens for verse. I would probably give the weekend to elemental, and It’s not looking to beat Gotg3 by much

[South Korea Box Office]

Roughhhh for spidey, elemental  is going to eat it’s lunch

[Weekday Thread | TUE - Flash $5.28M, Elementals $5.0M, Spidey $4.7M, Transformer $2.8M, TLM $2.2M]

1 minute ago, Flip said:

Bigger drops make sense since I think it wasn’t a day off holiday everywhere last year IIRC

It was a federal holiday for the last time and got more state level adoption in 2020/2021 mostly. With the actual holiday being Sunday the day off should have fallen on Mon much like this year.

 

Next year Juneteenth will be Wed so not comparable

[Weekday Thread | TUE - Flash $5.28M, Elementals $5.0M, Spidey $4.7M, Transformer $2.8M, TLM $2.2M]

Btw expect big drops for SV2 and YUGE drop for TLM since they got the most holiday benefit

[Weekday Thread | TUE - Flash $5.28M, Elementals $5.0M, Spidey $4.7M, Transformer $2.8M, TLM $2.2M]

Last post father’s/juneteenth tues for reference: 

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2022/06/21

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

3 hours ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Juneteenth homies supporting miles. Wonder how gotg and tlm did

Gotg +10% last mon, tlm -6% from sun lol.   

 

 

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

Juneteenth homies supporting miles. Wonder how gotg and tlm did

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Right now, I’d put the cut line at O/U Lightyear ($118M) 

Epically bad OWeek multi for LY. Consistently amazing drops. What a run.

[Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.]

17 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Does nobody have a grasp of reality anymore

 

Not everything is the BEST or the WORST. Not everything is a BOMB or a HUGE SUCCESS. Why is everything moving to the extremes at an alarming rate?

Bruh people are talking about Flash being a MEGA BOMBA because flash is, factually, a MEGA BOMBA