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Legion Again

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    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Derby Legion

    2 hours ago, Dragoncaine said:

    Any truth to this tweet from a box office account with 14k followers saying The Batman has exceeded $20m in U.S. presales?

    Pretty unlikely, probably 15Mish

    2 hours ago, PenguinXXR said:


    Charlie would know better but that’s probably fairly close. Most trackers have it about 30-40% of NWH (at the same point in time) and that did over $40M presales in the first 24 hours. So let’s say NWH was $50-60M about 10 days out, some math and extrapolation would say The Batman should be around $20M by now. 

    NWH ballpark 65 10 days out, so Batman ~ 20%. The (tues+wed+Th)/(Th) is doing a lot better for Batman than the FSS/FSS— to be more precise maybe about a third for prev/prev vs like a sixth for postprev/postprev. NWH had already sold out many of the best Th screens/seats and spilled over quite a lot, whereas Batman hasn’t. You can check out @Inceptionzq prev/Fri/Sat/Sun ratios to see this in action.

    2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

    When you account for the early fan events, it should be well over 20m IMO

     

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    President's Day Weekend Thread: Uncharted 3.7 Previews, Dog 1.26

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 hour ago, DAJK said:

    I've been sick today so I've only been able to track a handful of theatres, but Uncharted seemed to hold a lot better today than most theaters forecasted. Even with the biggest drop that I've tracked, Monday was 66% of Sunday, which if that pans out, would be 1M higher than was given in the Monday estimates. 

     

    Now, it is just anecdotal data, and the holiday could skew much more heavily in Canada for moviegoing than in the US (?), but it is encouraging at the very least. 

    Sony went very pessimistic with both Holland movies. Have been expecting both to beat by at least 20%, probably more like 25%.

    President's Day Weekend Thread: Uncharted 3.7 Previews, Dog 1.26

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Derby Legion

    49 minutes ago, narniadis said:

    Unsurprisingly Sony was a tad optimistic for both of then. That Sunday hold for NWH was a ridiculous expectation. Hopefully today is on point or better. 

     

    26 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

    Wait aren't these Sunday numbers? 2.6 will be a very strong Sunday hold. 

     

    23 minutes ago, druv10 said:

    You're right about Uncharted but NWH is over 215K higher than Sunday estimate by Sony.

     

    4 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

    Maybe I’m totally misreading, but the Sunday estimate on BOM is $2.835 million. Thus, $2.6 million would be a decrease of about $235K.

     

    Still a phenomenal weekend hold and incredible late run regardless.

     

    Peace,

    Mike

    Mojo has the wrong sun est (to be precise, they fat fingered the 3 and the 8). The-numbers is showing the correct sun est from Sony of 2.385 (7.2-fri-sat). It beat that by ~10% per Jat’s num.

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    President's Day Weekend Thread: Uncharted 3.7 Previews, Dog 1.26

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Derby Legion

    Look it’s just a brute mathematical fact that NWH is the movie women returned to the cinema for far more than any other. As krissykin was trying to point out initially here — looking at the % can be kind of misleading in terms of the “is x demo returning to cinemas” question (which is perhaps not a good a good question on the first place).    
     

    If a movie opened to 120M with 70% women, I think there is an understandable kneejerk reaction to view that as a movie bringing women back to theaters or whatever… but the only difference between that and a 210M opener with 40% women is the missing $90M from men. Bringing more women out and bringing a higher % of women out are very different. The stuff that actually gets xyz demo butts in seats in real numbers is your 4quad megablockbusters more than stuff targeted specifically to xyz demo.   
     

    Sorry you seem so touchy about this @BestPicturePlutoNash but it is what it is so you’re probably not going to get people to stop bringing it up 🤷‍♂️

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