Joyous Legion

Also fwiw the 200 talk was way crazier than sub 100 talk (though Eric is correct I don’t buy sub 100 to begin with) 😛

Eh, it’s pretty hard to say. Being harder to fit into someone’s schedule probably did hurt endgame on the margin — how could it not? Titanic, rotk, etc etc. Now you’re right that really long movies are often some of the best performers of all time despite that, so it’s not a big issue by any means. But a lot of the time I think that’s a common confounder — the movie is very “epic” (either some historical epic or franchise finale) which both generates a long ass runtime and a very high desire to see it, which more than outweighs any more direct causal harms from being mega long. If Batman feels like a movie that needed to be 3 hours, I agree it’ll do gangbusters according to historical precedent. If it feels like a movie that’s 3 hours but didn’t need to be, that’s where you can have issues on net.

There’s definitely no screen capacity issue, but there are people who would be able to fit a 2.5 hr excursions into their life that weekend but not a 3.5 hour one — or people who just don’t like the bladder implications. Nobody who’s extremely hyped will be turned about, but an important part of any OW is the not-extremely-hyped people. I think a couple % hit there is not outlandish.

21st century consecutive top 5s: Croods2 17 Avatar 12 Frozen 11 MBFGW 10 TFA 9 Lotta stuff 8 NWH gonna be 8 I guess but hopefully 9

Most 21st century weekend #1s: Avatar 7 NWH 6 BP and Croods2 5 TFA/TDK/ROTK/Passion of Christ/FOTR/THG/Grinch (2000)/ JWTTJ/GotG/F7/Mockingjay2/Meet the Parents/The Martian 4 Jumanji’s are wknds 3,4,5,7 so I think it, Avatar, and NWH are the only 7th weekend winners. Xmas movies winning late Jan.

Why not? The runtime probably will hurt a little, it wasn't obviously gonna crush 100 even with a normal one. I'm still on like 120 I guess but this is hardly the deadline low-ball special "the industry will be happy with [40% of the realistic OW]."

If THE BATMAN presale tickets go live early enough, it might top the OW record with its final Dom gross.

There is some snowstorm/superbowl/pres timing that lines up awkwardly —: TFA 6th wknd snowstorm 8th SB 9th pres NWH 5th snowstorm (also MLK) 9th SB 10th pres

Sounds like you went to the trouble of pruning fake 6th weekends, could you post the results?

Bar for top mcu 7th wknd (so next wknd) is Black Panther’s 11,486,915. I’d take the under but I think it’s in play.

This+omicron on the downslope

Sony coming in with 3.515 for NWH, +164%. I’m not predicting it or anything but 15M isn’t ludicrous if Sat goes big.

My 3.55 legs joke is actually coming true 🤔

I have scream over 13

I was in fact conservative on all 3 movies where I have max

King’s Man is beating its derby max. 355 is beating its derby max. WSS is beating its derby max. I think this will give me another win, run more detailed nums when I wake up.

Guys the studios are gonna report in like an hour anyway 😛

Redeeming Love going to romp the derby max. NWH also beating its derby max but by a far more modest %. Let’s see if other movies can do so as well — 355 and KM would not surprise me.

Mcu super bowl commercials: Falcon Winter Solider 2021 Black Widow, D+ sizzle reel 2020 Endgame, CM 2019 Infinity War 2018 Gotg2 2017 CW 2016 AoU 2015 … I don’t think they’ll do a full 2 minute trailer at the Super Bowl of course. Could either: 30 second Thor SB teaser, longer trailer released online same day or next (Valentine’s) — iirc Solo did this Thor gets nothing at SB, tv spot for DS2 no movies promoted at SB at all, 30 second spot for MK (maybe with a smidge of She-Hulk and Ms Marvel)

I don’t think it’s ever been wise financially to pay for a SB ad for an mcu movie, but they’ve done it plenty and I see no reason to assume they’ve wised up since then 🤷‍♂️

Guess this may be bit of a interesting test of legs in some ways, no Xmas stuff

Intuitively I expect a larger Fri Jump actually correlates with a larger Sat jump -- but there are dynamics in both directions so it would be interesting to run an actual analysis and see how it netted out.

Post MLK Sat recent laterun genre comps (I'm noting whether it was a conference championship wknd -- that deflates Sun and arguably shifts a little sun business to Sat, though I personally doubt it has much affect): TFA +93 (champs) RO +103 (champs) TLJ +95 (champs) JWTTJ +95 (champs) AQM +100 (no champs) Bumblebee +115 (no champs) Spiderverse +118 (no champs) TROS +103 (no champs) JTNL +117 (no champs) Serious kid stuff bounces around 200, fairly adult skewing still sees a bounce like 70-90. Should be 90-100ish for NWH, the a drop in the 30s since no champs, this taking out TFA's 6th weekend.

They underestimated the Sat bump actually

Sun should easily be over TFA. Sat &wknd over TFA should be in play as well.