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Legion Again

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    NWH Prediction Contest/Game: DOM and Weekend Ranks. Deadline Dec 19 11:59 Pacific

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Product Driven Legion

     

    Well, we’re capping off a dull BO year with a bang that’s got everyone excited and producing some lively debates. With such exciting expected BO runs comes a flurry of activity and prediction, some friendly competition in the forms of clubs for bragging rights — and even the occasional contest or two for some modest prizes. The main festivities on dec 16-20 are already good and covered by @Cap’s OW contest  (if you’re somehow reading this and hadn’t seem that one yet, go check it out!). A contest which, wise to the powers and sorcery of the 2021 buzz thread, locked previews before NWH sales blew the hinges off even the most optimistic of predictions.  
     

    But as we’ve gained (some) clarity on what kind of kickoff to expect, more discussion and disagreement turns to that other half of the box office equation — just how well can this thing do after those first 3 days, anyway? Especially with the inherent tension between the good legs that can come from the holiday season, and the front loading risks that can come from huge fan buzz. @Multiverse of XXR and I each had some interest in contests exploring the later(/full) parts of the run, so here we are with a double header.   
     

    Predict the Multiverse (Part One)  (50 points)


    This one is nice and easy — where will NWH ultimately end up on the domestic all-time record books? Ties here are pretty likely, so we’ll use gross to tiebreak as needed. However, the gross only matters as a tiebreak — if the actual is, say, 937M, than a guess of 1st place+1B (here’s looking at @nguyenkhoi282) would beat a submission of 2nd place+936M, because the actual result was 1st place.
     

    Winner gets a month of gold, 2nd place silver, 3rd place bronze.
     

    Editor’s note: I do NOT, personally, recommend predicting 1st place 😛 
     

    Username   
    DOM rank  
    DOM gross  


    Predict the Multiverse (Part Two) (66 points)


    This one is a bit more of a deep dive. For each weekend whose records are tracked by Box Office Mojo, predict where NWH’s corresponding weekend will rank.

    • 2nd weekend = 11
    • 3rd weekend = 10
    • 4th Weekend = 9
    • 5th Weekend = 8
    • 6th Weekend = 7
    • 7th Weekend = 6
    • 8th Weekend = 5
    • 9th Weekend = 4
    • 10th Weekend = 3
    • 11th Weekend = 2
    • 12th Weekend = 1

     

    For a total of 66 points. 

     

    We’ll have cumulative standings develop after each of the weekend results if you want to follow along (or of course you can just put this out of your mind after submission and hope to get a ping for winning like 5 months later, whatever suits your style).

     

     Winner gets wins a month of gold, 2nd place silver, 3rd place bronze.

     

    Username   
    Weekend Predicted Rank
    2  
    3  
    4  
    5  
    6  
    7  
    8  
    9  
    10  
    11  
    12  

     

    Technical note: Feel free to supply grosses if it’s more convenient and they’ll be converted automatically.
     

    Combining the Multiverse

     

    It’s uhh… it’s the sum of people’s scores from the two parts we just talked about above. No extra bells and whistles, just good ole addition. 
     

    Winner gets a month of gold, 2nd place silver, 3rd place bronze.  
     

    Which brings us to SCORING:

     

    Tl;dr of scoring — the closer your prediction is to what actually happens, the better you’ll score! 

    The longer answer:

     

    Spoiler

    “Closer” is slightly more complicated with ranks than just subtracting, and we need to easily combine some likely actuals in the single digits with some in the triple digits, so proportionality is key here. On any given weekend (or overall DOM) your score is equal to the smaller of [your prediction&the actual rank] divided by the larger. Some quick examples:

    you predict a 3rd place OW, the actual is 5th, that’s 3/5=60% (decent)

    You predict a 5th place OW, the actual is 3rd, that’s 3/5=60% (same distance)

    You predict a 3rd place 12th weekend (the legs :o ) and the actual is 200th, that’s 3/200=1.5% (not so great bob)

    You predict a 200th place 12th weekend , the actual is 200th place, and that’s 200/200=100% (great job hitting that one on the bullseye!)

     

    Multiplied by 50, 12, 11, 7, 1, etc depending on how important that particular prediction was.

    Deadline:

     

    • THE DEADLINE FOR SUBMISSION ON BOTH PARTS IS SUNDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2021 @ 11:59PM PST.  


     

    Other miscellaneous rules and info:

    • All Submissions MUST BE sent into me or @Multiverse of XXR via PM or posted in this thread.  No Telegram PMs.
    • All Submissions are LOCKED by their deadline.  No late entries.  No edits.  Before the deadline, you can edit your submission as many times as you want.

     

    • Any exact ties (after explicit tiebreaks) will be broken by your handy dandy google random number generator. This should only come up if two people give the exact same DOM gross tiebreaker or submit identical weekend predictions, so I’d be surprised, but just to cover our bases fully.
       
    • Users can enter any and/or all of the parts and be eligible to win the associated prizes. In particular, if you just want to drop a domestic gross off the top of your head, that will make you fully eligible for the first part of the contest.

     

    • Like 3

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

    Separate from whatever Amazon Pay/Atom is doing next week, Slickdeals (and the T-Mo App) is reporting that TMobile will be offering its subscribers $4 all-in Spidey tickets next Tuesday.  This is completely unexpected to me b/c I'd have waited to buy if I knew I had 3 of 6 tickets for $4 waiting...oh well, maybe I'll let my boys watch it twice...

    Couldn’t you get your already purchased tickets refunded at full price, and then quickly grab the exact same seats at the discount?

    • Like 1

    Spider-Man: No Way Home | December 17, 2021 | The More Fun Stuff Version (yes, that's what it's called) comes to theaters September 2nd!

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, Menor said:

    Showing T&A is pointless at this stage. They successfully managed to get massive hype and ticket sales just from rumors. Keep them secret to help the WOM. 

    Personally I would keep them “secret” so close, but I bet the final PS would be noticeably higher if they get shown. Still some GA who aren’t aware.

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Product Driven Legion

    Good news: I have set up most of what I wanted to set up. 
    Bad news: the unique circumstances of the run are making the output even goofier than expected. Mostly 100+ previews sort of stuff that I am not going to bother posting. I am hopeful that when comps begin to go up the 2nd half of the U, I will be getting more reasonable results.   
     

    On a very high level I would say the NWH pace is great for t-11ish, but it won’t ramp up to a degree of almost any comps we have because its U bottom isn’t very bottomy.

    • Like 1

    Spider-Man: No Way Home | December 17, 2021 | The More Fun Stuff Version (yes, that's what it's called) comes to theaters September 2nd!

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, YourMother said:

    I could see that low of an IM. The MCU films this year have been getting more frontloaded as of late and it depends on how much families return back in full force.

    Don’t really buy this. The 3 films you’re talking about were:

    PA

    Solid IM

    worst in franchise reception and still 7.5

     

    The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Don’t have a shift tonight, planning to finally do some serious fun with numbers BUT — as we near the bottom of the “U” here, it is abundantly clear that the extra showings/screen vs endgame is heavily affecting the Th and fri pace on that comp, the short ps run vs 50 day ps run is screwing with the pace vs TROS, and everything else we’ve got to work with is on a different order of magnitude. So I’m not really planning to read much into whatever results I get, just more get the legwork out of the way.

    • Like 3

    Spider-Man: No Way Home | December 17, 2021 | The More Fun Stuff Version (yes, that's what it's called) comes to theaters September 2nd!

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Product Driven Legion

    Btw, a while ago @charlie Jatinder was saying to almost treat as a Th opening movie. So here are highest Th ODs and their trueThFSS/trueTh:

    ROTS 141.5/33.1=4.275x (pretty close to TROS)  

    Matrix Reloaded 125/33.2=3.76x 

    Hangover 2 107.1/21.2=5.05 (lmao wtf) 

    AotC 104/24=4.33x (again, close to ROTS and TROS, huh)

    Kingdom of the Crystal Skull 120.7/20.5=5.89x

     

    TPM was Wed OD, but has (true OD+FSS)/true OD of 78.3/21=3.73x — burned off more demand with Day 2 so this makes sense.   

     

    It’s slim pickings, frankly. I think ROTS/AOTC nums should be about a floor, but it’s the same floor as TROS, so…

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