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Legion Again

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Everything posted by Legion Again

  1. Legion Again
    Well, an IM under 7 seems very reasonable based on the fundamentals, and the MTC Th vs Fri sales reinforce that. I have to imagine we would see the same in Philly, Sacto, Utah, etc if people went digging for Fri sales. So it’s mostly the preview where I’d hope to see your regions miss. And looking at other data seems quite plausible — depending on how optimistic you wanna get with comps
  2. Legion Again
    Well then. Hopefully your areas are outlying on the low side.
  3. Legion Again
    We’re at the point where I won’t be surprised if they are my favorite two movies so far this year and I also won’t be that surprised if they combined open below 40M.
  4. Legion Again
    👀
  5. Legion Again
    So, lol, The Rock being The Rock. It was a really quite nice Sat though. I wonder if that bodes well for legs.
  6. Legion Again
    The MTC2 JC comp Th+Fri is probably a 28M weekend or so. It seems very optimistic to me for a DCEU movie to have as much PS ramp up from here as a family actioner, but crazier things have certainly happened
  7. Legion Again
    65/170
  8. Legion Again
    Yeah, if it somehow goes under I don’t think my decision to meltdown will be particularly controversial, LOL. If it does 21.2 then a lot of people will probably be melting down around me as I shrug and say “well, it beat my bar, can’t complain 🤷‍♂️“ But hopefully it’s just nowhere close to that.
  9. Legion Again
    I was reasonably happy with how my plan to set a low and clear personal meltdown bar in advance for BW weekend worked out. It meant I didn’t have to recalibrate “is this good, or is this bad, or is this terrible” etc etc every time a new number rolled in (although it unfortunately it did end up going below my meltdown bar and being a horrific crumbling flop Anyway, I think I’m going to do the same thing for this movie so I can just keep calm and carry on. And my meltdown/crumbling/flop bar will be: $21,144,800
  10. Legion Again
    Actually, MK could be a solid comp. Went back and checked. At Sun before release, MK had twice the tickets for Fri at MTC2 that TSS does for Th+Fri. That was for non summer too. Could be worth digging around for run rates, but when Menor says Fri looks bad I really want to emphasize that it looks baaaaaaaaaaaaad.
  11. Legion Again
    TSS and MK are both R? But it’s not obvious that TSS can beat MK’s OW
  12. Legion Again
    The entire board does revolve around this thread when you weight by importance 👀 I’ve been trying to lower TSS expectations elsewhere in part to avoid a meltdown, but I suspect there is a level of performance around Alice Looking Glass that will cause things to get rowdy no matter how much they’ve been lowered.
  13. Legion Again
    JC could go 17-18 imo, and TSSTFSS possibly as low as 16 or so, though that’s definitely not the center of my range.
  14. Legion Again
    Come to think of it, TSS true FSS is not even a lock to top JC next weekend. Though probably will.
  15. Legion Again
    I am not that far away from a Free Guy OW over TSS OW club. 20s for both 👀
  16. Legion Again
    The standard showings are getting really concerning at this point
  17. Legion Again
    JC True FSS will probably end up 32-33M, vs 67M for BW, so makes sense the PA is about half.
  18. Legion Again
    I think 100-110 ish without PA, so maybe 120-130ish without PA or any pandemic? Hard to say, may be a little too optimistic, but 110+ should be pretty comfortable. Hard to say whether PA or MAX is hurting movies more, so sure, maybe add 40-50% as a first approximation?
  19. Legion Again
    Dang, better hold than I expected for Snake Eyes based on the Friday. Not even coming close to MK’s record…
  20. Legion Again
    Family OW record is my guess?
  21. Legion Again
    If JC really goes to 35M here I would not consider that an easy bar for TSS whatsoever. Or an unassailable bar, by any means.
  22. Legion Again
    Yes
  23. Legion Again
  24. Legion Again
    Oh yeah, lol. Well, still think 1B WW-C would be possible which is pretty great.
  25. Legion Again
    As far as expectations setting for TSS, doesn’t help that BOP has it at 35-60 (though I can only assume it has come down in this week’s private update).
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