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Thanos Legion

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Everything posted by Thanos Legion

  1. So that “maybe I’ll go to sleep earlier today” thing didn’t exactly work out. After the brief ups and downs earlier I’m right back at expecting 42, but maybe the night will surprise.
  2. Behind CW, AoU, BP, IW, and maybe SMHC is 6th, maybe 5th, no? Still either 2nd or third best not to feature Iron Man+Cap.
  3. Indonesia feels like one of the most important markets to watch for the next decade. Can’t wait for the Endgame Numbers there.
  4. Some of these are way too high, some are way too low, some are summer, some franchises particularly walkup friendly or not, theaters not exactly the same, 2 days left, etc. Use with caution. Still, figured people would be interested in the numbers anyway, so there they are.
  5. Been meaning to ask, for the movies with Thurs numbers are those also theough midnight? Or only through when previews start?
  6. Also serious danger if you visit that reddit, some Endgame “spoilers” went up that are the first I’d consider really believable.
  7. Timing and detail. Several hours after the red carpet something like this always goes up, and it’s always right. After all, enough people who use the reddit by then have actually seen the movie that if someone posts bullshit by then they get discredited quickly.
  8. To some extent yes, but I’d certainly be less likely to buy tickets for a movie coming up on the weekend while I’m eating a meal, and at least in US lunchtimes are more concentrated in a certain hour than dinner. Anyway, have observed it enough now that I’ve come to expect it, but no explanation I’m super sure about. Will see if PS continue to dip at noon or not for other runs.
  9. Yes, typo. Thanks and fixed. Just got curious what the patterns throughout the day were and wanted to be at least a bit familiar with them for Endgame, which I’m sure I’ll follow even more obsessively. But anyone else finding it interesting is a great bonus. 12:00 to 12:30 is only +.26, but I’ll point out that period is usually 25% or less the nearby hourly rate rather than 50%, not sure why but maybe to do with lunch.
  10. Well, naturally predicting the legs is harder than predicting the OW right now — we have solid presale data from various regions, but I haven’t seen the movie yet and we have only pretty weak indicators of GA reception. That said, should be 400-550 DOM, maybe 550-750 OS, 1-1.25B or so.
  11. Should beat BP on Fandango for today, but pretty tough to tell how meaningful that is with the review embargo drop. Perhaps better to compare to IW today, which had the same embargo release timing. IW Fandango tickets on Tues were +10% of Mon, same for CM would be 37.4k. That looks pretty close. Edit 23:00 38.2k 00:00 38.4k Wait for CoolEric in about an hour to calculate the more precise number, but I think it will be above 37.4k
  12. How would you even hit a 300M WW OW? DOM crashes to 120, China crashes to 80, SK crashes to 20,... and you need to somehow make only 80 in the whole rest of the world?
  13. There’s being conservative and there’s being unrealistically low in the face of data. Would be very interested to see the OW and total for DOM, China, maybe SK, UK, Australia, Brazil in that prediction.
  14. Not joking, just rounded up to nearest 100M for optimism. THR and Deadline lowballs are the real joke.
  15. Today: 7-10 +.58 10-11 +.87 Roughly double Mon pace so far, so perhaps add 13? My targets roughly 14:00 34.2, 17:30 37.3, midnight 42.6. However, would not be surprised with additional acceleration at night today since it’s so close. Half hour update as usual. 12:00 update: +1.14 this hour, so we can safely expect it to exceed above, perhaps by a big margin. Seems like the daily pattern so close to release will be different than previous days, so won’t even try to give a new trajectory. Just sit back and enjoy 13:00 update: +.85 despite the big noon slowdown. Maybe hourly rate shall stabilize around 1.2, maybe higher still? 45+ seems on the way for that +50% POTUS was always expecting 16:00 update: Looks like 11 was actually the outlier rather than a harbinger of a new pace. Last several hours seems to be ~.7 per. Maybe ending around 41-43 after all. This might be the last update, going to sleep too late several days in a row starting to take its toll.
  16. 22:00 38.8k 23:00 38.2k 00:00 38.4k Looking to beat BP imo, but we’ll see how next 3 hours go.
  17. Roughly Ultron numbers, right? Way better than I would have expected for CM a year ago, IW really had a great effect it seems to me.
  18. It will stay below 90, no A+. It will be above 75, probably no A-. The difference in BO impact between 75 and 90ish is really incredibly small imo.
  19. Movietickets and Fandango seem to be telling different stories here, most recent Fandango 24 hr num is 39.1k. Don’t have a particular hypothesis about that.
  20. If the runtime is actually like 170+ minutes, I could see there being some unusually big capacity:demand issues on the weekend, which could spillover some to Mon, Tues, 2nd wknd, sure. But not enough to approach Christmas weekdays, no. But honestly I think theaters might just respond to a long runtime by slashing holdovers even more.
  21. IW 39/33=1.182 BP 25.2/21=1.2 SMH 15.4/9=1.711 So, unsurprisingly, higher multiplier for the lower raw PS. 1.1 should be a pretty safe lower bound for CM, I should think.
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