Legion Again

Lightyear is original since actually TS1 is a spinoff from it

100M is rank 62 atm (AoE and IM1 cancel). Presumably plenty of original movies have done that. Could be fun to complied a list.

Inflation to the rescue 🔥

I call dibs on being Pitt

I think ~every situation warrants a devil’s advocate. But especially one where like 90% of local commentators have a clear rooting interest! I mean cmon that is like the textbook case for one.

I know I’m usually pushing for these things to be longer, but this one actually doesn’t seem as stuffed with characters. Should be a fun change of pace.

You’re uh… probably gonna be disappointed there.

So cute you think I have bias against these movies. I just end up playing devil’s advocate often because a lot of people seem to take a rose colored glasses approach to them based on personal preference. I care because I find the box office industry interesting and fun to follow/predict. Shocking, I know. Who would expect to find such a person in a place like this?

Lmaooooo, what a fair and accurate characterization 🙄 🙄🙄

The best movie possible is one that actually understood, respected, and well utilized the connected universe(s) it’s a part of and/or adjacent to.

Fun times for the derby You should play

No, this is what happens when people (Sony) stop caring about developing a connected universe and want to make a rushed nonsensical cashgrab in their own sandbox.

That has not been my impression 🤷‍♂️ But if so, good 👍

I am expecting 36-40 atm fwiw, if it hits the high end I will sound even more impressed.

Yes, this is good relative to pre-pandemic numbers for Bullock or comedies. What I think a lot of people try to dance around is that the pre-pandemic numbers for these things were happening at the same time as the increasing blockbusterfication and IPification that people love to complain about. Making a 2 ROI on a 100M total spend is nice but it’s not really going to displace the recent chasing of 1.5 ROI on 500M total spend. I think it’s absolutely correct to view this as a good opening and an over performance against expectations. But like I said originally — these numbers being an overperformance demonstrates the weakness of the base case. If people want to see that trend actually reverse, what we’ll need to see is not the occasional overperformance but for the whole reference class to get to a point where these numbers are more like z=0 than z=1.5

I am a little surprised, but not concerned. Probably just indicates we hit the ground running and then get propulsive pacing like IW.

Ah. Well, I think those posts about solo were probably... completely right, though? Like what happens if you market Solo starting very far out -- you lose more money as it does similar nums on a higher marketing budget? Lose more money as the same marketing budget has less material near release and it makes slightly less?

I mean... will it a little or will it a lot? I'm not saying they are extinct, just don't expect a renaissance based on this. We haven't had a movie like this in quite a while. The results seem more like "okay, we can do some more of that" than "oh my God, we've gotta do a lot more of that." Again I feel like of bad going in circles with what people have heard from me before, but some of the reactions on the past page or two seem more like wishcasting than sober analysis.

That’s exactly what I’m saying. Just, y’know, both words there are important to what gets greenlit.

Going by the Thor timeline, September

Terrible news for DS2

Don’t want to become too much a parody of myself, but let’s keep things in perspective. The fact that 30s is great for a movie like this is not very great for the prospects of Hollywood execs chasing a resurgence of movies like this.

Pretty surprised to pick up the max on City and Sing honestly. Quite plausible to me that both go over my nums.

Yeah, but the fact that there are several movies this year where you wouldn’t have such a reaction to 1.5 kind of reinforces the point that 1.5B isn’t a high enough threshold.

Looks like Dumbledore has some surprise competition to be the Dark Phoenix of April 2022 I will watch this contest with great interest.