Legion Again

It becomes kind of a funny psychological game though — if you’re going to open full day Th, why not just open like Fri noon? Because you want a higher reported OW for deceptive headlines or course. Why not Wed at 6 to burn off more megafans in PLF? We are heading there, and the 6 hours wed+all day Th+fri will all be “Friday.”

Speaking purely subjectively, if JW3 hits 1.55B, or an MCU this year gets a China release and does 1.55B, I am not going to have the same “oh my god this is historically huge” reaction as with say TDK or TS3 hitting 1B. I really do need to see a leading 2 for that at this point (though NWH counts since it’s an honors 2.3 or whatever).

Yeah it’s interesting to look at the history of the number of movies past a certain threshold. Doesn’t proceed as steadily as would be convenient. While I note that the number of 2B is similar to the number past 1B a dozen years ago, we also know that we got a bunch more from 2011-2015 — and in the next 5 years I bet we see 1-4 new movies past 2B. The big difference is that China was a hugely populous emerging market at the time and there is no equivalent now — if anything the decline of CBO, especially when it comes to HW, will be an artificial headwind on nominal WW gross growth instead of an artificial tailwind. Though the early 2020s has unusually high global inflation, vs the unusually low global inflation of the early 2010s So is 2B the new 1B? Well, sort of. But also 1.5B is sort of the new 1B. Depends what you mean.

Oh yeah btw, I’m honestly not sure what you’re trying to wink wink at here 😂

If there’s no teaser by July 7 this thing is definitely moving.

The rule of thumb is indeed 2.5x production only, but the thing about rules of thumb of course is they are just rules of thumb. Doesn’t even take into account different revenue % from different territories, for one thing (teeing DOM heavy and very china light actually favors Batman there, it is definitely solidly profitable despite the low 800s likely finish).

So the same amount as we had 1B films in 2010. 2B has the same rarity and megahit status as 1B used to have, just a dozen years ago. In other words… 2B is the new 1B.

Eternals comp seems most appropriate now. Morb under LC 😏

Will Canada be reported?

Yeah, bring in poison Ivy. And Harley Quinn. And bring back catwoman

Morbius is a product of some ancient production tbf. Maybe they can do us the mercy of never following up on any of this and do some reasonable stuff with upcoming non-Venom movies.

Cancelled my tickets

Singalong version this weekend, gaining 10-20% locations and I would guess more showtimes than that. I consider an increase a bit more likely than decrease.

Marvel doesn’t really need to market anything more than a month or two before release, but people are accustomed to having it happened anyway.

Legion Weekend Forecast Lost City 32.5M (26-36) Batman 21.1M RRR 8.5M Uncharted 5.95M JJK 5M Dog 3 X 2.4M NWH 2.15M Sing 1.45M Nile 1M

Soon™️

Currently there are 20 movies that have done this and 9 are MCU. So if everything this year pulls through, we can experience a brief moment of perfect balance before Avatar destroys it again (and then everything is Spider-man fail from home’s fault )

As long as we pass 400/1.1B I’m good

Weekly cume 311 (tu-Th-54.5%) wknd cume 333M // 33M week avg drops 37.5% gives 388M, 45% 373M, 30% 410M

Normal weekday. 400 was unlikely as of Sat

First if by zig, then if by zag. 5/12 wins, 7/12 top 2. Let's keep this train rolling baby 🚆

Have any atp for those two to compare to?

Pretty medium score. 8.6 now is approaching medium-bad.

It’s headed to 20M, not 30. Without covid I think perhaps 60-90 range. Down to 8.6 now btw