jedijake
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Posts posted by jedijake
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Under $100 million 3-day? Wow! Never expected that.
If the IM from previews is meh, can we really expect the overall multiplier to be much more than, say, 3.2?
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TLM missing $100 million 3-day after all of this and projections in the last 1-2 weeks would be very disappointing. But under $30 million definitely points to that reality.
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Over $35 million Saturday could give it $110 m for the 3-day.
$30-$35 mill gives it somewhere between $100-$109 m.
Under $30 m (probably not going to be that low) puts $100 m in some question.
The question is what that "+" means.
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Was hopeful but now WTF.
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26 minutes ago, Noctis said:
36.2m
That's very good. Could be closer to $110 mill for the 3-day.
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What's TLM's Saturday numbers looking like?
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1 hour ago, joselowe said:
Yeah but despite Emma Watson just being in Bell clothing it made almost 1.3 billion worldwide. I agree Halle is the best for the role as I’ve always said, BUT Zendaya would’ve made this a billion dollar grossing film. With Halle in the lead and the backlash and racism, this film is lucky to make at least $500 million worldwide. Don’t know if Disney will be able to break even for this film.
Well let's not be extreme. It will do fine and will make at least close to $400 million domestically alone. So I gather it will make at the very minimum $700 million WW, probably over $800 million.
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The idea that any movie is liked or disliked based on whether the lead female is subjectively considered physically "beautiful" or not is pretty scary itself. That goes for any culture, race, or country.
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I'm glad they didn't cast Zendaya. I like Zendaya. However, I think it would have felt like "that's just Zendaya playing Ariel" rather than "that's Ariel". Emma Watson was always Emma Watson/Hermione in Belle's clothing. It was not her own or didn't feel like her own. Same thing would have been true about Zendaya. With Halle, she REALLY seems like Ariel and there's really not a "that's just Halle playing Ariel". Now, for her future roles, she may get typecast and there may be a "that Halle as Ariel playing <fill in the blank>", but that's for the future to determine. At the moment, Halle IS Ariel and seems to make it her own without any past recognition getting in the way.
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7 minutes ago, Kon said:
I don't think Asian countries owe audience to Hollywood at all. As you say, Americans doesn't seem so interested in Asian films either.
However, it's interesting that Asian countries are rejecting so much the Disney Fairy Tale movie with a black female lead, since it doesn't happened with the previous Disney Fairy Tale movies.
I think a big difference is that Hollywood DOES make movies that feature many or, in some cases, all Asian casts. And they are often big or popular. Asian movies don't get a lot of Western releases and that is likely mostly due to the language barrier. We can say that the same issue exists the other way around, but that would not account for how many American films are extremely popular in Asian nations. BUT that feels like a very different discussion. I think that what most of us are wondering is why TLM specifically is failing in Asian while other remakes have done very well. And with people citing specific online (or otherwise) comments and rants about Halle herself, one would have to deduce that she what who seems to be mostly about.
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2 hours ago, grey ghost said:
Creating new stuff is more risky than using existing IP's.
Hollywood is pretty much done spending 300 m on a tent pole only for it to flop and open to 35m.
I mean it happens with existing IP's but they're easier to predict an outcome. And predicting an outcome is everything when you're gambling 250-350m with every tent pole.
People want familiarity. People don't want to take the time to like something new. Even when there is something new, there has to be something else external to the characters that lures people in (Avatar had the visuals and had a VERY familiar story). This is not due to a lack of creativity. It is due to a lack of movie execs greenlighting creativity for the reasons you stated. And if you look at the box office success of most live action remakes, why in the world would they ever stop?
As for what is happening Asia to TLM, it is really an event to ponder and debate for the ages. This isn't just a drop in box office, but feels more like national sentiments or a protest, boycott, etc. that spans several nations. Very shocking to say the least.
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How much of the failure in Asia has stemmed from "issues" and various narratives that led to violence arising from the pandemic? The question is whether there has been a cultural backlash as a result.
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1 minute ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:
The absoulte high bar for Japan is $50M. Even if it ended up playing close to Aladdin's record numbers,which is impossible, it would gross 100M there. So 150M Europe (which is a tough ask itself unless UK greatly overperforms) + 50M Asia + 50 M LATM//AFR/ARAB + 50 M JP + 20M AUS gets it to 270 OS.
300 M OS would be a miracle and it just won't happen.
Does your Asia number include China? And did you separate Japan from the rest of Asia? I can't understand the $50 million from Asia.
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Just now, Issac Newton said:
China
5.5⭐ Douban ~ 7K ratings
Maoyan/Taopiaopiao should open at low/mid 6.0 ⭐
What does any of that mean? Many of us only go to RT and CS lol.
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35 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:
Yeah $830M WW is absolutely possible, it only needs Japan to gross something like $220M which is totally reasonable 🙄😂😅
Pheraps $20M in Japan might be the realistic expectation, but feel free to dream big.
Assuming $375 million in NO, about $200 million in Europe, you're saying it will pull in less than $100 million in Asia, Latin America, and Africa combined??? (even though Aladdin made $500 million outside NO and Europe)
Even maybe slightly less in Europe (say $150 million total). That still leaves $305 million for the rest of the world and, if Japan makes this fictional number of $220 million, it leaves $85 million. Not saying Japan is making $220 million, but it's reasonable to think that it will spread out more evenly among Asian nations despite what numbers right now may be indicating.
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1 hour ago, Krissykins said:
An A cinema score for The Little Mermaid is great. Others:
The Lion King A
Aladdin A
Maleficent A
Maleficent 2 A
Cinderella A
Cruella A
Beauty & the Beast A
The Jungle Book A
Alice 1 A-
Alice 2 A-
Oh my! Maleficent 2 got a friggin' A???
Alice 2 got a friggin' A-???? Should have gotten a C or lower.
Anyway.....$375 mill domestic for TLM, $830 m WW. That's my prediction right now.
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8 minutes ago, ogkalu said:
The numbers are very weird yeah.
Well I just looked back and noticed that Aladdin's Saturday performed the way I described, but not TGM. So we'll see what happens.
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13 minutes ago, Bob Train said:
Not sure if their numbers match up. I think it's likely that Saturday will be about the same as Thurs+Fri, maybe a bit higher. And Sunday will probably drop no more than 5%.
Thur+Fri=$38 million
Saturday=$38 million
Sunday=$36 million
3-day weekend: $112 million
Monday=$28 million
4-say weekend: $140 million
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1 minute ago, Bob Train said:
It's not gonna be as backloaded as Aladdin with all the competition coming up. Aladdin faced KOTM, a men in black movie that underwhelmed, Dark Phoenix that bombed hard, SLOP 2 which massively underperformed the first. Hardly tough competition until TS4 came out. Nothing made more than 450m until that.
Meanwhile TLM is facing Spider-Man with great presales domestically and abroad, Transformers & The Flash even if they underwhelm should still make more than MIB or Dark Phoenix.
Although the surface-level take would be "Aladdin faced lots of competition and only had PLFs for a week so it was in the same position as TLM" the details show a much different story. Expecting it to be backloaded would be setting expectations too high.
Well maybe yes and maybe no. Elementals will be a fraction of what TS4 was. Transformers will be a disaster. So will Indy I fear. So the two biggest will be Spideyverse and Flash. If it can continue to pull in females and families, it will have strong legs. Maybe not a 3.9X multi but it could get a 3.4-3.5 multi.
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GOTG3 could end up very well north of $350 m. Could it possibly scratch its way to $400 m?
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Any estimates for TLM's true Friday?
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3 hours ago, joselowe said:
The problem is that most of the commentary isnt bashing the film for it's artistic values. Most of the bashing has to do with the race of the main character or saying that these remakes arent needed yet these same people praise other Disney remakes. Hence why Rob's Mary Poppins remake has 80% on RT yet a 64% from audiences on RT while The Little Mermaid has a 67% on RT but a 94% audience score on RT. To pretend that this film hasn't been bashed from the day Halle was announced to now is clearly delusion.
Disagree. Most of the commentary seems to have come pre-loaded with "this movie doesn't have the same charm as the original" or "this movie didn't need to be made" or pretty much "enough of these remakes" which is the same argument made when the movie was ever announced. Most of the more recent critiques have been pretty much cookie cutters of each other which should not be a surprise. Race may have been an issue early on, but I would say that either it isn't as much of an issue now or people are being wise enough to hide it.
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10 minutes ago, joselowe said:
Agree, Halle was perfect, but Zendaya is a black actress that is considered to not be a threat and safe because of her looks and being biracial. I def think this would have reached over $1 billion if Zendaya was in the lead.
threat? safe? what do you mean that Halle is a threat and not safe?
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Overseas will be an interesting topic of discussion for TLM. If it does less than 50% of its WW overseas, then it is going to look VERY interesting considering that Aladdin, Jungle Book, BatB, and Lion King all made over 60% overseas. Something will look suss and there may be a lot of interesting interpretations, especially considering that the movie seems to be solid at around 95% audience approved in the USA.
THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Any chance we could actually see an increase today and tomorrow for TLM? I know it would be unprecedented, but I am just wondering if it could muster up enough to touch $100 million for the 3-day and over $125m for the 4-day.