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jedijake

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Posts posted by jedijake

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

    I really do hope Snow White gets cancelled and Disney can focus on making new and innovative movies then cheap knock offs that don't work. The live action remake buzz has died as quick as the dystopia buzz died with Hunger Games despite them till this day trying to push Dystopian stories.

    Well they won't. But even if Disney were to cancel everything that has been greenlit, they still won't make anything innovative. Not their style. Not anyone's style actually.

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, TEE said:

    I have seen you and numerous American commentators claiming that Shang Chi was a "hit" or even a "triumph". 

    Could explain me why you say that? It had a really abysmal box office, given its budget it probably even lost money for the studio during its theatrical release. So why exactly is it a triumph?

    there was a worldwide pandemic at the time. plus it was the biggest box office success since the pandemic started

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by jedijake

    7 minutes ago, Claudio said:

    Disney’s box office future looking bleak. Almost all their IPs are damaged now.

     

    - Marvel brand has weakened. Not strong as it used to. Too inconsistent and need to have string of good films to earn the audiences back.

    - Lucasfilm: Star Wars is on halt and maybe won’t come again to cinema for the next 4-5 years and no more Indi, the final adventure will release this year and also not looking good.

    - WDAS is on life support with hattrick of flops (Encanto, Raya and strange world). Frozen 3 and Moana 2 can’t come soon enough.

    - 20th Century never release blockbuster movie under Disney. Many are flops and middle hit at best.

    - They are running out of Live Action remakes story.  Next are Snow White with many controversies surrounding it.

    - Pixar is dead.

     

    The only thing still shines bright is Avatar. But it only come once in two years. 
    Disney probably needs to rely more on original films like the upcoming Haunted Mansions.

     

    It’s amazing how much has changed since 2019 when Disney seemed to monopolize the film industry with their tremendous success. One pandemic and here we are.

     

    Some truths, half-truths and some non-truths.

    * MCU has weakened but had some triumphs (Shang Chi, GOTG3, MOM, BP WF.) Not all a loss.

    * SW-yeah probably some truth there BUT shows have been well liked for the most part. Writer's strike will put a damper on progress on the new films.

    *WDAS-that is false for the most part. Strange World-yes, total flop. But Encanto and Raya can't be judged due to the pandemic. Encanto created a bit of a culture phenom and would have excelled outside a pandemic.

    *20th Century-Avatar, Nuff said. Probably nothing else matters for them.

    *Pixar-Elementals will probably not do well. However, let's see what Inside Out 2 does. Pixar really seems to be the one impacted by D+ the most.

    * Live actions-TLM really should have been the last one made for theaters. It was the last of the true renaissance films to be made into live-action so there was no doubt.

     

    Bottom line is that Disney needs a new property-either something fresh or a book series (like Keeper of the Lost Cities). But we're talking MASSIVE risks because budgets aren't getting any cheaper for theatricals. And the writer strike won't help things.

     

    • Like 5

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by jedijake

    29 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

    @charlie Jatinder expecting at $30s range

     

    June 9th

     

    Since, distributor is Disney, so you should not have hope at all. Ever since, cinema re-opened, Disney hasn't been able to deliver a single hit.

    I'm not going to touch that one. Better just leave that as "agree to disagree" and go from there.

     

    And define "hit". (DS MOM, AvWOW, BPWF,GOGT3, Shang Chi, even the panned ThLaT were all hits).

    • Like 1

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Boxx93 said:

    Next week. But its not looking good there either. 

    Then there's really something weird going on that would make an interesting investigation/study. I have theories, but don't want to make this a COVID/race relation thread. Been there done that.

     

    As for domestic, TLM should pull in $40-$45 million in its second weekend. WOM is great (despite what the conspiracy theorists here are saying). Thereafter, it should drop on average of 35% per weekend (emphasize average-some more some less). The mid-weeks should be at or close to the weekends since it's summer. So we're still probably looking at around $320-$330 million domestic which would be about 90+% of Aladdin. Pretty damn good considering all the backlash.

    • Like 2

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Any debate about TLM's domestic success is really just splitting hairs. Sure, most people wanted a $100 m 3-day and it fell short, But while it may not make over Aladdin's domestic, it isn't going to be all that drastically different. It will probably end up around $330 million which is pretty damn good.

     

    As for the foreign, I don't think there's any way anyone could ever have predicted what is happening in Asia unless they had an absolute pulse on the mentality there. Let's also wait to see what happens with Japan.

     

    When does it come out in Japan?

    • Like 2

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Kalo said:

     

    I think some of the lower ratings are being taking down to bring it's ratings up yes. they basically already admitted to doing that to anything that could be the target of review bombing. which some of them maybe are. but not all. and I am saying that that is a tiny sample of people who see the movie. most people don't go to rotten tomatoes to rate a film right after seeing it, I don't. Letterboxd is a better place imo. and to a lessor extent IMDB. to see what people actaully think of it that and just asking people what they thought of it in public. 

    Okay, so you're saying it's all one big conspiracy. 

    • Haha 1

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Kalo said:

     

    ON Rotten Tomatoes? :lol: that's not an audience score, that's a micro sampling of the real world. and some of the reviews are probably being sifted through right now. also I saw the movie. aside from the two leads the movie as a lot of issues and just isn't as great as it should be. 

    So you're saying that the 95% is fake and most of those verified reviews are fake? And cinemascore is fake? Is that what you are implying?

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by jedijake

    4 minutes ago, Kalo said:

    $117m 4-Opening is fine. you people need to chill. sure it didn't make that coveted $100m+ 3-day opening, but there is alot in play for that. it's much more female friendly than most Disney films, it's reviews and WoM, while not awful, is not great either and people seem pretty mixed on weather they like it or not. And how many great Disney live action re-makes have there been? 2 maybe? they are tired of what is being perceived as laziness. I don't think swapping Ariel's race had much impact tbh. and Hailey was great so.

     

    WOM not great? It has a solid 95% audience rating. How is that "not great"?

     

    As far as creativity, what motivation is there? Anything that any studio does that is "new" fails miserably and has done so since the first Avatar. That's a LONG stretch of time without a successful new IP. Then along comes streaming which is the official home of new IP's.

     

    Disney's problem is that they are also not making new IP's for D+. Get some of the creative animated writers to come up with a new live action story or a popular book series (like Keepers of the Lost Cities) for a movie or series on D+. Then, IF it becomes popular (like Stranger Things), use it as a launch pad for a movie event in the theater.

     

    Or have an interesting series and have the finale of each season go exclusively to theaters for a while. Then a grand finale for the entire series also in the theaters but perhaps in trilogy form, with a bigger budget. 

     

    I'm really shocked that executives haven't utilized the popularity of streaming to fuse their streaming services with major theatrical opportunities. At least Disney is trying to do that to revitalize SW (or so we're told) with Filoni's work. 

    • Like 2

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    LOLOLOLOL@ all the people arguing about which CEO is better, as if that has anything to do with a money's box office numbers. That's funny stuff.

     

    Someone said it best (can't find the post now). The overseas box office is SO low that the reason must be very simple. Just not sure what that simple explanation is. But I highly doubt that Asian markets give a rats ass about Disney or Florida politics.

     

     

    • Like 3

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by jedijake

    All of this, quite frankly, is why I don't really care about overseas box office numbers. It's like trying to predict if a pet goldfish will be able to survive on Mars. It's for studios to worry about.

     

    This probably goes back to my days of obsessively following music charts (80's and early 90's) before Soundscan. Never cared how songs were doing on other countries' charts and never cared one bit about the sales chart since that is not what I heard on the radio.

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by jedijake

    We'll see how things pan out domestically and what it's drops are here on out.

     

    Internationally though, that will be and should be a VERY interesting discussion and debate for the ages. That's not just low. The overseas numbers feels like a kind of movement.

     

    Btw, does anyone know what the UK openings for Aladdin, Lion King, or BatB were?

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, grim22 said:

    I'm wondering about the Snow White movie starring Zegler and Gadot. Zegler hasn't exactly been in any movie which has set the box office on fire so far and Gadot is not a draw. I don't think there's any iconic songs in there either.

     

    And obviously there's going to be a lot of online discourse about an Hispanic actress being Snow White. I wonder if we will be able to comp it to Mirror, Mirror.

     

    As we have seen in almost every genre of movies, it's the late-to-the-party movies which suffer the most.

    Are they even having dwarves in it? And I think I read that there's no prince in it. If true, it's gonna be ugly!!!

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

    So this is problematic to say, but my general sense of Little Mermaid compared to the other Disney remakes has always been that it is much more "girlie" a property. Not to make myself look bad, but I wasn't going to see this movie with the adult male friends I saw Aladdin and Lion King with. It just doesn't have the action-adventure elements the other Disney remakes had, and obviously the demographic data reflects that it crossed over way less. I think the casting of Halle actually probably saved Little Mermaid from doing something more like 75m by making it a movie for little girls of all races, not just little white girls. Not to say the toxic racism didn't have an impact, of course.

    There is nothing wrong with saying that and I think there has been a lot of truth to that all along. There's a little bit less of a "cool" factor in TLM than in TLK and Aladdin because it is SO female oriented. They may also have been a little bit heavy handed on the fact that this is a film finally for little black girls.

     

    That said, how does it explain the success of BatB though? Did the Beast and Gaston make it more male-friendly?

     

    But, to think that a few days ago people wondered if it could make $400 mill domestic and now wonder about $300 mill is a very quick downturn. Posting $100 million for the OW will look so much better for Disney than something between $95-$99 million. The former can be touted as a triumph. The latter feels like a misfire.

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, M37 said:

    Its not that sales petered out, but more that the expected casual audience, somewhat for walk-ups in metro areas but moreso attendance generally outside of them ... just didn't show up like they normally do for a release of this size. All of the extrapolation and forecasts were based on the typical ratios, and it sure seems like the mid and lower tier markets especially, the more casual Fri and Sat crowd generally, had a lot of expected/usual audience opt out of this release ... for "reasons"

    It would be very interesting to see the regional percentages (northeast, southeast, midwest, etc.) compared to Aladdin's regional percentages.

    • Like 1

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, M37 said:

    Thursday to Fri to Sat is more movie dependent, but once we have that Sat number in hand, Sun and beyond tend to follow more typical day/day change patterns.

     

    Black led films tend to over-perform on Sundays relative to baseline, but with the holiday already boosting numbers it would probably be a best a <5% increase (like $31M), not enough to get to the century mark, unless actuals come way up (or they find $$ in Puerto Rico). TGM was the best in top 10 last Memorial Day Sunday at -3.5%, albeit against a Game 7 of NBA EFC

    But like I said, I have a hard time believing they will just leave it at $98 or $99 million for the weekend. Actuals may be higher than the estimates we've seen.

    THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by jedijake

    52 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

    Needs 32m . Aladdin jumped 0.4% so expecting the same for TLM

    If it makes $30 or $31 million today, do you really think they won't fudge it and bump it to make $100 million? I can't see them posting a $98 or $99 million opening weekend. A headline like "Little Mermaid splashes to a huge $100 million opening weekend" looks a lot better than "Little Mermaid missed the century mark with $98 million". The latter would help its legs. Actuals may tell a different story than what we've seen.

     

    What's interesting about this is that everyone was skeptical about using Aladdin as a comp because it was pre-pandemic. As it turns out, it was the best comp BUT, looking back, using that comp put the previews for TLM higher. So, the real question is why did sales peter out for TLM at the 11th hour before release?

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