jedijake
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Posts posted by jedijake
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Bad reviews (if it stays consistent) following a panned 4th movie, 15 years ago is NOT a good place to be. Tack on little to no appeal for audiences under 30 and there's really no good news for this movie.
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How did this go from 60% to 43% but still has the same number of reviews it did with 60%?
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Unless GOTG3's holds are insanely good, TLM will win the summer domestically. Not sure about WW. But if you look at the overall early reviews for TLM versus IJ:DOD, the difference is clear as day.
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Oh, I think that the box office run for this movie will be a rough ride. I wonder how that will affect Mangold's involvement in Star Wars.
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This looks absoFRIGGINlutely incredible!!!!
Is this an original story or is it based on a book? Regardless, this is what cinemas need-something new and epic!!!
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8 minutes ago, dudalb said:
GOd, why the hate for Indian Jones?
Not hate. I love Indy. One of my favorite franchises of all time. And a lot of others love it too. Objectively, though, the movie doesn't have much to offer to young people. At least TGM had.....young people in it.
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49 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:
Nah not even close. Don't see this doing much better than Aladdin at best.
Dom it's beating Aladdin. OS not sure .see it doing 85-110m japan but it's not touching SK 90m for Aladdin. China has never been hot on Live action remakes .
Don't know how Latin and Europe markets will fare .
550-650m range OS.
The only thing I see having a chance against super Marios is Indy5 with insane level WOM legging to 550-600m+ Dom and TGM numbers OS.
Indy5 has no one to market to. The movie has absolutely zero appeal to anyone younger than 30, little appeal if any to people in their 30's.. Indiana Jones is a long forgotten franchise without the modern luxuries of video games, toys, tv shows, etc. It will be lucky to hit much over $300 million and may not even get that much. TLM will be head to head with GOTG3 for the summer title.
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Please do not let this become a Barbie thread 10 days before TLM's release.
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Is Disney allowed to use these early reactions in their marketing campaign?
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I think this movie is going to suffer. We can't compare it to TGM. TGM had the older person appeal, but also had plenty of young person appeal. Indy is a legend, but it has pretty much ZERO young person appeal and didn't even attempt to cast anyone that teens and 20-somethings could relate to.
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There's a very good shot that TLM will be the biggest summer film of '23. Not sure how GOTG3's legs will hold up, but that one's already doing very well so it may be close. SM:ATSV could also take off with some daddy long legs, but there could be a real battle on our hands this summer.
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29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
But its not at SH level presales as well. Its maintaining certain levels in big urban markets after starting good but not at blockbuster level. Just comp it with Spiderverse which is 60% higher at MTC1 despite starting a week earlier. I would not say 150m even for Spiderverse if it pulls a MCU level final week. Only time will tell based on reviews and final week push.
It almost feels most like Toy Story 4. Different time of the year, but that may not be a bad comp to use.
I'm not sure if we should be kicking out comps due to pre or post covid. There's no real post covid precedent for TLM. I think the combination of various post covid comps that have been used along with the pre covid comps (Aladdin, BatB, Froz2, and I'd throw in TS4) can give us good insight on where TLM may be heading.
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31 minutes ago, vafrow said:
Prepandemic films make for very difficult comps. There has been a significant change around culture of advance ticket buying since that point.
The last theatrical Disney live action was Cruella, but also being really early in return to theatres, it's not a great comp if people have it available.
I think that is a generalization. We don't know how the culture of advance ticket buying has changed for movies like TLM. So movies like BatB and Aladdin may be just fine for comps. They've fallen in line with other movies that have been used as post-pandemic comps.
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So....at this point we STILL can't say that TLM's previews will probably be between $12-$14 million?
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On 5/13/2023 at 3:50 PM, Reddroast said:
I HAVE to disagree here. Audiences do want original blockbusters. It's that the studios that don't market them properly and thus audiences don't know about them
I agree. It's kind of a Catch-22 though. People really want something new and original (even if there are scatterings of nostalgia). But once something new does come along, people are reluctant these days to give it a chance because of attention spans.
It is possible for something to come along that is based on a book or book series BUT no books have really caught fire in a very long time. We have Game of Thrones for TV. We also have super popular original TV series that caught on big time such as Stranger Things and Walking Dead. But if any of those had been proposed to a studio exec for a theatrical event, they'd probably never see the light of day. Studios just don't want to take any chances with new IP's. If they do, they will hand out VERY low budgets and the film would turn out poorly and be panned.
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21 minutes ago, DAJK said:
LOL Transformers has sold ONE ticket at my locals for Thursday previews. One.
ONE!!
Bomb for the ages folks. Tracking across the country is poor as well. Not going to be surprised if this does Shazam numbers domestically TBH, unless by some miracle it’s amazing.
We talking Dark Phoenix/Terminator Dark Fate levels?
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Is it really a thing that other countries would reject TLM because Ariel is black? I mean-is that really a consideration?
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56 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
They are going to end up liking it. Most of them have kids so they'll see the movie and find out that they actually like Ariel cause she is sweet, charming, funny, likable the opposite of smug, unlikable, angry "strong woman" sterotype that they dunk on. Normal audience is tried of that sterorype too so LM is going to make a big bank and then some. Likeable character = repeat business. It's no rocket science.
Like I said, the biggest factor for this movie is Ariel. And by every account so far, Hallie NAILED it and is going to be the world's sweetheart (or at least America's). Praise for McCarthy and Diggs are just icing on the cake.
In Aladdin, Smith was the draw and got the praise while the others were competent (except maybe Jafar). In this one, Bailey is the true star and it seems most of the others are more than just competent. It will get enough repeat viewings, especially in July when there's nothing left to see. Aladdin was still going strong in July.
Aladdin may have gone better at the box office upon release, but I truly think that TLM may have become more beloved over time.
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1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:
Apparently watching this can get you into trouble with the law in Florida
This is the situation with showing ANY Disney movie in any classroom. Anyone could theoretically get in trouble for showing a Disney movie in school, but that had been at the hands of Disney (even though it is actually good advertising for Disney). But the state? I never heard of that. If it is against the school or district policy, then so be it. But for the state to be involved?
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Transformers is DOA. Fast X still has an audience and has fallen more slowly. But Transformers....let's call it a blown Transformer.
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1 hour ago, Maggie said:
Has this been posted? TLM tracking is increasing
Are they talking about the 3-day or 4-day opening for TLM?
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After looking at these comps, I wonder if BOP is going to adjust the OW for Mermaid quite a bit.
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Have they pretty much shown the entire movie in clips at this point?
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1 minute ago, Porthos said:
One cautionary note about TLM is that it's having an extremely early social media embargo lift which is gonna boost ticket sales right now in the pre-sale run compared to some other films and it won't be seeing a boost from social media reacts when those films have their social media lifts.
It'll all smooth itself out over time but does mean one has to keep it in mind when observing day to day patterns.
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As for predicts? All I feel safe in saying is that TLM will probably hit double digit previews, starting with a "1". Everything else after that I really couldn't say. Especially since films that look to be skewed toward women tend, and I do mean tend, to be a bit more frontloaded than other entrants in their genres.
This is one of the reasons why Scream VI, though all in all not a great comp due to ATP differences, does indeed have some value and @M37 is right to ask for it (just slipped my mind to include it last night with everything else going on).
But isn't a movie like TLM also custom made for walk ups or ticket sales close to OW?
2023 Box Office Predictions and Discussion
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Switch #2 and #7 and this list looks almost perfect.