Tokugennumataka
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Everything posted by Tokugennumataka
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Thinking 700-750k imo. Enough for 650k+ Thursday and 10M+ 3day weekend. 4day can stay flat from last weekend. Excellent
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This is one of the best calendar setups M3GAN could ask for. Word of mouth is solid. Friday being the 13th should provide a nice boost and Sunday drop will be mellowed. Can see 18M+ for 3 day.
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So I guess the question remains... which will get to 660M first, Titanic or Avatar 2? My current calculations roughly place them both the same time.
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Also would be surprised if Puss Stat above 750K for Mon.
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As I've been saying few days now, 3.6M would've been pretty good. While everyone was jumping on the 4.5M bandwagon, we need to consider the runtime taking a relatively heavy toll on weekdays along with the championship games. It's a perfectly fine drop. 3M Thursday will still likely mean 32-33M+ 3day and 40-42+ 4 day.
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3.6 4.8 3.3 3.1 // 14.8 Looks like a great performance for a 3.5 hr movie for weekdays imo. Can easily see an 8/14/11/8 case for next weekend with those weekdays.
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Wednesday looks off. No way its gonna be 10% higher than Monday.
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I feel we also have to factor in the long runtime here along with the game. I'd absolutely consider 3.6M a win here.
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You have to take the weekend numbers into consideration too. Before the weekend, A2 needed 181M to beat JW. 181/45 = 4x. Just like OW, for instance, a movie making 100M total from a 50M OW has 100/50 = 2x. It's (total - pre weekend gross)/weekend number for legs, atleast that's the metric I use.
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<4x this weekend is hardly what I'll call implosion, but I get your point.
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
Tokugennumataka replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
The original did around 194M WW this week FWIW. -
So...The two leggiest 100M openers ever were released within 7 months of each other.
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I mean, he checks all his regular boxes here... streaming is devil incarnate, pandemic slaughtered theaters forever etc.
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Many places had holidays these last weekdays. In fact, 14M is a pretty good total for its weekdays. Let's say it does 13-13.5M on Sunday, I can see: Mon - 3.4 (-75%) Tue - 4.6 (+35%) Wed - 3.2 (-30%) Thu - 3.0 (-6%) // 14.2M weekdays
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Yup. Huge Saturday bump was expected. Needless to say, came in higher than/high end of expectations. But those 14-15M Sunday predictions will not age well. Sunday night shows have a good chance of dying out. 12.5-13M should be considered a good drop imo.
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Just realised next Friday is the 13th. In combination with MLK day, good wom and no competition, could we see a 'smile'-ish hold for M3G next week?
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Biggest second weekend increase ever is a big enough record I'll say. All other records... only to satisfy the nerds within us.
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Don't think there's another example in 21st century, atleast for wide releases anyway. The Greatest Showman's legs were an anomaly for the modern era.
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Avatar: The Way of Water grossed an estimated $11.42069M on Friday...
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Technically the movie actually 'made' 11M, also true for all millions from 0-11. But didn't actually 'make' 12M.
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Plenty of 80s and 90s films. ET, Titanic on a grander scale. Also check out My Big Fat Greek Wedding.
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Pussy reigns supreme. 3rd weekend bigger than opening weekend. Greatest showman who???
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That Avatar 1 Sun drop is just mindblowing. Average non kiddie pic dropped 40-47% that Sunday, meanwhile Avatar chilled casually with a 30% better hold in that single day. A2 should see better Sat jump, prolly closer to 70% imo and a 35-40% ease off on Sunday. Thinking 42M would be appropriate for this weekend.
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If the audience interest remains high, A2 will leg out spectacularly. The marketplace is big. It can handle two different movies, with likely minimal audience overlap between them, making bank. For reference, see Avatar 1, it faced multiple 15M+ openers debuting in 3,000+ cinemas in the same weekend along with a 30M+ opener, and came our unfazed. It happened because the audience interest and positive word of mouth was fueling repeat viewings.
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The reasoning was that M3GAN being PG-13 might see better drop than other R rated horror flicks. Also OWs should see smaller Sat bumps and slightly lower Sun drops.
