Tokugennumataka
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Everything posted by Tokugennumataka
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Tue - 9.0M Wed - 6.0M Thu - 5.5M Fri - 9.5M Sat - 15.3M Sun - 10.2M - 35M (-48%) 503M by Sunday.
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Maybe Tue, Fri, Sat x2, Sun for A2. If ultra leggy can see another Sat. So total 23 as a best case, 21 and a tie with TFA looks reasonable.
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By 15th weekend switch that to My Big Fat Greek wedding
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Still think these set of weekdays and the entire weekend is impacted by it recapturing lost business from the storm. Would be really impressive if next weekend stayed above 35M.
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It's not out of the realms of the possibility that it gets the all time 3rd WE record. That's insane.
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Ecstatic for Avatwo Going off R1s holds for the weekend: Fri - 21.5M Sat - 17.3M Sun - 19.8M // 58.6M (-7%) Mon - 18.8M - 435M by Jan 2 And to think it has been having much better holds than R1, the weekend could get in that 60-63M range. Incredible!!!
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
Tokugennumataka replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
It will be awfully close to 850M on Sunday. I believe it'll be disgustingly close to 1B by Tuesday (990+). Maybe 1.27-1.3B by Sunday?? (~405+875?). That's enough for 1.75-1.85B finish or so. -
Prolly but setting a baseline as a worst case scenario. Still think 45-50M is the likely range. Can't really be sure when one-third of the country's population is being affected.
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Based on how huge this storm actually is, I'm willing to lower my Thu expectations to 11M. Hopefully Friday stays flat, but may go below 10M and Sat looks definitely like sub 10M. Thu - 11M Fri - 11M (+0%, -79%) Sat - 7.5M (-32%, -84%) Sun - 17.5M (+133%, -52%) 36M weekend (-73%)
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Should add another 70M+ OS entering the weekend (~460M). Dom can add 32M (~200M). ~660M WW. FSS was 255M OS. Believe it can do 110M+ this weekend and 65M Dom. ~835M WW by Sunday. Billion by next Wednesday?
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When does the storm peak?
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Reassessment of numbers: Mon - 16.2M Tue - 15.5M Wed - 12.8M Thu - 14.2M Fri - 18.6M (Adjusted for snowstorm) Sat - 12.2M Sun - 23.2M // 2nd WE - 54M (-60%) Mon - 26.6M Tue - 19.8M Wed - 16.4M Thu - 16.0M Fri - 17.6M Sat - 13.2M Sun - 16.8M // 3rd WE - 47.6M (-12%) Mon - 16.5M 18 day total - 389.7M. Final total - 506M (3.77x)
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Under 17M wud be a panic situation. 17-18M is within expectations. 18-19 would be fantastic and 19-20 would be gobsmacking good imo.
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Thu 12/25 - 17M Fri 12/16 - 17M + 36M Sat 12/17 - 43M Sun 12/18 - 35M (131M) Mon 12/19 - 17M Tue 12/20 - 17M Wed 12/21 - 14M Thu 12/22 - 15.5M Fri 12/23 - 22M Sat 12/24 - 14.5M Sun 12/25 - 25M (61.5M 2nd WE, -53%) Mon 12/26 - 28.5M The 12/27 - 21M Wed 12/28 - 17.5M Thu 12/29 - 17M Fri 12/30 - 19M Sat 12/31 - 15M Sun 1/1 - 19M (53M 3rd WE, -14%) Mon 1/2 - 19M 18- day domestic total - 412M. On its way to ~535M. (Updated projections)
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What's that in admits?
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How leggy is SK usually, particularly during Xmas/NY?
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I mean it could do just 6.5-7x IM and still have fantastic legs, like TGM.
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Yup. For instance, taking TGM, its iM was 6.5x. That's obviously very good, but there was nothing in that figure to indicate that ultra leggy run (apart from the reception obviously, but even that's a stretch).
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Hyper Bull Case 1350(205x6.5) - 950(240x4) - 2400(400x6) Bull Case 1050(190x5.5) -750(205x3.6) - 1750(350x5) Base Case 850(175x5) - 550(180x3) - 1450(320x4.5) Bear Case 650(160x4) - 400(160x2.5) - 1150(300x3.8) Puny Bear Case 460(140x3.3) - 300(140x2.1) - 800(260x3)
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Wow. Definitely some weird patterns. Could it be because PLFs are almost sold out and lack of non PLF shows hurting it. People could be waiting to watch it 'the right way'.
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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)
Tokugennumataka replied to Olive's topic in China At The Box Office
About 68% theaters open now. Can we hit 80%+ by OD? -
I guess the review bump is in full flow now.
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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
Tokugennumataka replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
Pretty confident in a 150M+ opening now. Should take out NWH WW OW and maybe even IW -
Still continuing to gain over JWD. Routine uptick over all comps sans TGM. Hopefully they all converge over 20M
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First of all, I've given 259M for A2, more than NWH. Secondly, NWH had ungodly late legs. It's already close to the ceiling that there's not much room for improvement. Third, lose of PLFs and 3D throughout Jan and early Feb might hurt it more than we expect it to. Remember that Avatar had unremarkable holds after it lost premium screens and 3D (to Alice in Wonderland).
