Tokugennumataka

What's with the doomposting jimbo? Have you abandoned your own movie

M3GAN: 10.75 (2.75 + 8 9.5 (-12%) 6.2 (-35%) // 26.5M Avatwo: 10.9 (+63%) 17.5 (+60%) 11.7 (-33%) // 40.1M

Gonna assume actuals come in at ~6.75M. Sub 10M Fri, nah. Can see as low as 10.5, but prolly reaches around 11M or so.

Ah yes, with 7M, over TGM was locked. But with 6.5M, won't even reach 550M.

It's not R1 per se. It's the entire calendar configuration. It would have to hold as well as Sing, a kiddie pic with boosted Fri/Sat and lighter Sun drops, to reach 42M, which frankly seems a but much. Not saying it can't happen, but that's the reasoning behind it.

Ah cool. So muted jumps should be expected.

Do many OS markets have schools off or holidays these weekdays or something? 'cause these numbers look insanely strong to me. Normal FSS pattern would suggest something like 34/64/50 for ~150M FSS or so.

At that point billionaires are gonna be renting all theaters for their personal use so make that ATP like $10k.

PiB killin' it. 2M+ Thu lookin good now. If it follows Sing from there, $13.1M (bigger than OW). Freakin' good

Meh 4th Saturday.

Disastrous hold 😆

Obviously the numbers themselves are impressive but they're more of a function of calender than anything else. For instance, Avatwo had the worst hold (percentage wise) for any film in the top 10. Meanwhile the original registered the best hold in its top 10 by quite some margin. It was obvious by then that it was gonna have the best hold for 4th weekend. The same cannot be said for the sequel. Now, one could assume the longer runtime hurting the late weekday showtimes and be right, but I'd keep the weekend expectations in check (simply because all other films had better drops).

Yeah I do know that but in 2017 only 'Why Him' increased week to week in the Top 10. The next best hold was Moana with -12%, which being a kiddie pic had strong Sat bumps. But happy to be wrong though!

10.5 7.2 6.5 11 17.5 11.6 40.1M 4th weekend. Frankly cannot see this Sat bigger that last Sat. Still possible though.

It's not dropping 14% on a normal Sunday.

The 26% drop the original Avatar experienced on 4th Sunday is such an anomaly with NFL games devouring nights and impending workdays. Normal behavior would suggest a 35 to early 40s drop for Avatwo.

Ecstatic for PiB. Can definitely see 2M Thursday. Sing went 6.57x Thursday while Chipwrecked went 8.83x Thu. Sing comp is enough for 13M+, off just 22% from last week and BIGGER than OW lol. If by some miracle, it gets close to that Chipwrecked comp...

All Disney star wars films had strange weekend behaviors. For TLJ and TROS one could attribute that poor weekend bumps to poor wom but even TFA had measly Fri bumps post holidays.

NWH had gigantic late legs partially boosted by Canada reopening. It held on strong through Feb and March. Avatwo's legs after it loses PLFs and 3D remains to be seen (Keep in mind that even the original Avatar had unremarkable holds after it lost 3D to Alice in Wonderland). Using a single data point to compare it to NWH is faulty. Let the post holiday legs brew and manifest before drawing any meaningful assumptions imo.

6.5M should be a good target for Thursday imo. 2017 calendar run is enough for 10.4/15.6/10.6 for 36.6 (-46%). Reasonable low end prediction I'd say. Meanwhile, 2012 calender run gives us 14.9/22.4/12.5 for 49.8 (-26%).

Again, they're saying it's a great number but that should be expected because it's been performing that well for the past 8 or 9 days and calendar comps give those numbers.

There are too many variables even while using similar calender configuration imo. In 2017, Fri/Sat/Sun amount to around +60/+50/-32 for the Top 10 while in 2012, it was much larger (+129/+50/-44). Good chance Avatwo doesn't follow either patterns but a hybrid pattern like NWH last year.

I thought you were a firm believer in the 652M ceiling club. Bold of you to raise it to 653M.

Wow a 13% drop. R1 only dropped 5%. This is a 2.6x worse drop. R1 made 91.3M after this. So A2 can only make 91.3/2.6 = 35.1M after this. Flop!!!. No, my logic is infallible and this is the only objective measure of its future legs. 😋

Why on earth would Sat dip from Fri and Sun increase over Sat??