VTKajin

The focus is on Big Barda and Mister Miracle vs the Female Furies. Scale doesn't have to be insane.

Shazam shouldn't have a problem making $700M as long as it opens big in NA. The new trailer is coming soon, so hopefully hype can skyrocket.

If Aquaman's 2nd week drop is only 20% then $330-340M finish is likely.

Batman and Superman are overexposed. Superman hasn't been a huge hit in ages. Also, Reeves doesn't want Affleck but that doesn't apply to other DCEU movies like BoP, Batgirl, SS2, etc.

Did they miss the giant DC logo opening? lol

I think it's safe to say at least a 4.5x multi for Aquaman. Just want to note that the Christmas Eve drop and Christmas increase for AQ are both better than National Treasure 2, so 5x is still in play.

Probably will be $400-440M. Don't see it going lower with its current performance.

How did they come up with those numbers? Trajectory? Either way, funny that Desolation of Smaug opened a week earlier back when it released than Aquaman but Aquaman will have almost caught up with it at the end of this weekend. $260M dom is the floor for Aquaman, then. $300M is very much in the cards. Gonna try my hand at this, using The Hobbit as a comp: Weekend 1 - $73M incl. all previews Weekend 2 - $52M+ (could totally drop even less), ~$180M total Weekend 3 - $28M+, $245M Weekend 4 - $15M, $270M Weekend 5 - $10M, $285M Weekend 6 - $5.5M, $296M Weekend 7 - $3M, $300M Just realized National Treasure 2 is a waaaay better comp since it opened on the same weekend. Weekend 1 - $73M Weekend 2 - $52M+, ~$190M total Weekend 3 - $28M, $255M Weekend 4 - $15M, $280M Weekend 5 - $10M, $295M Weekend 6 - $6.5M, $305M Weekend 7 - $4M, $310M Rest of the weeks would add up to maybe $15M. If weekend 2 is more like $54-55M, then the total would be around $340-345M.

If Aquaman's weekend drops less than 10% than I'd say we're definitely looking at a 4-5x multiplier, which puts $300M back on the table for sure.

If you look at typical legs for the season in markets that have holiday legs and how good WoM is in Asia, they're solid projections and likely to be close to the final totals. I'll gladly update the numbers as time goes on, but I'm confident in its performance. As for ROW, Venom made $256M in the markets I listed sans China and then received another $116M ROW. A bit higher on both counts for AQ isn't unlikely. Will likely be close to BvS, which made $305M in those markets sans China and then $140M ROW.

Just look at how it's holding in the top 15 non-China markets. I broke it down on the last page. It's a foregone conclusion that it'll make at least $400M OS-C (possibly up to $440M).

It was more that they had nothing that could fill Flash's release slot and they'd rather have 3+ movies in 2020 than 2.

Just because we haven't "heard" anything about it (even though we actually have, Reeves said back in August that his first draft of the script would be turned in during September, which it was, and that filming would start around May or June, which it most likely will) doesn't mean things aren't moving along. And it's not any more unwise to have WW in June and Batman in say, August, than it is to have BP in February and IW in April or CM in March and Endgame in April. It will be finished by November. It was just delayed to retake the June release date WW had because Joker is in October and The Flash couldn't make June 2020,

Why wait a whole year? They have plans for 2021, not limited to The Flash, Batgirl, and Supergirl.

Batman is definitely summer 2020 unless something happens between now and June, when filming begins according to scoopers/insiders.

$30M as high as it can go with these rates?

Dom is indeed early to call. This weekend is interesting because rarely does a blockbuster open on Christmas weekend. Legs could be 4x+. Also, depending on Australia's and Japan's performances, Aquaman OS sans China can match BvS. Brazil's exchange rates are iffy and I'm not sure about Taiwan's and Philippine's legs, but I think we're definitely looking at $700M combined OS. Projected totals: China - $280M (extension is likely) UK - $25M (it'll be tough but I think it can do it) Brazil - $30M+ Mexio - $22-25M France - ~$25M Germany - ~$20M Russia - $18M+ (could be higher depending) South Korea - $30M+ India - $10M Indonesia - $15M Taiwan - $10-15M Philippines - $10-15M Remaining markets without any solid numbers or have yet to open: Spain - $10M Italy - $10M Japan - $15-20M Australia - $30M+ Hong Kong - $10M That would be ~$570-590M from these top markets, with ROW bringing in maybe $130-150M+ more.

Deadline being admittedly conservative bodes well.

Those first week totals are fantastic.

Any chance cinemas regret this soon and give screens to AQ?

Thought experiment, had the Saturday and Wednesday previews not been offered, would that audience have shown up to Thursday previews? Additionally, what was the level of double-dipping, I wonder? EDIT: And if early previews weren't offered, would there have been as much interest in Thursday previews? 🤨 I suspect that the more accurate preview number to use for projections is closer to $13.7M than it is to $9M, but I have nothing to back that up.

Nothing's impossible, but it's unlikely.

Article explains the audience was skewed older. Aquaman won't have this issue.

WoM will cause it to overperform both on previews and overall weekend. $85M+ incoming!!

https://deadline.com/2018/12/aquaman-bumblebee-christmas-thursday-night-previews-weekend-box-office-1202524462/ EXCLUSIVE, Thursday 7:48PM: At this point in time, we’re hearing that Warner Bros./DC’s Aquaman is hooking a Thursday night between $8M-$10M. Meanwhile, Paramount’s Bumblebee is driving to an evening total between $2M-$2.5M. Both pics started showtimes at 5PM looking to capitalize on 15% K-12 schools off today, in addition to 78% colleges on break per ComScore. Confident it'll overperform tbh.